Cedar Falls, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS63 KDMX 150849
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
349 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions today with breezy northwest
  winds and low relative humidity values by afternoon.

- Storm chances return by daybreak on Thursday morning and then
  again by late in the day into Thursday night. A few severe
  storms are possible with large hail the main threat.

- Cooler into Friday and the weekend with the potential of widespread
  rainfall late Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Thermal trof currently resides just northeast of Iowa overnight and
remains there through today.  Stratus is also maintaining in the
cyclonic flow aloft and is likely to continue to skirt the far
northeast corners of the forecast area through the morning.
Otherwise, the remainder of the central and western Iowa sees plenty
of sunshine today as another breezy day is expected. Relative
humidity values are expected to drop into the 20 to 35 percent range
by mid afternoon and this leads to elevated fire danger,
particularly in the south and west where humidity values will be the
lowest although winds are also lower in these areas which keep it
from bumping into Red Flag conditions at this time.

Warm advection intensifies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as
thermal ridging in the Plains shifts toward Iowa.  Readings by
Wednesday afternoon are expected to be a good 10 to 15 degrees
warmer than Tuesday supported by ample sunshine and increasing south
winds.  Moisture/theta-e advection strengthens into Wednesday
night/Thursday morning as the low level jet intensifies and directs
towards Iowa.  Some convection becomes possible across southern Iowa
toward daybreak on Thursday with this increasing moisture.  This
isolated to scattered activity is likely to move quickly northeast
on Thursday morning as an elevated mixed layer passes across Iowa.
This effectively caps off convection by midday and into the
afternoon with soundings showing a substantial warm layer to
overcome.  Convection is more likely to develop north and west of
Iowa on late Thursday afternoon and evening closer to an advancing
boundary and may pass across the north on Thursday night.  Farther
south, some elevated convection remains possible in central and
southern Iowa although coverage is likely to remain a bit more
isolated to scattered with the main concern from hail given the
elevated nature of the storms.

Lingering showers remain possible in the weakening forcing on
Friday morning across northern Iowa but increasing subsidence
and cold advection should end the precipitation threat by
midday. The front remains south of Iowa later Friday into Sunday
morning along with the precipitation. The airmass is cooler and
drier with temperatures slightly below normal for much of the
weekend. By later Sunday into early Monday, an upper low in the
southwest ejects northeast toward Iowa with showers spreading
into the state by late Sunday and persisting into Monday
morning. Widespread generous rainfall is becoming more likely
during this timeframe. The medium term deterministic diverge
quickly at this point with the Euro much more progressive with
the late weekend shortwave whilst the GFS lingers much longer.
At this point, there is plenty of time to let the models
converge on a solution for a system that far into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Mostly VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow aside from a
brief period of MVFR at KALO and potentially KMCW as stratus
clips the northeastern portions of the forecast area early this
morning. Confidence is highest in this impacting KALO, while
KMCW will be more on the fringe of the lower cloud deck. Winds
diminish some through the morning, but occasionally stronger
gusts remain possible, so have continued these in TAFs for the
time being. Winds will become breezy out of the northwest again
today with sustained winds of 15 to 20 kts and gusts of 25 to
30 kts. Winds then diminish into the evening hours.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Dodson