Dodge City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

068
FXUS63 KDDC 121900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Saturday.

- Small thunderstorm chances return Sunday and Monday.

- A warming trend will continue this week, with the hottest
  temperatures Friday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

The strong 594 dm midlevel ridge was centered over Nevada at
midday. A subsident regime is beginning to take control of
SW KS weather, as heights are rising on the ridge`s eastern
periphery over the plains. Light northeast winds prevailed,
and mesoanalysis depicted an instability axis across southeast
zones (Barber county and vicinity) with CAPE over 2000 J/kg.
Isolated/weak convection is possible near and especially east
Medicine Lodge at peak heating this afternoon. The remainder of
SW KS will remain dry, and the warming trend will continue, with
most locations warming through the 80s this afternoon.

The simple quiet forecast remains unchanged through this week.
The midlevel ridge centered near Las Vegas Tuesday, will
gradually drift eastward, near the Four Corners Wednesday, the
central and southern plains Thursday, to over the Ozarks Friday.
South winds will gradually increase Wednesday through Friday as
lee troughing gradually reestablishes east of the Rockies. A
pronounced heating trend will continue as the atmosphere
gradually warms and the vegetation/soils dry out. NBM/MEX
guidance forecasts high temperatures within a few degrees of 100
at most locations by Friday afternoon. High confidence that SW
KS will remain dry in this subsident pattern through Friday.

Slight chance pops return Sunday and Monday, as models to
various degrees suggest the monsoonal moisture plume will try to
edge eastward onto the plains, on the western periphery of the
ridge. This opportunity for rainfall appears limited, and of
short duration, as ECMWF/EPS ensemble members agree the upper
high will retrograde back westward again early next week,
keeping the hot and dry regime going. After a wet summer, a
long stretch of dry weather will prevail for quite some time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF cycle,
with VFR/SKC and light winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner