Dodge City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS63 KDDC 201600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat advisory in effect for southeast zones Sunday afternoon,
  with heat index values of 105 to 109 degrees.

- Isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, with a
  marginal risk of strong outflow winds.

- Dry weather will prevail through Tuesday with continued very
  hot afternoons.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances expected to improve some
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Temperatures of 100-103 and dewpoints well into the 60s will
combine to produce heat index values of 105-109 for several
hours Sunday afternoon, for counties east and south of Dodge
City. Heat advisory criteria is 105, with a forecast heat index
of 103 at peak heating at Dodge City this afternoon. Heat
advisory has been issued for counties east and south of Dodge
City.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

An expansive upper-level ridge of high pressure, currently
centered over the Southern Plains, will be the dominant weather
feature affecting western Kansas today through the start of the
work week. This synoptic setup will promote subsidence and
compressional heating, leading to a period of hot and dry
conditions. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to climb
into the upper 90s to low 100s across the entire area. With
southerly winds transporting modest low-level moisture, heat
indices will likely reach the 90s with low 100s east of a line
from WaKeeney to Liberal. Currently the HREF has the probability
of exceeding 105 degrees heat index is over 50 percent across
Clark, Comanche, and barber counties this afternoon. If this
comes to fruition, a heat advisory may be needed for these
counties. Overnight low temperatures will offer little relief,
ranging from the mid 60s across far western Kansas to mid 70s
across central Kansas. Precipitation chances remain near zero
through the next two days, however, an isolated storm can not be
ruled out overnight, mainly across west central Kansas and
along the I-70 corridor.

Confidence in the forecast begins to decrease mid-week as the
upper-level ridge starts to weaken and shift eastward.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough digs into the Northern Rockies
Monday, then into the Northern Plains Wednesday into Thursday.
This will allow for a subtle increase in moisture advection from
the south and the potential for weak disturbances to ripple
through the flow. As a result, isolated, diurnally-driven
thunderstorms may begin to enter the forecast for western Kansas
as early as Wednesday, with slightly better chances on
Thursday. Uncertainty for this period centers on the exact
timing of the ridge`s degradation and the strength of the cap.
Some ensemble models show the cap remaining strong enough to
limit storm coverage, while others suggest enough erosion to
support scattered afternoon convection. Any storms that do form
in this very hot and unstable airmass could produce strong,
gusty outflow winds. These storms will then weaken during the
overnight period. Highs during this timeframe are expected to be
in the 90s with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

The highest forecast uncertainty resides in the Friday into the
weekend. Long range ensemble models diverge significantly on
the evolution of an upper-level trough forecasted over the
western United States. A few models are more progressive,
digging the trough into the Rockies and pushing a weak cold
front into the plains on Friday. This solution would bring a
better chance for scattered thunderstorms and a slight
moderation in temperatures. In contrast, the other ensemble
models are slower and depicts a weaker system, holding off the
best chances for precipitation until later resulting in less
temperature relief. Given this model disagreement, there is low
confidence in the timing and coverage of rainfall and the extent
of the cooldown for the end of the forecast period. Highs
during this timeframe are expected to continue to be in the 90s
with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Excellent flying weather is expected to prevail through this TAF
period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible during the 21z Sun - 03z Mon time frame, but confidence
regarding any aviation/terminal impacts is very low. As such,
kept all TAFs dry with no convection mentioned.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-088>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner