Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

068
FXUS63 KICT 191914
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
214 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and storms possible this evening and tonight
  mainly in central KS.

- Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Currently, there is surface troughing extending from central NE down
into western KS and eastern CO. A cold front is stretching across
southern Nebraska into central Iowa. In our area, southerly flow
persists with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s and heat indices
around 105. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Wednesday.
This evening, the cold front will push south into northern KS. Low-
level upslope flow in eastern CO will help initiate storms into this
evening with the expectation of eastward propagation. Given decent
instability and an axis of convergence along the front, it is
possible for storms to reach central KS tonight into Sunday morning.
DCAPE values are generally around 1500 J/kg making damaging winds
the biggest impact of any storm. Inhibition will increase throughout
the evening into the night, limiting the potential for further
development. Low temperatures will be around the mid 70s.

On Sunday, the mid-level ridge will slightly amplify as it shifts
towards the Mississippi Valley, allowing thickness to increase. High
temperatures on Sunday will be similar to Saturday with highs in the
upper 90s to the lower 100s. On Sunday night, low precipitation
chances will be possible in central KS as an embedded weak ripple is
expected to ride the upper/mid-level ridge combined with an
increasing LLJ.

Monday-Saturday... Starting early next week, model consensus
supports the upper-level ridge amplifying more, allowing heights to
continue rising. With southerly flow persisting, hot and humid
conditions are expected daily. High temperatures will stay in the
upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight lows are expected to remain warm
with most areas in the mid to upper 70s. Upper-level flow will steer
some shortwave troughs into the Central High Plains throughout this
period. With an increasing LLJ each night, low precipitation
chances will be possible each night into the early morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end
of the period. Southerly winds are forecast throughout the area
today, with gusts around 20 kts possible through sundown. LLWS is
expected areawide tonight beginning around/after 04Z and lasting
until 13Z at most sites, with predominantly-south winds anticipated
to pick back up toward the end of the period.

Showers and storms remain possible tonight into the morning hours on
Sunday, especially at central KS sites. At this time, confidence
remains low in direct site impacts and is higher in storm coverage
remaining north of RSL and SLN. However, variable winds arising from
storm outflow will be possible depending on the southward extent of
coverage. As such, VRB winds have been introduced at RSL and GBD
after 05Z to account for this possibility.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JWK