Coralville, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

796
FXUS63 KDVN 180552
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms, possibly severe, moving in from the west late
  tonight.

- Scattered storms are possible with a frontal passage Friday
  afternoon and evening, mainly along and east of the MS River.

- Another storm system may move across the region Sunday with
  more in the way of widespread rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Tonight, storms are still on track to develop along the cold
front out across western Iowa. The initial convection still
appears to be supercellular. This may surge east along the I-80
corridor as SW 40+ KT LLJ develops. Timing remains on track with
a storm cluster entering our west around/after 11 PM and then
moving east across the area through about 3 AM. After
consistently tracking storms along Highway 20, the latest couple
of runs of the HRRR have shifted the cluster of storms to the
south along I-80. Uncertainty remains in exactly were the storms
will track and unfortunately will be better defined after
development out west around 6/7 PM and the subsequent evolution
this evening. They may still be strong to severe, with damaging
wind gusts and large hail the main risks. It is noted that the
later the storms move into the area, the lower the risk of
reaching severe criteria. The storms should be progressively
weakening as they track eastward which is maintained with SPCs
Slight Risk (2 of 5) generally west of the MS River and a
Marginal Risk (1 of 5) to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Friday, the cold front has slowed a bit and may now result in
some storms development along it during the late afternoon along
and east of the MS River. This remains uncertain as it all
depends on how things unfold tonight. Latest CAMs show some
post-frontal development with potential for some elevated
storms with hail the main risk. Another factor that may hinder
development is the degree of cloud coverage Friday morning. This
could limit heating and delay development off to the south and
east. Will need to monitor forecasts more closely with potential
for quick shifts in the forecast direction. Current timing for
storm potential is between 5 and 8 PM. Highs for Friday are
currently expected to range from the upper 60s far NW CWA to
upper 70s/near 80 SE half or so.  ..14..

Saturday and Sunday...Saturday a cooler post-frontal day with a few
overrunning showers skirting the far south, rest of the area dry
with highs in the 50s and 60s. Some upper 30s in the north Sat
night. Sunday ensembles coming into more agreement of another strong
cyclone rolling up out of southern plains trof base and somewhere
acrs the mid to upper MS RVR Valley. Depending on this system`s
track, heavy rain and severe weather will be possible on it`s
respective northwest and southeast flanks. Will have to stay tuned
for additional model runs for phasing and trends.

Monday through Wednesday...Longer range ensemble trends in the wake
of whatever system can impact the midwest late in the weekend,
suggest a flattening mid CONUS steering flow and temp moderation
early to mid week. Such a progressive flow would probably mean
another precip making system moving acrs the region toward mid
week. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A cluster of thunderstorms will impact KCID/KMLI overnight then
there will be a chance of more storms along a cold front late
afternoon on Friday, mainly at KBRL/KMLI. For now have added a
PROB30 for these storms. South winds will be gusty through
Friday then become northwest with the passage of the front.
MVFR CIGS in/near tstms then also later on Friday associated
with the cold front.

LLWS is also expected overnight.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Haase