Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

899
FXUS63 KICT 262344
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances continue this evening, with strong storms and
  heavy rain possible.

- Hit-or-miss storm chances for Friday and Saturday, especially
  across eastern KS.

- Storm chances ramp back up for Sunday afternoon and especially
  Sunday night as a front moves into the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A low pressure system currently located over central Nebraska is
dragging a weak boundary southward across central Kansas. This
boundary will be the focal point of our convection this
afternoon and evening as it moves eastward throughout the day
and into the evening hours. While shear will remain weak across
the forecast area, the instability will reach between 2500-3000
J/kg in places. This, combined with the forcing from the
boundary, should be enough to produce a few thunderstorms
across eastern Kansas. The thermodynamic profile supports a few
strong wind gusts, however the lack of shear should limit the
hail threat. The slower moving nature of these storms, along
with 2 inch PWATs, would also support locally heavy rain leading
to some localized flooding concerns.

Then for Friday into this weekend, moisture and instability will
remain in place across the eastern half of Kansas though we will
lack in any real forcing across the area. Some weak mid-level
impulses will move across the region allowing minor convection to
develop in the weakly capped environment. Widespread severe weather
and significant rainfall is not anticipated with this activity. Then
on Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave will move into the northern
portion of the U.S. sending an associated weak frontal boundary
across the Central Plains. This will lead to slightly better rain
chances on Sunday night into Monday morning.

Beyond Monday, high pressure will build in behind the front leading
to generally lower rain chances. For the middle part of the week, we
could see isolated rain/storm chances as low level moisture remains
abundant and we`ll maintain some marginal instability. In the wake
of the frontal boundary, we will also see temperatures dip a few
degrees below normal for this time of year with afternoon highs
reaching into the middle to upper 80s and overnight lows falling
into the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
slowly shift to the south and east this evening. A thunderstorm
is currently in the vicinity of ICT however this storm will
slowly move east and clear the terminal by 01Z. CNU is the only
other terminal that has the potential for thunderstorm impacts
this evening but confidence remains low at this time. Otherwise,
winds will become light and variable overnight. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow, primarily over
southeast Kansas and CNU with a return of breezy southerly
winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...WI