Muncie, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

772
FXUS63 KLOT 290009
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
609 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Storm Warning in effect for the entire area for late
  tonight into Saturday night.

- Impactful snow will move in late tonight into early Saturday
  morning. There is >90% chance for 6"+ amounts and higher end
  travel impacts along and north of Pontiac to Kankakee to
  Valparaiso line. The highest snowfall rates and worst
  conditions are expected Saturday afternoon into early evening.

- Increasing chance (60%) of light accumulating snow late Monday
  afternoon and night.

- Well below normal temperatures will persist through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Through Monday:

All eyes are on the expected widespread early season heavy snow
event across the region beginning late tonight and continuing
into at least Sunday morning.

The parent trough responsible for the incoming system is
currently analyzed near the Grand Tetons. The trough will
continue on an ESE/SE trajectory through tonight as it phases
with a remnant subtropical wave now over the far southern
Rockies. The resultant amplification of the trough will swing
across the far western Great Lakes while exhibiting a slight
negative tilt by Saturday evening. The kinematic and
thermodynamic set-up continue to become more impressive as the
event nears. Loose coupling of a departing upper jet streak over
the western Great Lakes and a strengthening 130 knot jet streak
entering MO and southern IL late Saturday afternoon will
provide plenty of upper-level support. Meanwhile, decent height
falls and expansive mid-level diffluence will spread across the
region. Stepping downward, guidance has shown a substantial
trend toward a sharpening 700 hPa frontogenesis axis while also
exhibiting increasing mid-level isentropic ascent below 7C/km
600-400 hPa lapse rates. Lastly, robust low-level moisture
transport of 50 knot southerly winds will provide a continuous
feed of moisture into the system. Needless to say, the continued
favored low track from the IA/MO/IL triple point to over
Chicago would not climatologically support a large snow-maker in
late November. But with the cold post-Thanksgiving airmass in
place and abundant forcing noted above, we are trending toward a
decent snow event for much of the forecast area.

There remain a few varying fail modes for widespread heavy snow
across the area. First, initial deep saturation on the western
extent of a rather dry airmass centered over the Tennessee
Valley will likely result in top-down saturation under only the
strongest ribbons of low/mid-level isentropic ascent and
frontogenesis. So as snow begins to spread eastward late tonight
and into Saturday morning, narrow bands of moderate to heavy
snow may be interspersed within a broader area of light snow.

Second, the steep lapse rates aloft will support borderline
upright convection above the impressive 700 hPa f-gen band, with
a decent amount of CSI present wherever upright convection does
not develop near and north of the band. In this case, a narrow
band of very heavy snow would settle over west-central Illinois
through the morning and early afternoon before lifting ENE over
much of the CWA later in the afternoon and early evening. This
would possibly cut down on snow totals through the morning and
limit the higher snow rates of 1"/hr or higher to a <6hr window
mid-afternoon into early evening over northern Illinois.

Finally, the more northern track of the surface low and
negative tilt of the trough suggest that a rapidly advancing dry
slot will cut off much of the better snow production, even
transitioning to drizzle, for much of the southeast half of the
CWA by early Saturday evening. Like the second point above, this
would limit the window for the higher snowfall rates to only
around 6 hours or so.

Regardless of all that said above, the combination of deep
moisture and very strong forcing will result in a period of
heavy snow with very hazardous travel conditions Saturday
afternoon into early evening. Additionally, the northern low
track now means that stronger SE winds with gusts over 25 mph
will become prevalent and create some blowing and drifting snow
concerns in open areas during the afternoon and early evening.
Snow totals areawide still look to fall in the 6 to 10 inch
range with a likely embedded band of more than 10 inches
somewhere over the area. The entire area remains in a Winter
Storm Warning late tonight through much of Saturday night.


Sunday and Sunday Night:

A 1035-1040 hPa high building into the Great Plains impinging
on the low over Lake Huron and Georgian Bay on Sunday will
induce strong gradient winds and a modest 3-6mb/3hr pressure
rise over much of the area. Some shallow blowing and drifting
snow will likely persist for open areas conditional on a drier
character of the expected snow pack. Will include patchy
blowing snow in the forecast for now, with the greatest concerns
on N/S-oriented roadways in open areas west of the Fox River
Valley. Additionally, ongoing strong CAA with shallow stratus
under a steadily lowering subsidence will support some lingering
light snow showers or flurries well into the day Sunday. The
lower inversion will also limit lake effect snow intensity near
the lake in northwest Indiana, but additional minor
accumulations are probable for northeast Porter County.

The inversion should lower enough to erode remaining stratus
Sunday night as the surface ridge edges toward the area. As long
as stratus does not persist well into the night, diminishing
winds with a fresh snow pack will promote a rather chilly Sunday
night with lows potentially at or below zero across interior
northern Illinois.

Kluber



Monday Night through Friday:

The primary forecast focus beyond this weekend`s winter storm
is the increasing potential for another round of accumulating
snowfall during the Monday afternoon-Monday night. The multi-
model consensus this morning continues to advertise a secondary
shortwave dropping south through the Great Basin Sunday night
and eventually ejecting across the Central Plains on Monday as a
positively-tilted trough. This orientation would result in a
fairly progressive system overall, but intensifying mid-level
frontogenesis is forecast to result in an expanding region of
generally light snow across parts of our forecast area. A
significant north-south spread exists persists in the guidance
and ensemble output today, but in general, the favored location
for fgen-enhanced snowfall appears to be setting up somewhere
across the southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area.

Main concern during this period is that snow would be falling
into a cold airmass with surface temperatures in the upper teens
to mid 20s which would easily result in slick/hazardous travel
even with modest snowfall amounts. The other aspect that has our
attention is some degree of near-upright/convective instability
in recent model guidance above the main frontogenetic
circulations which could end up locally-enhancing precip rates.
At this time, liquid amounts are generally a quarter inch or
less which would support perhaps 2-4 inches of snowfall given
generally modest ascent through the DGZ and and cold surface
temperatures. Too much uncertainty at this point to pinpoint the
main threat area, but something we`ll be keeping a close eye on
over the coming days.

Increased cloud cover may end up tempering overnight lows/wind
chills a bit more than the currently-advertised NBM grids, but
cold conditions will nonetheless prevail next week. A
reinforcing shot of cold air is generally forecast to arrive
midweek as a roughly 1040 mb arctic high slides southward across
the central CONUS, perhaps with an additional round of snow or
at least flurries as the boundary layer saturates into the base
of a very deep dendritic growth zone.

Carlaw

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Snow overspreads the region late tonight/early Saturday
  morning and continues through Saturday evening.

- CIGS and VSBYs will steadily deteriorate through Saturday
  morning. Periods of LIFR VSBYs are expected, particularly
  Saturday afternoon (localized VLIFR possible).

- Snowfall rates will average around 0.5"/hr but will peak
  around 1"/hr Saturday afternoon.

This evening:

Winds will be light and variable through the evening with
increasing mid and high-level cloud coverage as the winter
system approaches.

Tonight:

Light snow/flurries (P6SM -SN) may begin to move into the area
as early as 5-7Z but it will take some time for the snow to
work through a lingering dry layer. Have nudged back the onset
time for MVFR -SN at ORD to 8Z to match MDW and it is possible
this could end up still being a bit early. Will continue to
monitor upstream trends. Winds will begin to prevail light
southeasterly and gradually increase through the night.

Saturday morning:

The first true wave of steadier snow with associated IFR VSBYs
arrives toward or shortly after daybreak on Saturday. Opted to
maintain the 11Z timing for the Chicago area terminals for now
(10Z at RFD). Expect steadily deteriorating conditions through
the remainder of the morning hours. Can`t ruled out occasional
periods of LIFR VSBYs and IFR CIGs by mid-late morning. Winds
will become increasingly gusty through the day, with gusts to
20-25kt expected by late morning.

Saturday afternoon:

This is the window where snowfall rates have the potential to
reach or at times exceed 1"/hr. Given the anticipated increase
in snowfall intensity during this time we opted to convert the
multiple TEMPO groups for 1/2 SM VSBYs into a single prevailing
period from 18-00Z. This window may need to be adjusted by an
hour or two either side of that with later updates. Localized
dips to VLIFR also cannot be fully ruled out but confidence in
any particular time window remain too low for a formal TAF
mention at this time.

Saturday evening:

As the center of the low moves into the area in the evening
winds will begin to ease and snowflake size will decrease
(leading to lower snow rates of 0.25"/hr or less). This may
also coincide with a brief mix or full changeover to light
drizzle paired with lowering CIGs and VSBYs back down to LIFR to
potentially locally VLIFR in BR/FG. Have introduced PROB30s to
account for this potential toward the end of the 30-hr TAF
window from 4-6Z.

Petr

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
     ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ103-ILZ104-
     ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108.

     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for ILZ033-ILZ039.

IN...Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     INZ001-INZ002.

     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ Saturday to
     midnight CST /1 AM EST/ Saturday night for INZ010-INZ011-
     INZ019.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 10 PM CST Sunday
     for the IL nearshore waters.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 7 AM CST Monday for
     the IN nearshore waters.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for Burns
     Harbor to Michigan City IN.

&&

$$

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