Derby, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

876
FXUS63 KICT 242006
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty hit-or-miss showers/storms this afternoon-evening,
  mainly northwest of KS Turnpike. Primary risks are locally
  intense rainfall rates and flooding, and isolated strong
  downburst winds.

- Off-and-on shower/storm chances Thursday through early next
  week. Primary risks are locally intense rainfall rates and
  flooding, and isolated strong downburst winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING

Similar to yesterday, spotty hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms
will impact the region this afternoon and evening, mainly
northwest of the KS Turnpike, although a few isolated storms
cannot be ruled out as far east as the Flint Hills. The culprits
are subtle mid/upper perturbations within a long fetch of deep
subtropical moisture stretching from Mid-America south-southwest
into the western Mexican coast, amidst a moist/unstable/uncapped
airmass across the region. Little to no deep layer shear should
preclude a large hail threat, although decent downdraft CAPE
values could support a threat for isolated wet microbursts.
Thinking the primary threat will be locally intense rainfall
rates and flooding concerns given the tropical airmass. The
shower/storm threat should gradually shift north of the forecast
area as the evening progresses, as the rich precipitable water
axis shifts north.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT

The airmass will remain moist/unstable/uncapped by Wednesday
afternoon, so cannot completely rule out a few spotty
showers/storms. However, coverage should be quite isolated with
the precipitable water axis north of the forecast area. For
Wednesday night, locations mainly northwest of a Great Bend to
Lincoln line could see a few showers/thunderstorms, as activity
rolls east off the High Plains. Severe weather is not expected.

THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK

This period will feature off-and-on shower/storm chances, as
the upper ridge breaks down some, allowing for subtle/weak mid-
level perturbations to traverse slowly east over the region,
amidst a moist/unstable airmass and increasing precipitable
waters. Chances will likely be highest each day from about mid-
afternoon through the evening when instability is highest.
Sunday-Monday could feature the greatest chances/coverage, as
model consensus progresses a weak cold front slowly south into
the region. Throughout this time period, storm organization/mode
will likely be quite messy/pulsey given weak flow aloft, so the
hail threat will likely be negligible. However, strong
downburst winds could accompany the strongest activity, along
with locally intense rainfall rates and flooding concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

While VFR conditions are generally favored across much of the
area, a few isolated showers and storms could impact sites along
and west of the Kansas Turnpike this afternoon. The best chances
for a few diurnally driven showers and storms will be between
19Z and 01Z. Afterwards, activity is expected to wane, and VFR
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.
Surface winds will continue to remain out of the south at around
10 to 15 knots across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC