Cedar Rapids, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

157
FXUS63 KDVN 141036
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
536 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy/windy through Tuesday with an elevated fire risk.

- Chance (30-60%) for showers late this afternoon and
  evening. Some showers could produce 40-50+ mph wind gusts.

- Cooler weather midweek with the potential for freezing lows
  and frost late Tuesday night/early Wednesday, particularly
  north of I-80.

- Wetter pattern setting up for the latter half of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough traversing the
Upper Midwest early this morning. This has aided in sending
a cold front into the area, which is in the process of
moving through our far eastern counties. A brief bout of
gusty winds 20-30+ kt have been occurring after the frontal
passage, particularly across parts of east central/southeast
Iowa and northeast Missouri within a corridor of 3-4 mb/3 hr
pressure rises. This has also tapped a residual wedge of
warmer air just off the surface and actually led to a brief
temperature rebound/rise into the lower to mid 60s with those
initial gusty NW winds. However, the cold advection is now
beginning to strengthen into our northwest as readings have
dropped back down into the lower to mid 50s. The windy
conditions combined with dry vegetation will lead to an elevated
fire danger today, especially north of I-80 where GFDI values
are more widespread in the very high range. Outdoor burning is
discouraged!

Regional radar imagery shows a narrow ribbon of precipitation
from northern Colorado through southern and eastern Nebraska.
This is in response to a shallow mid-level band of
frontogenetical forcing within the right entrance region of
a cyclonically curved 100+ kt 300 hPa jet on the southern
periphery of the Upper Midwest shortwave. The sub-cloud
layer to the west is very dry and thus a lot of this
is evaporating before reaching the ground, but still some
sprinkles are being observed in spots. This will shift
across the area this morning with similar results in mostly
sprinkles and low chances (<20%) for .01 inch of rain with
any isolated showers. Otherwise, brisk/windy conditions are
in order for today with aid of a tightening pressure gradient
and cold advection while nearly unidirectional winds prove
efficient for momentum transfer. Soundings show around 25-35+ kt
atop the deeply mixed profiles supporting gusts potentially as
high as around 40 mph. HREF and NBM probabilities for wind advisory
criteria (30 mph sustained and 45+ mph gusts) are less than 20%
mainly along and north of the Hwy 30 corridor, thus no headlines
for wind but always have to keep an eye out for any overachieving
in CAA regimes. It will also be notably cooler today for many
compared to yesterday, but still around average with highs in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Late this afternoon through this evening, CAMs are in agreement on
shuttling convection (30-60% coverage) down across the area in
response to digging energy on the backside of the exiting shortwave
into the Great Lakes. What will need to be monitored closely
is the potential for this convection (showers and a few weak storms)
to bring down very strong winds of 40-50+ mph potentially near
severe criteria in isolated instances, with soundings depicting
around 50-100+ j/kg of MUCAPE at the top of the mixed layer.
This activity will begin to fade in coverage and strength after
sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

We`ll start off the period on a continued cool and brisk/windy
note Tuesday, with additional elevated fire danger. Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, high pressure will build in
leading to cold conditions with lows near or just below freezing
for some, particularly north of I-80.

Beyond, the forecast becomes active/unsettled over the latter
half of the week, as a series of troughs in the western
CONUS will aid in strong moisture advection in S/SW flow.
The increase in moisture combined with a frontal zone and
likely a couple of waves rippling along it (attendant to
lifting energy in SW flow aloft) will lead to a period of
wetter/stormier conditions Thursday and Friday. A few machine
learning applications along with SPC guidance continues to
highlight the potential for organized convection, but
this is of lower confidence as there remains several uncertainties
(timing of front, amount of instability, etc.) that will
play into the severe weather potential, so stay tuned as we
go through the week as these details become better defined.
WPC QPF is generally around 0.25 to 0.5 inch, with NBM
probabilities of >0.5 inch for 72 hr period ending 12z Saturday
at 30-40%. Meanwhile the ECE probabilities for >0.5 inch are
higher at 60-70% for much of the area, so there`s still plenty
of potential for the QPF to change. Any precipitation would
of course be welcomed with a good portion of the area still
in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate drought (D1) conditions per
the drought monitor update on April 10th. Temperatures will
likely warm up late week with the increase in moisture. As
we get to next weekend, we`re starting to see more of a signal
for the front to slip far enough south to give us a cooler
and drier start at least to the weekend. However, the lingering
trough in the west is likely to eject out across the central
CONUS late in the weekend and early next week, bringing a return
of showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Gusty NW winds will dominate the period with gusts 25-35+ kt.
A transient band of mid-level frontogenetical forcing will
sweep through the area this morning. Sub-cloud dry air will
lead to much of the precip evaporating before reaching the
ground, but still a few sprinkles are possible south of I-80
with a low chance (20%) for a brief shower near to south of BRL
mid to late AM. Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions are
expected with a brief bout of MVFR ceilings possible near DBQ
and CID later this morning. An upper level disturbance
approaching from the northwest late in the day will bring the
potential for scattered shra and isolated tsra to the terminals
mainly 22z-04z. Greatest coverage (40-60%) will be found near
CID and DBQ with more isolated coverage (10-30%) at MLI and
BRL. Some of these showers could enhance wind gusts to 35-45 kt.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure