Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

829
FXUS63 KICT 180828
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
228 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much colder air will remain in place through Tuesday. The
  lowest wind chills expected Tuesday morning.

- Increasing chances for snow on Monday.

- Moderating temperatures by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Low level cold air advection is progged to persist today through
Sunday with another reinforcing shot of cold air on Monday into
early Tuesday. Light snow is expected to remain west of the area
today but a few snow flurries may drift into parts of central and
southern Kansas this afternoon and early evening. No accumulation is
expected with any of the snow flurry activity. High temperatures
today may remain steady or fall in some areas with strong H85 cold
air advection progged through the day. With continued low level cold
air advection over the central CONUS tonight we expect low
temperatures to fall into the single digits. Even with light winds
speeds at 10 mph or less, wind chill values will fall into the zero
to 9 below range.

Light north to northeast winds will prevail over the area on Sunday
as the sfc ridge moves into eastern Kansas. We expect some breaks in
the clouds but below average temperatures will prevail with highs
struggling to climb out of the teens and low 20s.

Mon...Probabilities for snow are increasing across much of the area
on Monday. A period of accumulating snow is anticipated as a
frontogenetical band of snow impacts much of the region. Good lift
through the dendritic snow growth zone is progged with high SLRs and
a period of low static stability leading to a period of efficient
snowfall production during the day on Monday.

Tue-Fri...The sfc ridge axis is progged to move southeast of the
area on Tue allowing breezy southerly winds to return. This will
allow temperatures to begin to moderate across the area. Another
clipper system is progged to move over the Northern Plains on
Wednesday keeping seasonably cool temperatures in place across the
Central Plains into Thursday. A more substantial warmup may arrive
toward the end of the week with rising heights/increasing thickness
supporting rising temperatures across the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

MVFR cigs look to spread southward into central Kansas
overnight and could linger in the afternoon hours. Meanwhile
north winds will remain gusty through the overnight and Saturday
afternoon hours. Low level clouds around MVFR cigs could
persist across central and south central Kansas on Saturday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ