Atchison, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

019
FXUS63 KEAX 142323
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery northwest winds will relax tonight with a return of
  seasonably chilly temperatures expected through Thursday
  night.

- An Arctic cold front will pass through the region Friday,
  bringing breezy northwest winds. There is a 50-80% chance of
  wind gusts over 30 mph Friday afternoon. There is a low chance
  (10-20%) of seeing flurries or a brief snow shower across northern
  Missouri, but no accumulation is expected.

- A brief bitter blast of very chilly air will impact the area
  on Saturday. There is a 60-100% of high temperatures below 30
  degrees and a 40-80% chance of subzero wind chill values
  Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will slowly moderate back towards normal January
  values beginning Sunday into the first half of next week, with
  continued dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Following the passage of a cold front early this morning,
blustery NW winds will persist through this afternoon, with
gusts of 30-35 mph expected. Winds will relax this evening as
surface high pressure descends southward from the Upper Midwest
and briefly becomes centered over the region. The surface high
will shift east of the region Thursday, allowing slightly
warmer southerly return flow to commence. Temperatures will be
near typical January values on Thursday into Friday.

On Friday, a robust Arctic cold front will begin to pass through
the region. While moisture near the ground will be lacking,
there may be enough forcing and mid-level moisture present to
squeeze flurries or isolated light snow showers Friday
afternoon, especially across northern MO. The odds of this
occurring are still quite low (around 10-20%) but will be need
to watched over the next 24-36 hours. At this time, no snow
accumulation or travel impacts are expected. However, if low-
level moisture increases, the potential for bursts of heavier
snow showers will as well. Gradient winds will be especially
breezy as well from the northwest. Latest NBM ensemble guidance
shows a 50-80% of wind gusts over 30 mph on Friday, with the
greatest values in northeast KS and northwest MO.

Following the passage of the Arctic cold front, a progged
1038mb surface high will accompany a deep H5 troughing into the
Central Plains. Temperatures at 850 mb will fall to around the
5th to 10th percentiles. This will yield temperatures well-
below freezing and about 10-15 degrees below normal. NBM
ensemble guidance shows at 60-100% of high temperatures below 30
degrees and a 50-80% chance of low temperatures Sunday morning
below 10 degrees from north to south, respectively. Combined
with steady NW winds, there will also be a 40-80% chance of
subzero wind chill values on Sunday morning.

The H5 troughing will begin to flatten to more of a zonal NW
flow pattern from Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will
slowly begin to moderate back towards normal January values. The
broadly anti-cyclonic synoptic regime will keep conditions dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Winds will diminish after sunset and eventually become light and
variable overnight at around 5 knots or less. Winds then turn
southerly for Thursday with some gusts to 15 to 20 knots for the
afternoon hours. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with
mainly clear skies tonight before clouds increase Thursday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Snyder
AVIATION...Howell