South Bend, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

218
FXUS63 KIWX 062249
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
649 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers (20%) are possible this afternoon and evening.

- There is a chance (40-70%) for showers and embedded storms
  Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Near normal temperatures expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The vast majority of radar returns and associated light rain
have remained south of the forecast area with some some pockets
of drizzle noted from time to time. A few weak showers have
attempted to develop along an area of weak convergence (lake
breeze?) in the far NW parts of the area where dewpoints along
the lake shore were in the 40s. This "drier" layer will try to
make some headway this evening, likely reaching South Bend but
not much further. Minor changes have been made to dewpoints to
address these trends. Thereafter, some questions remain as to
the amount of clearing that works SE as the inversion sets up
and likihood for some stratus development increases. No
significant changes to cloud cover for the time being.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Isolated showers remain possible this afternoon into early this
evening in the vicinity of a weak 925-850 mb trough axis and
differential heating boundaries. More widespread shower/storm
activity likely bypasses south otherwise this evening as a
convectively aided impulse takes a more southerly route east
through the Ohio Valley.

Later tonight into most of Saturday will feature dry conditions and
a trend toward at least partly cloudy skies as weak ridging
translates east through the Great Lakes in between upper level
waves.

A model consensus has continued to come into better agreement on a
period of rain later Saturday night into Sunday morning as a
more pronounced pv anomaly tracks east through the southern
Great Lakes inducing a weak sfc reflection or inverted trough.
There does remain slight timing/track differences which keeps
PoPs generally capped in the mid chance range (highest south).

A cold front will slide through Sunday night on the leading edge of
a large upper level low diving southeast into the western/northern
Great Lakes by Monday. These features will bring periodic rain
chances, though chances/amounts are limited this time around due to
lacking moisture and quick movement. Mainly dry and trending
warmer then behind the upper low for the mid-late week periods.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

VFR conditions are in place at both sites with the big question
overnight being how much stratus re-develops at both locations
with the greatest confidence of deteriorating conditions wrt to
cigs and vsby still residing at KFWA well entrenched in the
moister airmass. At KSBN, a weak area of convergence (pseudo
front/lake breeze) is likely to reach KSBN allowing for
additional clearing and lowering of dewpoints to possibly negate
more significant flight impacts. For the time being, only minor
adjustments will be made at both locations with trends to be
monitored over the next several hours to address impacts from
the aformentioned boundary and speed of potential stratus/fog
development. After sunrise on Saturday, conditions should
improve for any locations that are being impacted by MVFR or IFR
cigs/vsbys as drier air works in for a short time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Saturday
     night for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-022>027-032>034-103-
     104-116-203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078>081-
     177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Fisher