Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

675
FXUS63 KICT 062016
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and storms tonight through early
  Saturday, especially over southern Kansas.

- Additional chance for rain Sunday evening with the better
  chances in southeast Kansas

- Quiet and dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday
  with rain chances increasing on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Currently, there is a longwave trough extending from the Northern
Plains to off the coast of California with multiple embedded
shortwave troughs, resulting in westerly flow aloft in our area.

Tonight, a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest, providing
another opportunity for showers and storms overnight into Saturday
morning. As the warm front lifts north near the KS/OK border,
moisture and instability increase. Dewpoints are expected to climb
into the upper 60s with values of MUCAPE generally between 1000-1500
J/kg. With ample deep layer shear and instability, severe storms are
possible. The main impacts would be 60 mph winds, nickel sized hail,
and heavy rainfall. The best storm chances are likely in south-
central to southern KS with the heaviest rainfall expected in
Kingman, Harper and Sumner counties.

Continuing into the weekend, flow aloft will start to shift more
westerly to northwesterly Saturday afternoon and continue into
Sunday. Temperatures will continue to rise with highs climbing into
the mid to upper 80s on Sunday, though it wont last as a cold front
is expected to move through Sunday night. With this cold front, an
additional chance for rainfall is possible Sunday evening into
Monday morning. Model guidance has decent instability and deep layer
shear, making strong to severe storms possible with the better
chances in southeast Kansas. Uncertainty is high at this time due to
model discrepancy, stay tuned for forecast updates.

By Monday night, ridging builds into the Great Plains with its
associated surface high keeping conditions quiet and dry through
Wednesday. After Wednesday, flow aloft becomes more southerly to
southwesterly along with southerly flow returning at the surface.
With moisture transport increasing going into Thursday, showers and
storms are possible Thursday though this forecast will be refined as
it gets closer. Temperatures throughout the week are expected to be
near normal with most highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Stubborn MVFR stratus will scatter across central KS by 20Z with
VFR conditions expected areawide into the evening hours. A few
showers/storms are possible across south-central and eastern KS
this afternoon. Due to the isolated nature expected, have opted
for PROB30 groups at ICT/HUT/CNU. More-widespread thunderstorm
development is expected across the high Plains this afternoon
with a complex of thunderstorms moving across portions of
central/south-central/southeast KS late tonight. Introduced
TEMPO groups for the most likely timeframe for convection
overnight. After morning convection ends, lingering MVFR CIGS
are probable at most sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ082-091>093-
098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC/VJP
AVIATION...BRF