South Bend, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS63 KIWX 172352 AAA
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
749 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance (10-30%) for measurable rain showers
  and sprinkles tonight.

- Warm and windy on Friday with highs in the mid 70s to near 80
  degrees.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight Friday night. A few
  storms may become strong to severe.

- There are periodic chances (30-60%) for rain this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

A warm front will lift northeast through the area tonight on the
leading edge of deepening southwest flow preceding a south-central
Canada to Four Corners positively tilted upper trough. A few showers
or sprinkles may accompany the elevated theta-e gradient late this
afternoon into this evening. HREF members continue to generate
elevated convection over the Upper Midwest tonight, with the bulk of
this activity bypassing north through WI and central MI later
tonight into early Friday morning north of the sfc warm front. Held
on to a low chance PoP in the far north during this time given the
somewhat close proximity.

A strongly capped and windy warm sector becomes well established
Friday into early Friday evening with highs generally mid 70s to
near 80F. Cold front then drops southeast into the area later Friday
night into Saturday morning in response to the northern piece of the
upstream upper trough breaking east through the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes. Favorable deep layer shear profiles, and an
impressive EML with nearly 1000 j/kg of MUCAPE, bring about some
concern for a few severe storms overnight Friday night. However,
model trends are delayed in breaking the strong capping inversion
given weak forcing with convection possibly more iso/sct in nature
before filling in to the south-southeast Saturday morning. Lowered
PoPs before 06z as a result, with activity initially likely more
isolated (supercell/hail) before a few remnant linear segments
(wind) potentially emerge later Friday night.

Cooler/seasonable weather returns post-frontal into the weekend as
the boundary stalls out of the OH River Valley. A continues feed of
moist southerly flow under perturbed southwest flow aloft will keep
this baroclinic zone active, with a few bouts of rain possible on
its northern fringe, best chances over southern zones. Leftover
shortwave over the Four Corners does eject northeast with its
associated sfc reflection tracking up through the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. This will
drive an occluded front through during this time with additional
rain chances. Drier air arrives behind this system then into Monday
afternoon and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 744 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. A light sprinkle or
light rain shower possible tonight, but drier low levels should
mitigate those chances. With increasing strong southerly to
southwesterly flow aloft and more southerly flow at the surface LLWS
of 45 to 55 kts expected. Gusts at the surface of 25 to 30 knots
likely especially after 09z Fri.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen