Emporia, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS63 KTOP 191915
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
215 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of hot weather is expected into next
  weekend and beyond.

- Showers and storms could move into parts of northern KS
  overnight tonight and Sunday night.

- There is low confidence in severe storms, but a marginal risk
  for severe wind gusts remains.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

19Z water vapor imagery showed upper ridging over the southeast
nosing into the southern plains while the westerlies remained
across the northern plains. Surface obs showed an area of
relative low pressure over the CO high plains with an inverted
trough extending through southeast NEB and into southern IA.

The prolong period of heat remains the main concern with the
forecast and there is not much from the 12Z models showing a cooler
solution. So will continue without any changes to the current
headlines. The Extreme Heat Warnings is out because of the duration
of the heat more so than the magnitude of the heat, with heat
indices forecast to be around 105 each afternoon. The upper ridge is
progged to amplify beginning Monday with some of the hotter temps
expected through midweek. However the 12Z ECMWF is suggesting some
mid level energy may knock down the upper ridge with chances for
precip Thursday and Friday. This is why an extension has not been
made to the headlines. Unfortunately the ensemble consensus and
operational solutions strengthen the upper ridge over KS by next
weekend. The 00Z ensembles are even showing an outside chance (less
than 5%) that highs could reach between 110 and 115. So it doesn`t
look like the heat is going anywhere soon.

In the short term, there is a chance (20-40%) for showers and storms
to move from NEB into northern KS. Shortwave energy within the
westerlies is forecast to spark convection over western NEB this
evening. But CAMs show an overall weakening trend as storms move
towards northeast KS during the early morning hours. There remains a
marginal risk for some wind gusts, but there is not much confidence
in severe weather with increasing inhibition overnight likely to
make storms ever more elevated. There looks to be another
opportunity for nocturnal convection to move into parts of northeast
KS from the north Sunday night in a similar setup to tonight. Warm
700MB temps between 12-14C are expected to inhibit daytime
development over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to be the prevailing condition.
Weak disturbances are forecast to spark convection across NEB
tonight. Some of the CAMs show some potential for storms to move
south, but confidence in them reaching the terminals is to low
to include in the forecast for now. A 40-50KT low level jet is
progged to develop overnight. Forecast soundings keep some
mixing in the boundary layer with surface winds holding around
8-10KT in the river valley. So will not include LLWS with this
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ024.

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters