Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

326
FXUS63 KICT 070557
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1157 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is likely for much of the area this afternoon
  into tonight as a strong cold front surges eastward.

- Dry and cool for Saturday followed warmer temperatures and continued
  dry weather Sunday and Monday

- Decent signal for next round of showers/storms to impact the
  area on Tuesday/Tuesday night with strong to severe storms possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Currently, the mid/upper level trough is situated over the Rockies
with the surface low across the western Central Plains. The
associated cold frontal boundary extends across western Kansas into
the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms over southeast Kansas
are finally diminishing. The thick stratus deck that has persisted
over the area is beginning to clear out from west to east as the dry
line and frontal boundary usher in a drier air mass. Ahead of the
frontal boundary in areas where temperatures have reached into
the 70s and some sun has started to break through the clouds,
we`re seeing CAPE values on the order of 2000+ J/kg in south-
central and central Kansas. We`re already seeing towering cu
develop along the frontal boundary in central Kansas. As this
feature progresses eastward, we will see storm development unzip
along the boundary over the next couple hours. The LLJ will
intensify through the early evening hours over eastern Kansas
and as the line of storms moves into this region, we`ll see an
increase in SRH generally along and east of the Turnpike. It is
this area that is highlighted with an Enhanced risk for severe
weather by the SPC with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being
the main hazards. There is also a narrow corridor from south-
central into central Kansas where the dry line is managing to
remain ahead of the frontal boundary where we could see a few
discrete cells develop briefly in the favorable environment. The
cold front does look to overtake the dry line by around 00Z
leading to this becoming a primarily linear storm mode. The
frontal boundary and line of storms will quickly move eastward
across the CWA, exiting the area between 06-09Z.

For the weekend into early next week, zonal flow will take over and
a more stable pattern is expected. Temperatures on Saturday will
cool off behind the front to near normal, with temperatures
rebounding by early next week into the middle to upper 70s. By
Tuesday, strong moisture advection from the Gulf will return with
continued well above normal temperatures. A couple of frontal
boundaries look to dive across the region on Tuesday into Wednesday,
interacting with this warm, moist environment, leading to a
prolonged time frame for shower and thunderstorm development. Given
the time of year and the state of the environment, another chance
for severe weather looks possible with this activity. There`s still
plenty of time to iron out the details of this next event. It does
look like behind this activity, temperatures will take a tumble once
again to near normal for Wednesday. Weak ridging will return for the
end of the week leading to clearing skies and warming temperatures
once again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The strong cold front is currently moving through southeast
Kansas, with gusty northwest winds and low MVFR to patchy high
IFR ceilings in its wake. Thinking the thunderstorm threat will
exit southeast Kansas to the east by around 08z, with the
strongest activity capable of 60 mph winds, quarter size hail,
and locally heavy rain.

Low clouds will gradually exit to the east later tonight through
Saturday morning, with stout northwest winds also subsiding as
we head through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

We could see a few areas of marginally very high fire danger on
Sunday and Monday afternoons but much of the region should remain
below those levels.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...AMD