Des Moines, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

392
FXUS63 KDMX 141841
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
141 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather Today into Monday, with mild temperatures
  and dry conditions.

- Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (10 to 20%)
  pass northwest to southeast through Iowa late Monday night
  into Tuesday morning. Severe threat is low.

- Thunderstorms likely (80 to 90%) to return early Wednesday
  morning and again Wednesday afternoon. Severe thunderstorms
  are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

After a busy week in Iowa, we round out the weekend and kick off
this week with pleasant conditions across Iowa today. Temperatures
are cool and comfortable, thanks to dewpoints in the 40s and 50s
across the state. Highs are only forecast to reach the mid 70s
today, with current temperatures in the upper 60s. Scattered to
broken diurnal cumulus riddle the skies this afternoon,
indicative of the mixed out boundary layer. Also a sign of a
deepening boundary layer are the breezy northwesterly winds that
have developed. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph are being reported over
Iowa, with some sites (including Des Moines and Estherville)
gusting over 35 mph around mid-day. Fortunately, while mixing
will continue through the evening, the tighter pressure
gradients and winds aloft will be slowly moving off to the east
as higher pressure continues to build in. This will at least
prevent winds from increasing further, if not slightly decrease
through the afternoon. As the high fills in, the scattered
cumulus will diminish from northwest to southeast, then fully
diminishing after sunset.

With clear skies and a cooler air mass overhead, temperatures will
cool off nicely overnight. Lows before sunrise early Monday morning
will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, before warming back into the
70s on Monday. Dry conditions continue through the daytime hours on
Monday with light to occasionally breezy winds, mainly in northern
Iowa.

By Monday evening and into Tuesday, an upper level wave will begin
to dig into the northwest flow pattern over the central CONUS,
bringing back low precipitation chances Monday night into early
Tuesday. With surface high pressure directly to our south on Monday
our access to low level moisture ahead of this wave will be somewhat
limited, at least initially. Likewise, model soundings indicate a
robust dry sub-cloud layer in place in the low levels Monday night,
thanks to the dry antecedent conditions. This will initially limit
precipitation chances as the wave and coincident boundary drop
southeastward Monday night. However, persistent convergence along
the boundary, increasing mid- and low- level moisture, and weak
instability aloft (~300 to 500 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE) should
allow for at least scattered light rain early Tuesday morning,
especially as the front arrives in southeastern Iowa. Severe chances
are low given the lower instability, but a few storms could
certainly develop as well. Fortunately, this wave will be fairly
progressive and any rainfall that develops will depart the state by
mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Our Tuesday wave eventually pushes the surface high pressure off to
the east, allowing broad surface low pressure to develop over the
plains. At the same time, another upper level wave develops over
Canada and drops southeastward through the northwest flow and into
Iowa during the day Wednesday. This will first bring a surge of
warm, moist air up into Iowa Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a
50+ kt 850 mb low level jet (LLJ) developing overnight. The
combination of this increasing moisture and the LLJ will likely lead
to some thunderstorm development over the region late Tuesday night
and mainly into Wednesday morning for Iowa. These storms will have
access to a juicy environment Wednesday morning, with models
bringing 60 to 70+ dewpoints back into Iowa. Assuming this plays out
as the models imply, instability and shear values will be conducive
for organized convection and severe weather Wednesday.

Confidence is high in Wednesday morning storms at this time, again
assuming the environment pans out the way it`s suggesting (strong
LLJ nosed into Iowa, high dewpoint air, plenty of shear and
instability). Additional storms Wednesday afternoon are a bit less
certain. Current model trends indicate storms firing along a
boundary connected to the wave Wednesday afternoon, generally over
southern Iowa and eastern Iowa. However, the extent of morning
convection could very well muddy up the environment over Iowa for
Wednesday afternoon; a scenario we`ve seen often lately. Therefore,
while severe weather is possible again in the afternoon, the
progression of the wave/boundary and the left-over mesoscale
environment will play a role in how Wednesday afternoon plays out in
Iowa.

The storm prediction center maintains a broad 15% severe
thunderstorm risk over Iowa for Wednesday. This is comparable to a
Day 1 through 3 slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5).
Machine learning guidance is also emphasizing this Wednesday
severe risk, with rather high probabilities centered over north
central Missouri, putting southern Iowa just outside the highest
risk area. These ML probabilities are often heavily CAPE driven
and this is a high CAPE environment. Regardless, it looks
likely we see a return of storms to the state on Wednesday and
the details will continue to be hashed out over the coming days.
Beyond Wednesday, northwest flow continues through the second
half of the week, with periodic low confidence chances for rain
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail today with breezy northwesterly winds
around 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts to 30 kts. Skies
have become filled with scattered to broken diurnal cumulus
clouds around 3500 to 6000 ft. These will likely persist through
the afternoon, steadily diminishing from northwest to southeast
and after sunset. Winds go light to calm overnight, with a
variable wind direction.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dodson
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...Dodson