Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

271
FXUS63 KICT 120028
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
728 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through
  mid this evening. A marginally severe thunderstorm can`t be
  ruled out.

- Numerous/widespread showers and thunderstorms later tonight
  through early afternoon Sunday. Severe weather not expected.

- An isolated severe thunderstorm possible both Sunday and
  Monday late afternoon-evening.

- Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe
  weather late Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances possible next Friday-
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A subtle mid-level wave approaching from
the west amidst a moist, unstable, and uncapped airmass should
support isolated to widely scattered hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms areawide. Poor mid-level lapse rates and
marginal deep layer shear should preclude widespread severe weather,
although the marginal buoyancy/shear combination in conjunction with
the approaching mid-level wave may support a marginally severe
thunderstorm through 10 PM, especially west of the KS Turnpike.
Additionally, anomalously high precipitable waters will support
pockets of heavy rainfall.

LATER TONIGHT--SUNDAY MORNING...Another subtle wave approaching from
Mexico will be the focus for widespread/numerous showers and
thunderstorms well after midnight through midday Sunday, with the
highest chances generally along and southeast of the Kansas
Turnpike. Once again, the primary threat will be pockets of heavy
rainfall and perhaps some localized minor flooding given the deep
fetch of anomalous precipitable waters.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...In wake of the departing upper
wave, thinking large-scale subsidence will overspread the forecast
area by late Sunday, which should tend to suppress additional
thunderstorm development. However, some modest dryline convergence
may support an isolated thunderstorm or two after 5-6 PM generally
along/west of I-135. Given the increasingly favorable combination of
vertical shear and buoyancy, severe weather will be possible with
any storm that can manage to develop.

MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING...Similar to Sunday, Monday`s severe
weather threat is conditional, as storm development will likely
struggle given only modest dryline convergence and little to no
upper forcing. However, if a storm or two is able to develop, a very
favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of shear
oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support supercells
capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time would be mainly
west of the Flint Hills after 5 PM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...This period appears to have the
greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave
approaching from the west interacts with a very moist/unstable warm
sector along/east of a sharpening dryline. While there remains some
forecast uncertainty given this is still 3-4 days out (namely robust
dryline convergence for storm initiation may be lacking), the degree
of buoyancy and shear would support the greatest severe weather
threat, with supercells capable of all severe hazards. Regarding
timing, the latest ECMWF keeps the thunderstorm threat through
Wednesday evening given a slower shortwave motion. Stay tuned as we
refine forecast details in the coming days.

NEXT FRIDAY--SATURDAY...Deterministic and ensemble consensus
supports a reloading moist/unstable warm sector by late week, as
another western CONUS upper trough deepens. This could support
another round of thunderstorms (possibly severe?) as we head into
Friday--Saturday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out, stay
tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee
troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above
average temperatures look to likely persist through much of next
week. The warmest days look to be Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday,
when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for
most across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model
consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with
potential below average temperatures possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
for a few hours this evening, before dissipating and/or moving
off to the east-northeast, mainly in the vicinity of ICT, HUT,
and SLN. Strongest activity will be capable of small hail, gusty
winds, heavy rain.

Later tonight, expecting additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms to increase from the southwest, mainly for CNU,
ICT, and possibly HUT as well. Severe weather is not expected
with this activity.

IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually fill in from the
south overnight, as moisture advection continues amidst diurnal
cooling. These low ceilings should persist through Sunday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MONDAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity west of a dryline amidst
continued breezy/gusty south to southwest winds may support VERY
HIGH grassland fire danger generally west of Interstate 135.
Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime humidity
values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas
generally east of I-135 the next 7 days.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK