Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

318
FXUS63 KDDC 070454
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1054 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front will lower Saturday highs

- Sunday and Monday will warm back up into the 70/80s

- Precipitation potential, especially for the eastern zones,
  return middle of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The synoptic forecast is on track with the upper-level low situated
over the Four Corners region this evening. The system`s dryline
ended up positioning too far eastward for storms to develop in the
CWA this evenings, this has left a quiet night weather-wise for SW
Kansas. The cold front is sweeping through sharply shifting winds
from the north and dropping temperatures around 15 degrees. Lows
tonight are forecast in the 20/30s and result in a cooler Saturday.
Beyond Saturday, a weekend warm up is expected with otherwise
tranquil weather. Dry air through the stretch as Saturday highs heat
up to approach the 60s, 70s on Sunday, and pushing into the 80s on
Monday. Despite having lower relative humidities, especially Sunday
and Monday, winds are forecast to be light enough that there is not
a pressing fire weather concern nor the expectation of issuing fire
weather headlines.

Ensembles show the current system having the low splitting and
developing a closed low near the CONUS/Mexico border while zonal
flow takes over the rest of the country. Ensembles then have the
closed low ejecting early midweek around Tuesday. This will be the
next opportunity for impactful weather. As with most systems that
follow a similar pattern hinge on where the dryslot is and how
progressive the system becomes. Ensembles keep precipitation nearly
limited to east of highway 283 at 40-60%. With lots of variability,
not much can be gleaned other than general trends (which has become
slightly more favorable). However, declarations on severe potential
is almost zero other than the best chances being the eastern edge of
the CWA if at all. After the system Tuesday/Wednesday, the forecast
is expected to return to a quiet and dry pattern for the rest of the
forecast period and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A strong north wind will be present at all sites for the majority of
the period. By around 23Z, winds will shift to a light and variable regime.
The only potential impact to lower flight conditions is lowered
ceilings at HYS. However, ensembles keep these chances below 25% so
they are excluded from the TAFs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ