Burlington, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

932
FXUS63 KDVN 121731
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  "Cold" front still on track to move through the area from the northwest
   late today, leaving us with high pressure and a drier influx
   of dewpoints. Daytime temperatures will still remain
   seasonably warm through the week.

- After today, we will remain largely dry for the remainder of
  the week, with precipitation chances increasing not until the
  weekend and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Today...After the ongoing MCS and it`s trailing stratiform rain
fields exit out of the area this morning, today may be mainly dry or
low coverage isolated showers or a storm popping up diurnally along
lingering quasi-stationary boundary in place. But there will be
plenty of convective debris clouds to erode today and may limit
instability-diurnal heating some to support more of sctrd coverage
as the main upstream upper trof axis will still be off to the west.
Thus still some lift going until the axis swipes off to the east by
mid to late evening. Thus will trim back POPs for the expected low
coverage. The eroding debris/clouds and weak LLVL flow should keep
the high temps mainly in the low to mid 80 degree range, and sfc
DPTs in the low to mid 70s to last until the main upstream(real cool
front) starts to sweep in this evening as the upper trof axis starts
to migrate off to the east as well. Stronger storm reformation
should take place to the east and northeast of our local area of
concern later this afternoon.

Tonight...As teased above, this is the period the real cool front
will slip through the area from the northwest, mainly during the
evening and through midnight. With limited moisture and instability,
the latest CAMs suggest the front to have a hard time kicking up and
associated F-Gen induce showers/storms along it, maybe a few
isolated showers that won`t look to last too long into the mid to
late evening hours. Again only low POPs warranted for this FROPA
process this evening. Post-frontal low temps to range from the upper
50s in the far northwest, to the mid 60s in the southeast. Will bank
on enough post-frontal northwest to northerly sfc flow to maintain to
limit any fog chances late tonight, except maybe in some river
valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Wednesday...A fine post-frontal day with a passing sfc ridge. High
temps in the upper 70s to low 80s, with sfc DPTs advected down into
the 60s. May have to keep at least some patchy fog in mind for Wed
night if we stay clear with light to calm sfc winds.

Late in the week and beyond, we see LLVL southwesterly flow increase
over the area again, with warm advection allowing for higher
humidity air to work in, as well as increase the temperatures. Upper
80s to low 90s will remain through the weekend, with humid
conditions, making it feel a little unpleasant again. Current
forecast hints at the potential for heat indices around 100 for
some. While we will see moisture increase through the area, the
corridor of strongest southwesterly flow will remain west of the
area, keeping the best moisture and forcing west of the area. Thus,
precipitation chances remain low (<30%) for now, with spatial
coverage limited at this time. Storm track currently seems to be
north and west of the area, but will come close enough that the
current PoPs are largely confined to our northern counties. This
pattern will slowly shift easterly though, introducing more
widespread chance PoPs (30-40% chance) Sunday through Monday. Thus,
this will be something to monitor over the next few days, as an
active pattern will set up somewhere over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley late this weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

MVFR CIGs will persist at or near all terminals through mid-
afternoon. VFR will return thereafter and continue until early
Wednesday morning before MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are
possible just before sunrise. Skies will clear shortly after
sunrise and remain VFR through the end of the TAF period.
Generally light winds will continue, switching from west to
north into Wednesday behind a cold front.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Gunkel/12
AVIATION...AP