Michigan City, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

923
FXUS63 KIWX 061451
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1051 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Elevated fire risk for brush and field fires this afternoon
  due to dry, mild and windy conditions. Pockets of Red Flag
  conditions are possible late this afternoon.

* Dry pattern continues into the upcoming work week.

* Warm conditions continue today followed by cooler (near
  normal) temperatures for Monday to Wednesday. Temperatures
  warm again to above normal late work week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For today...Strong upper level short wave will continue to
track across northern Wisconsin into northern Lower Michigan
this morning. Pre-frontal shower development has been a struggle
as a warm 800-700 mb layer associated with an elevated mixed
layer has limited extent of instability realized. Any potential
isolated shower would be very high based in this setup, and high
based nature would likely limit coverage/intensity of any
development. May keep just some slight chance PoPs across
southern Lower MI for a few hours early this morning. Sfc cold
front at 07Z extends from far SE Wisconsin into west central
Illinois. This front will be progressive through midday and
likely to shift east of far NE Indiana/NW Ohio Counties after
17Z. Favored diurnal timing for convection developing along this
front still appears to be well east of the local area into
eastern Ohio and will continue with a dry forecast. Despite the
early frontal passage today, deep post frontal mixing should
delay temp drops a bit behind the front. Some lower 80s are
possible briefly across far northeast Indiana/NW Ohio south of
US-24 before stronger cold advection takes over later in the
afternoon.

Intrusion of stratospheric air into the mid troposphere on western
flank of aforementioned Great Lakes upper trough and low/mid level
subsidence should act to enhance the post-frontal dry air advection
today leading to fire weather concerns. Still some question into
extreme northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio on timing of the
sharper dew point drops, and some limited moisture recovery of low
level dew points could occur downwind of Lake Michigan. However,
most of the area does appear to drop to afternoon min RH`s of 20-30
percent this afternoon leading to an elevated fire risk in terms of
the potential of brush and field fires when combined with strong
post-frontal wind gusts to around 30 mph. More details on the fire
weather forecast for this afternoon can be found in the fire weather
section below.

For tonight,,,wind gusts subside this evening but continued cold
advection overnight will allow some degree of low level mixing to
continue. This should prevent temps from bottoming out more than the
mid 40s. Some patchy stratocu is possible also, particularly
across northern half of the area more entrenched in low level
thermal trough.

For Monday through Wednesday...subtle mid level height rises and
core of low level thermal trough shifting into the eastern Great
Lakes should provide near normal/slightly below normal temperatures.
Despite cooler temperatures this period, airmass will remain quite
dry with low afternoon min RH values. Winds during this period
should be on the light side however due to expansive low level
anticyclone from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. This should
limit extent of fire weather concerns for this period.

For Friday into next weekend...medium range guidance continues to
indicate this period characterized by better progression of central
CONUS mid/upper ridging, This leads to continued high confidence in
warming trend back to above normal levels. Depending on timing of
this evolution, may need to further adjust temps up
Friday/Saturday with a potential of some low-mid 80s high
temperatures during this period. Of lower confidence is any
additional precip chances next weekend. Some indication of an
upper short wave dampening with ridge with potential fropa, but
will continue to hold off on mentionable PoPs late this period
due to a large deterministic/ensemble spread.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A low pressure system is expected to push a cold front through the
area this morning, but the front is expected to be dry. The airmass
behind the front is even drier still and this should allow for
prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period. With the strong
gradient along the front and sunny skies allowing for mixing, expect
gusty winds between 25 and 30 kts during the day today. Initially
southerly and southwesterly winds become more northwesterly behind
the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

BLUF: Regardless of the issuance (or lack of) any Red Flag
warnings this afternoon, burning activities should be postponed
and harvest operations should use extreme caution.

Lots of coordination has taken place over the past couple of
hours regarding concerns for Red Flag Warning criteria being
met. A very difficult call to hoist in portions of the area as
concerns for 1) 3 hour duration not being met, 2) 10 hour fuels
near or just above thresholds and 3) degree of mixing of
dewpoints this afternoon. GRR and DTX have hoisted RFWs with GRR
up against our area in swath of strongest low RH signals as well
as based on land management officials.

Cold front was located from west of Coldwater, MI to near out
office and southeast to Monticello. 10 to 15 degree drop in
dewpoints has been fairly consistent showing after fropa. The
lower mid to upr 30 dewpoints are advancing into NW IL and
across WI and should arrive by mid afternoon. HRRR continues
show a narrow swath of increased mixing of dry air with
dewpoints into the upper 20s. RAP appears to have joined in as
well. Winds will increase this afternoon as noted back in WI/NW
IL with sustained 10 to 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph in
spots.

Waiting to hear from land management officials across N Indiana,
but all other offices are holding off on any headlines and
continuing with SPS/social media messaging which has been done
here for the past 24 to 36 hours. Will closely monitor
conditions with a hoisting of a RFW in portions of the area
still possible over the next couple of hours with alignment of
best conditions in the 20-23Z time frame. A freshen up of
social media posts will likely be done to realign the greatest
concern area more SW to NE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Marsili
AVIATION...Roller
FIRE WEATHER...Fisher