Waukee, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

748
FXUS63 KDMX 112032
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
332 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Quiet tonight with mostly clear skies and light winds

-Increasing winds Saturday with warmer temperatures settling
overhead through the weekend

-Rain showers with a few strong storms are possible Sunday morning
mainly over northern Iowa; Gusty with cooler conditions by Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Northerly surface flow remains today in the form of generally light
winds across the state. Cloud cover has been quite stubborn to exit
the area today, which largely remained over the eastern two-thirds
of the state per satellite imagery, but have gradually been
decreasing this afternoon as the low pressure that was overhead
yesterday tracks into the northeastern CONUS. Clouds fully exiting
the state later this evening into Saturday morning will result in
temperatures to cool off efficiently, with values dropping into the
mid to upper 30s across the state, coolest east. Mid-level ridging
across the western CONUS will continue to track eastward today and
into the weekend, with surface high pressure overhead currently,
tracking quickly southeastward. Winds are expected to shift
southerly from west to east across Iowa late tonight into Saturday.
Winds as a result will become quite breezy Saturday, with the
highest gusts across the west. Model soundings indicate gusts
increasing by mid to late morning and through the afternoon, though
overall mixing potential looks to remain at least somewhat limited
by fairly widespread cloud cover. The likely areas where some peaks
of sunshine may occur to allow for better mixing would be more
likely across the southwestern parts of the state, with highest
gusts around 40mph. Otherwise, no major changes to current thinking
in overall gusts, generally ranging around 25-35 mph, decreasing
further east. These breezy winds with warm temperatures and minimum
RH values in the 30s will lead to an increased risk for fire starts
and spread, so extra care will be needed to avoid burning. This
southerly flow will allow for a noticeable bump up in temperatures
this weekend into the 60s and 70s, especially Sunday as the thermal
ridge moves into the Central Plains.

Lee-side cyclogenesis will develop a low pressure system Saturday
afternoon, tracking into the Midwest late Saturday through Sunday
morning. A 40-50 knot LLJ per model guidance is expected to set up
into Iowa during this time frame as well, which will increase
forcing for lift along a frontal boundary moving into northern
Iowa/southern Minnesota. Sounding data continues to show the
potential for elevated storm activity as low level warm air near the
surface holds in place. Steep lapse rates and strong shear values
present also indicate the potential for at least small hail with any
storms. SPC included a general thunder risk at this time over
northern area which generally covers the potential concern given the
current thinking. Otherwise, dry conditions return for all into the
afternoon, with highs expected through the 70s and near 80s in some
spots over southern Iowa.

A shift in temperatures is expected once again Monday as low level
flow switches back northwesterly and strong cold air advection
brings cooler air back into the region. This tightened pressure
gradient is expected to set up across the state, especially over
northern Iowa, with the aforementioned low pressure tracking
northeast out of the state and high pressure gradually moving
overhead. Winds at the top of the mixed layer around 40-45 knots
with this cold air advection regime should have little issue mixing
down to the surface, with highest values to the north. Will need to
keep a close eye on this as potential wind headlines may be issued
if trends continue on the higher end of guidance. Elevated fire
weather will be in play again given the stronger winds, paired with
expected minimum RH values in the low to mid 30s over central and
southern Iowa, and even into the upper 20s southwest. The potential
is also in place for wrap around shower activity by late afternoon
to evening Monday, which could come with breezy winds as well given
dry low level air depicted per sounding analysis.

High pressure sinks down through the central CONUS Tuesday, which
will lead to quiet weather and gradually decreasing northwest winds
through the day. Highs are expected in the upper 50s to low 60s. An
isolated chance remains for frost across the northeast as
temperatures fall near to below freezing Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, paired with light winds and clear skies. The flow
pattern again shifts more southerly Wednesday, with warm and breezy
conditions anticipated ahead of the next system moving into the
region. At this time, long term guidance is quite varied on how this
system will play out, as the GFS depicts a more defined low pressure
system developing over Nebraska, with stronger forcing lifting
widespread precipitation across Iowa. On the other side of the coin,
the Euro has a much weaker system and little to no QPF over the
state. Will need to keep monitoring over the next several days as
more guidance captures this particular event.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Low clouds are expected to move out over the next few hours,
which will in turn improve ceilings with VFR conditions across
the terminals this afternoon into the evening. Otherwise, winds
will turn more southerly tonight and into Saturday, becoming
breezy by mid morning and beyond the current TAF period. Values
upwards of 25-30 knots are expected, especially west.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Bury