Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS63 KICT 141817
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
117 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler below average temperatures with dry conditions through
  Monday.

- Next chance for showers/storms looks to arrive Tuesday afternoon
  and night.

- Hot conditions will develop on Wednesday along with the
  potential for severe storms for south central and southeast
  Kansas during the evening/night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A stable post-frontal regime has overspread the area today with
pleasant and tranquil weather conditions. A ridge of high pressure
at the surface will dominate the weather tonight before gradually
shifting eastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley area on Monday
afternoon. This will allow southerly flow to return to the Central
Plains from west to east as we move through the day on Monday.
Abundant insolation and light southerly winds will allow temperatures
to recover with highs in the lower 80s for most areas on Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday...a shortwave trough moving over the Upper
Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes will drive a cold front
south across the Central Plains late Monday night into Tuesday. It
will be hard to rule out some elevated showers and storms ahead of
the boundary Monday night into early Tue with some modest mid-lvl
waa progged ahead of the approaching cold front. We continue to see
some differences with timing and southward extent of the cold front
on Tuesday. If it hangs up across Kansas supported by the GFS/ECMWF
it could provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms but some of
the guidance has the front moving into the Southern Plains on
Tuesday afternoon. A nocturnal LLJ may focus elevated showers and
storms late Tuesday night into early Wed, but better chances may
remain north and east of our area over parts of northeast KS. More
seasonable temperatures are expected to return on Tue with highs in
the mid and upper 80s for most areas.

Wed...Another shortwave trough is progged to sweep through the mean
larger-scale trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley area on Wed
driving another frontal boundary southward into the Central Plains
in continued WNW mid/upper flow. There is decent agreement that the
frontal zone will bisect our forecast area on Wed afternoon
providing a focus for deep moist convection. What stands out with
this system is the STRONG mid-level flow progged to arrive late Wed
afternoon with 80+ knots progged to nose into the Central Plains at
H5. The ECMWF indicates a 3-4 sigma anomaly at H5 for wind speed
which is generally considered very unusual to extreme. It`s
relatively rare and in the upper tail of climatology for this time
of year. Some downslope effects could help boost temperatures,
especially in central KS as a dryline sharpens but with 70+
dewpoints lingering across the Flint Hills into southeast Kansas the
NBM MaxT is likely overdone for southeast KS and CONSRAW was blended
to trend in that direction for Wed afternoon. As the cap weakens,
storms are expected to unzip along the frontal zone by late
aftn/early evening but they are expected to struggle with westward
extent as we move into central KS as warm H7 air is expected to
provide a stout cap. Severe storms appear likely Wed evening,
especially for areas east of I-135.

A stable post-frontal regime will arrive late Wed night into Thu
while lingering into Fri with rising heights/increasing thickness
late in the week allowing temperatures to quickly moderate on Friday
while dry conditions prevail through the period.

Mid/Upper ridging on Saturday may break down on Sunday as a
shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies bringing
increasing chances for showers and storms late Sat into Sun.
Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. North/northeast winds currently observed across the
area will weaken this afternoon and become light and variable
overnight before turning to the south by Monday morning.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK