Arkansas City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

890
FXUS63 KICT 201133
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms continue this morning across portions
  of central KS; additional storms possible along I-70 this
  afternoon/evening

- A few storms possible tonight across central and south-central KS

- Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect today through
  Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

As of 330 AM Sunday morning, zonal midlevel flow continues with the
ridge axis across the southern MS valley. The most robust convection
is ongoing on the nose a 30-35 kt LLJ across southern IA. Broad
low/mid level WAA continues to produce weak showers/storms across
portions of central KS. As the LLJ veers through sunrise, anticipate
this activity to dissipate. The remnant surface trough axis, which
has been reinforced by convective outflow extends from northeast KS
through central KS and into west-central KS. A weak midlevel
perturbation, which is currently within the central Rockies, is
forecast to eject into WY/NE later today. This should result in
isolated development along a dryline across portions of
CO/WY/NE. While the strongest forcing for ascent is likely to
remain north of the forecast area, sufficient convergence along
the aforementioned surface trough may result in isolated
thunderstorm development by late afternoon in the vicinity of
I-70. A deeply mixed boundary layer, characterized by dew
depressions near 40 degrees, will result in inverted-V profiles.
As such, any storm will be capable of wind gusts near 60 mph.
This zone of convective potential should dissipate with sunset.
In regards to extreme heat, heat indices up to 110 degrees are
expected area-wide this afternoon. Refer to the Extreme Heat
Warning for additional details. Additional WAA driven
showers/storms may emerge into the overnight hours across
central and south-central KS. Severe weather is not expected
with this activity.

For Monday and beyond, the midlevel ridge will amplify across the
central/southern MS valley. A stagnant airmass is expected with
daytime highs in the upper 90s/near 100 degrees. Otherwise, the
nocturnal LLJ is expected across central/south-central KS each night
and could result in isolated storm development, especially towards
sunrise each morning. A weak cold front will approach the area by
late week and may provide some relief from the hot temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A weak surface
trough in the vicinity of RSL and GBD will keep winds mostly
light and variable throughout the period. Elsewhere, southerly
winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt. Finally,
a PROB30 group was added at SLN and RSL this afternoon for the
potential for isolated storm development. This potential could
expand to GBD, HUT, and ICT but confidence remains too low for
those sites for now.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF