Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

372
FXUS63 KDDC 141135
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
535 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers increasing in coverage and intensity overnight
  tonight. Heaviest rainfall amounts, up to one-half inch, most
  likely farther north (40-50% chance of 1/2" along K-96
  corridor)

- Strong winds and low humidity early next week will result in
  high fire danger early next week. Near critical to critical
  fire weather conditions possible on Tuesday.

- Strong winds possible on Tuesday. There is a 35-60% chance
  that wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1019 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Attention in the forecast is initially on the near term through the
day Saturday with our rainfall forecast. Our attention will
then turn to Tuesday of next week for potential High Wind and a
potentially high end Critical Fire Weather event.

The late evening water vapor loop and RAP objective analysis reveals
a broken up shortwave trough ejecting northeast from the base of the
larger scale trough. This broken up wave was once a well-formed
upper low off the coast of Baja California. Overall, models have
handled this ejection fairly poorly with frustrating run-to-run
inconsistencies among all three global models and their ensemble
systems. The initial wave of showers and thunderstorms was underway
from West Texas through northwestern Oklahoma. Other disorganized
shower activity was starting to develop across southwest Kansas, but
rainfall rates were pretty low per 1-hr MRMS QPE analysis (upwards
of 0.05" per hour). The heavier thunderstorms over northwestern
Oklahoma will probably clip portions of Barber County, but this
initial axis will mainly stay southeast of our forecast area.
After midnight and until around daybreak, showers will increase
in both coverage and intensity across southwest Kansas, so 1-hr
rainfall rates should increase to around 0.10 to 0.25"/hr in the
heaviest showers as they lift north-northeast.

The biggest change in the forecast is what is likely to happen now
after daybreak and through the day Saturday. Short term models,
including most CAMs, show the 700mb dry intrusion working in from
the southwest more robustly than previous models. Thus, areas south
of Highway 50 will likely see less precipitation than previous
forecasts while areas north toward I-70 will probably see more than
previous forecast given the shift north in forecast 700mb
deformation axis once it sets up and stalls out. The storm system
will pull away from western Kansas by Saturday afternoon and north
winds will increase to around 15 to 20 mph, but there is essentially
no tapping of cold air from the north, so the north winds will not
lead to a period of cold weather following this storm.

The overall pattern change early next week will be significant, and
Tuesday continues to be of concern with respect to both High Wind
potential and widespread, perhaps high end Critical Fire Weather
conditions. Deep leeside cyclogenesis will develop to the north of
southwest Kansas, and all models show very strong 850-700mb winds,
averaging 45-55 knots within this layer much of the day out of the
southwest to west-southwest. The classic downslope will allow the
boundary layer to really dry out and warm up, combined with the
strong winds. Given such a strong signal, we will continue to use
75th percentile NBM winds for Tuesday and a combination of 75th and
90th percentile NBM wind gusts. This is a well-collaborated forecast
adjustment off the baseline NBM from numerous WFOs and the WPC, so
continued thanks to all the neighbors and WPC for keeping a
consistent forecast going for Tuesday. Once we get the rain event
out of the way, we will likely begin to enter the watch phase of
Critical Fire Weather for Tuesday. The High Winds are a little less
certain at this time (not quite the 50% confidence level), so we
will need to lean on more model runs to gain more confidence in
where highest winds will be Tuesday afternoon, but the GFS and its
ensembles continue to support High Winds (gusts 58+ mph)
particularly along and west of Highway 83.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Early morning KDDC observations show widespread rainfall is
beginning to exit southwest KS, with HYS still within the
precipitation shield and only small, isolated showers in the
vicinity of DDC, GCK, and LBL. Despite precipitation exiting our
area, MVFR to LIFR cigs and vis will continue through at least
this evening, and potentially the entire period as erosion of
the low cigs from northwest to southeast will commence around
22Z, but some uncertainty remains regarding how far southeast
cigs will improve. Otherwise, current light and variable winds
will increase out of the north after 16Z, peaking during the
early/mid afternoon in the 14-18 kt range gusting to 25 kts, and
relaxing back to light and variable by 02-04Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Springer