Burlington, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

359
FXUS63 KDVN 030604
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
104 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires will continue to stream
  southward over our region early in the week. Some of the smoke
  could mix down to the surface and lead to reduced air quality
  at times.

- Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms are on tap
  for Tuesday, and again Thursday and Friday. Some of the storms
  Tuesday could become strong to severe, although confidence
  remains low on the overall potential.

- Largely beneficial rainfall is expected this week, with most
  of it falling from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
  Flooding threat should remain minimal, except if copious
  rainfall occurs over urban areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Very warm conditions were seen across the area early this afternoon,
with current temperatures seen in the middle to upper 80s - warmest
across eastern Iowa. Smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to
linger aloft over the area, which can be seen using geocolor
satellite imagery. Both the HRRR and RAP near-surface smoke
models suggest some of the highest concentration of smoke we`ve
seen over the last few days, and looking at a vertical cross
section of the HRRR smoke model, it is possible for some of the
smoke to mix down to the surface this afternoon/evening, as the
NAM/RAP/GFS models all suggest mixing to around 800 mb, which
would be sufficient to reach the smoke aloft. So far over the
last few days, smoke hasn`t really led to any noteworthy
reductions in visibility or air quality, but given the deep
boundary layer mixing expected today, we could still see some
reductions in air quality. The smoke is expected to wane a bit
late tonight into Tuesday as the northerly steering flow aloft
should become more westerly as an upper-level ridge sweeps
through the area.

Attention then turns to an approaching upper trough from the
northwestern CONUS, with an attendant cold front progged to move
through our area Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.
Confidence is quite high in a soaking rainfall across the area,
given forecast PWAT values between 1.8 to 2"+, which is around
the 99th percentile per the ECWMF PWAT climatological
percentiles. In terms of amounts, the 02.12z HREF PMM QPF
fields suggest total amounts through Tuesday night around
0.5-1.5", with some isolated higher amounts possible. This is
actually lower than what the guidance was going previously, so
this is a trend downward. If these amounts come to fruition,
then our flooding concerns would be lowered. Still, if any
flooding does occur, it will most likely be over urban areas. As
for timing, models are in good agreement on the first wave of
showers and storms moving into western counties early Tuesday
morning in a decaying fashion as it outruns the zone of better
instability and shear. The more organized and widespread
activity is expected to form during the early/mid afternoon
across northwest Missouri into south-central Iowa, then move
into western and southwest counties during the late afternoon or
evening, reaching NE of the Quad Cities into Tuesday night.

In terms of severe weather potential, SPC continues to have a large
portion of our CWA in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe
weather. Confidence in severe potential remains lower than
usual, especially due to weaker mid-level lapse rates (at or
below 6.5 C/km) and more limited instability (MLCAPE between
500- 1000 J/kg), so large hail potential appears low. However,
damaging winds appear possible, primarily due to stronger
kinematics via strengthening southwesterly flow through the
column, and the potential for water-loaded updrafts could
generate cold pools and surging flow to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

A break in the widespread rain is anticipated later Wednesday into
Thursday as the surface front shifts to the southeast.
Another wave of low pressure is forecast to ride along the low-level
boundary positioned across northern Missouri into central Illinois.
This could bring another round of widespread showers and storms to
the region mainly from Thursday evening into Friday, with the
heaviest rain falling along/south of I-80. Looking ahead to the
upcoming weekend, the NBM has low chances for showers and storms
with highs around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

As showers and a few storms hold off to the west, a mainly VFR
overnight into early morning with south sfc winds maintaining at
10-15 KTs. An approaching front and sfc wave will produce
isolated sctrd precursor showers and possibly some thunder
moving through the TAF sites by mid morning, with some passing
MVFR CIGs and VSBYs. Then expect a midday to early afternoon
lull in the precip activity with varying MVFR to VFR CIGs with
gusty south to southwesterly sfc winds up to 28 KTs. Then will
have to watch for the main line or linear clusters of showers
and thunderstorms moving in from the west and southwest during
the mid afternoon through early evening period. The best bet for
strong to severe storms with high variable wind gusts appears
to be south of I-80 during the late afternoon into evening.
There will be a frontal passage wind shift(or storm outflow) to
the west during the evening, with moisture convergence
supporting low MVFR CIGs along and behind these frontal
features. Lighter rain could linger in spots well into Tue night
especially along and east of the MS RVR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz/Uttech
AVIATION...12