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Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Arkansas City KS
National Weather Service Forecast for: Arkansas City KS
Issued by: National Weather Service Wichita KS
Updated: 3:43 am CDT Apr 16, 2025
 
Today

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph.
Mostly Sunny
and Breezy

Tonight

Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers between 1am and 4am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance
T-storms

Thursday

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 92. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Sunny and
Breezy

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Mostly Clear
and Breezy
then Partly
Cloudy
Friday

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Partly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
Showers
Friday
Night
Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Chance
T-storms then
Showers
Likely
Saturday

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Chance
T-storms then
Chance
Showers
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers
Likely

Sunday

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers.  Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers
Likely

Hi 80 °F Lo 62 °F Hi 92 °F Lo 63 °F Hi 77 °F Lo 48 °F Hi 61 °F Lo 43 °F Hi 62 °F

 

Today
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph.
Tonight
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers between 1am and 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 92. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
Thursday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Breezy, with a south wind 17 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.
Friday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Friday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
 
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 73.
Monday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Tuesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Arkansas City KS.

Weather Forecast Discussion
701
FXUS63 KICT 160817
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few storms possible tonight with dime to quarter size hail
  possible with stronger storms.

- Record highs expected on Thursday, with most locations seeing
  highs in the 90s.

- Very high to extreme fire danger Thursday afternoon.

- Heavy rain possible across southeast KS for Friday night
  through Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Upper trough is currently departing the Northeast CONUS with
some weak upper ridging moving out of the Rockies and into the
High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper low is spinning just off of the
Central CA coast. At the surface, high is located down across
the Arklatex region with lee troughing strengthening across
eastern CO/into eastern WY.

Surface high will continue to shift east today as low pressure
continues to deepen across western KS/western Nebraska. This
will allow for strong south winds and low level moisture quickly
lifting north. Current thinking is that convection will hold
off until after 00z, when low level jet ramps-up which will
quickly increase 850-700mb moisture transport across the area.
Not looking for any widespread storms due to lack of upper
forcing with just iso-sct activity after dark. Any storms that
develop look to be rooted above 850mb, generally around 800mb,
with around 1,000J/KG CAPE available above this level. Given
plenty of effective shear, this looks to be enough instability
for storms to produce some dime to quarter size hail.

For Thu, models remain consistent in tracking a strong upper
impulse south across the Northern Intermountain and into the
Great Basin by early Thu evening. This will allow low pressure
to continue to strengthen over Western KS and will setup great
downslope conditions and extremely deep mixing, setting the
stage for record max temperatures for Thursday. Confidence
still remains high that most locations along and west of I-135
will see highs in the low 90s. Area records range from 89 at
Chanute to 92 degrees at Wichita.

Deep upper trough will continue to dig into the Desert Southwest
Thu night into Fri as a northern stream impulse slides across
the Northern Plains. This will cause a cold front to sink south
across the Northern and Central Plains and by Fri afternoon,
will stretch from central MO, through far southeast KS and into
western OK. Due to capping issues and lack of upper forcing, not
looking for much in the way to convection during the day Fri
and feel confident the more widespread activity will develop
after 00z when the low level jet impinges on the front. While
widespread severe storms are not expected, there maybe a few
that produce marginally severe hail or downburst winds. The
bigger threat looks to be heavy rain potential Fri night into
Sat over southeast KS with PWs expected to be around 175-200% of
normal.

Compared to the 00z models runs 24 hours ago, latest runs have
sped up the progression of the trough and kept it more of an
open wave. This looks to push the better shower/storm chances
east faster and also decrease precip and severe storm chances
for Sun afternoon, with the better severe chances east of our
forecast area. It is of note that the ECMWF is slightly slower
and less positively tilted compared to the GFS which does lead
to more widespread showers and storms Sat night. Whichever model
verifies, precip will be out of the forecast area by early Sun
evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Main aviation concern will be some gusty south winds starting
late this morning.

Surface high currently situated over the Arklatex region will
continue shifting east today as lee troughing strengthens over
eastern CO. This will bring gusty south winds to most of the
area generally after 15z today with sustained speeds 20-25 mph
with some gusts to 35 mph. Outside of a few high clouds, clear
skies are expected through most of this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Thursday is shaping-up to be a dangerous fire weather day
across most of the area.

Winds are expected to veer around to the southwest on Thu which
will bring-in much drier air by the afternoon hours. At the same
time deep mixing will result in gusty winds. We are currently
looking for sustained wind speeds Thu afternoon in the 20-30 mph
range with gusts to 40-45 mph possible. The higher wind speeds
will be along and south of Highway 50. Afternoon RH values are
forecast to range from around 10-15% west of I-135 to around
20-25% over the Flint Hills. So we are currently expecting the
grassland fire danger to be in the extreme category west of
I-135 and very high over the remainder of the area. Hopefully
recent green-up will keep any fires from getting too out of
control Thursday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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