Mishawaka, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

628
FXUS63 KIWX 231658
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1158 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be dry and seasonable for the rest of the weekend.

- The next chance for rain arrives early on Monday and ends
  late in the day. Rain will likely be more scattered in the
  morning, with the highest chances in the afternoon and
  evening.

- Additional chances for rain/snow will be possible mid to late
  week around Thanksgiving.

- Much colder air follows for the weekend after Thanksgiving;
  highs in the 20s and 30s are possible with lows potentially
  in the 10s and 20s!

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Just some minor changes made to going forecast, but main theme
of previous forecast left intact. Low level inversion heights
continue to lower today as best 925-850 mb moisture shifts east
of the area. This inversion and stubborn shallow moisture should
tend to keep low clouds locked in place across the area. Some
subtle mid level height recovery across the western Great Lakes
is also allowing overcast mid level cloud to push in from the
west. Upon collaboration with surrounding offices, have
continued upward trend in sky cover into tonight with little
opportunity to mix out low level moisture. Water vapor imagery
does indicate a sheared vorticity max across western WI which
should dive southeast following progression of an upper level
speed max. This forcing could give rise to enough weak low level
lift from brief flare up of some more patchy light drizzle this
afternoon/early evening, but depth of low level moisture may
not be supportive. Have also made small downward adjustment to
highs today across western portions of forecast area following
trend of more prolonged low cloud coverage.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Dry conditions prevail through much of the weekend as subsidence
returns. Winds switch from the northwest to the west/southwest later
today, which will put an end to any remaining lake effect rain
showers and drizzle. Mid and high level cloud cover will persist as
a result of WAA. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s this
weekend, which is near normal for this time of year.

A large area of low pressure ejects out of the Colorado Rockies on
Sunday, traversing the Central Plains and arriving to our area by
Monday. With temperatures in the 40s Monday morning and into the mid
50s by the afternoon, any precipitation will fall as rain. WAA and
increases in low level moisture and lift will aid in the
development of scattered showers as the system quickly moves
through the area on Monday.

Additional chances for rain/snow are possible mid to late in the
week around Thanksgiving. Confidence is low; It still too far out to
determine impacts, if any, for the Thanksgiving travel period. In
the past 12-24 hours, recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS have trended
further south with the system, keeping it out of our area. We will
continue to monitor to see if this trend continues in upcoming runs.
Further complicating the forecast is the potential for split flow
aloft in the jet stream...without a supportive upper air pattern,
this would impact how the system evolves at the surface. The track,
intensity, timing, and precipitation type(s) with this system will
have to be ironed out in the coming week. For now, will stick with
the NBM PoPs for the Wednesday to Friday timeframe, which are 30-
50%. Given the immense uncertainty mid to late in the week, these
PoPs will likely change in the coming days.

While there is still a lot of be resolved with the mid to late week
weather system, long range model guidance does show a consensus in
much colder air arriving after Thanksgiving. Highs in the 20s and
30s are possible with lows potentially in the 10s and 20s! The
Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Outlook has 70-90% probabilities
for colder than normal temperatures across our forecast area for the
end of November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Stratus remains locked in this afternoon. Upstream observations
and model guidance support continued cloudiness today with
ceilings on either side of 2,000 ft. Dry air advection from the
southwest ought to permit ceilings to gradually rise through
the period, but confidence is medium at best. There is a non-
zero chance of IFR ceilings after 06z, but confidence is low.
This stubborn low-level inversion could ease Sunday afternoon
with rising heights nosing into the region.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Brown