Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

058
FXUS63 KDDC 032233
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably cool temperatures through the end of the work
  week.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across portions of
  southwest Kansas Thursday night and Friday night. Main risk
  from these storms will be large hail, gusty winds and periods
  of heavy rainfall.

- Heavy rainfall Thursday night and Friday night may result in
  isolated flash flooding, especially south and east of the
  Dodge City area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

At 7 am this morning a 500mb trough was located over western
Kansas with a surface cold front extending from an area of low
pressure in southwest Kansas northeast into Iowa. Gusty winds
and cold air were observed north of this cold front. Garden
City experienced the frontal passage between 8 and 9am with
gusty north winds of 25 to 35 mph and temperatures falling from
the 60s into the low to mid 50s. These colder temperatures will
spread across the remainder of southwest and south central
Kansas as the cold front moves into northwest Oklahoma and
central Kansas and the upper level trough moves into eastern
Kansas. Once the front exits southwest Kansas, the risk for
severe weather will end.

Tonight a cool dome of high pressure will begin building into
western Kansas. There will be a small chance (less than 15%) for
isolated storms near extreme southwest Kansas (Elkhart area)
moving in from Colorado overnight but further east the winds
will decreases to 10 mph or less and unseasonably cool
temperatures are expected during the overnight hours.

On Wednesday the surface high pressure will continue building
across western Kansas allowing a moist southeasterly upslope
flow to develop by late afternoon across southeast Colorado and
parts of southwest Kansas. This moist flow, combined with
increasing lift ahead of the next upper level trough will result
in scattered thunderstorms late in the day over southeast
Colorado. These storms are expected to increase in coverage and
move east/southeast overnight, reaching southwest Kansas late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

This pattern (storms developing over eastern Colorado in the
afternoon and moving into southwest Kansas overnight) is
expected to repeat late Thursday and again Friday as several
upper level waves cross the Rockies and enter the Central Plains
given continued moist upslope flow situated north of a warm
front, increasing afternoon instability and a mid level
baroclinic zone. The main uncertainty for the last half of the
work week is the exact storm track each night, as prior
convection may influence subsequent storm track. At this time,
confidence is moderate to high (50-70%) for thunderstorms
impacting southwest Kansas Thursday night. This is due to the
agreement on the location of a warm front, a 700mb temperature
gradient of 8-10C and a lower level moisture axis from the
ensemble and deterministic models. Large hail will be possible
early in the evening, with heavy rain and gusty winds becoming
the primary threats overnight as clusters of thunderstorms move
across southwest Kansas. PWAT values in excess of 90% of
climatology are currently forecast across southwest Kansas late
week which easily supports the current 24 hour rainfall forecast
ending at 7am Friday between 1 and 2 inches. There is even a
30-40% chance that rainfall totals Thursday night across south
central Kansas to exceed 2. Also the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic models have rainfall totals higher than this. As a
result of this heavy rainfall potential Thursday night there
may be some some water issues or even isolated flash flooding,
especially south and east of the Dodge City area where WPC has
placed a slight risk for excessive rainfall.

After the widespread rainfall Thursday night potential ends
early Friday the surface boundary is forecast to shift southward
as another upper level wave exits the Central Rockies and moves
out into the Plains by late day. A moist and unstable air mass
will still be in place north of our surface boundary so
conditions will still be favorable for another round of
widespread rainfall Friday night. This addition rainfall may
further add to the potential water issues near the Oklahoma
border.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MVFR cigs through mid/late evening will improve to more widespread
VFR conditions overnight into early Wednesday as a prevailing low
level stratus deck continues to lift/scatter out early in the period.
Gusty north winds will continue to slowly subside through late evening,
becoming more light and variable generally after 06-08Z as surface
high pressure spreads southeast through the Western High Plains into
western Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson