Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS63 KICT 150907
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
407 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions expected through the end of the week

- An active weather pattern is likely to emerge this weekend,
  bringing multiple rain and severe storm chances to the area

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

As of 4 AM Thursday morning, an initial shortwave trough, currently
digging across central NE, continues to progress northeastward. An
associated surface trough has pushed through the I-135 corridor with
gusty west winds up to 55 mph observed. Quite the temperature
gradient exists along the trough with upper 70s ahead and 50s
behind. This frontal passage will keep temperatures much cooler than
yesterday with highs in the low 80s.

Beyond today, ensemble probabilities continue to provide a signal
for measurable rainfall Saturday night through Tuesday. To begin
with Saturday night into Sunday morning, a strong WAA pattern will
emerge with the nose a 30-40 kt LLJ developing from central KS into
south-central and southeast KS. Elevated instability up to 2000 J
/kg with modest acceleration of the wind profile from 1-6 km. This
will ultimately support a large hail threat late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Broad WAA is likely to continue throughout the day
Sunday with shower and storm chances continuing into the afternoon.
Our eyes will focus to a sharpening dryline across portions of
central/western KS. The latest suite of model guidance remains mixed
with the prospects of convective initiation Sunday
afternoon/evening. Regardless, the conditional environment will be
favorable for severe weather and this needs to be monitored in the
coming days. Like prior forecasts have expressed, the greatest
potential for widespread severe weather is expected to arrive Monday
afternoon and evening. A sharp dryline across portions of west-
central may be the focal point for convective initiation Monday
afternoon/evening. Another day of shower and thunderstorm activity
is possible into Tuesday with a slower progression of the main
midlevel trough. Continue to check back for forecast updates
throughout the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A Pacific cold front will bring gusty winds to the region late
tonight before subsiding during the predawn hours. Some gusts to
around 50 mph may be possible through 1 AM in parts of central
Kansas. Blowing dirt may reduce visibilities to around 4-5 miles
briefly at KRSL and KGBD. Meanwhile in southeast KS we could see
some LLWS at the KCNU site as the low level jet ramps up
tonight. Breezy westerly winds and VFR will prevail during the
day on Thursday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...MWM