Jeffersonville, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

139
FXUS63 KLMK 050741
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
341 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this
  afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms with gusty winds,
  torrential rainfall, and lightning are possible.

* Seasonable temperatures and daily chances for afternoon showers
  and thunderstorms are expected for most of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Over the past few hours, residual showers and thunderstorms have
dissipated across the area, leaving us with scattered clouds and
almost completely dry weather across central KY and southern IN.
Temperatures have settled into the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s as
of 07Z, with areas that received rain Saturday evening slightly
cooler than those which have not. Quiet conditions should continue
this morning, with the main potential weather impact being
development of patchy fog in areas with freshly saturated soils.
Temperatures should remain steady in the upper 60s and low 70s
through sunrise.

Over the past 24 hours, the upper ridge which has been over the
southeast US for much of the past week began to break down, with
baggy upper troughing now extending from the Ohio Valley into the
upper Mississippi Valley. A weak area of sfc low pressure is
currently located over the Ohio Valley, with a weakly-defined sfc
front over the Great Lakes. Today, this upper trough and sfc front
will track very slowly to the east-southeast, and the front should
remain well north of our area through this evening. As a result,
we`ll still have a humid, but slightly less hot environment in place
across the area, with highs expected to range between 86-90 this
afternoon.

Speaking of moisture, PW values should be between the 80th and 90th
percentile of climatology today (roughly 1.8-1.9"), though soundings
suggest that more of this will come from richer mid- and upper-level
moisture than moisture near the sfc. This may result in less
thunderstorm fuel this afternoon and evening, as model skew-T plots
show a much skinnier CAPE profile than in past days, with less steep
low- and mid-level lapse rates. HREF median values of SBCAPE are
between 1500-2500 J/kg across the area this afternoon, with higher
values as you go toward the TN Valley. Nevertheless, this should
still be sufficient for showers and storms to develop this afternoon
and evening. As has been the case for the past few days, the key
question is whether there will be sufficient forcing/triggering for
more widespread storm development. 00Z short range model guidance
suggests that several mid-level vort lobes/MCVs will be swinging
around the edge of the upper trough this afternoon, with current
progs splitting them to the south and north of the area. As a
result, convective coverage may be limited initially, and may be
dependent on other areas of showers and storms developing just
outside of our area. Have reduced PoPs blended guidance, and expect
isolated to maybe widely scattered coverage from mid-afternoon
through early evening. While one or two strong storms will be
possible, a less explosive thermodynamic profile may limit the wet
microburst potential today, and only a small portion of the area
from Lake Cumberland up into the southern Bluegrass region is in the
Day 1 MRGL risk.

Would expect coverage of showers and storms to decrease once again
by around midnight Monday morning, with a few showers potentially
lingering into the pre-dawn hours. A fairly stagnant environment may
lead to more fog development Monday morning, particularly in valleys
and in areas which receive rain this afternoon. Lows should fall
into the upper 60s and low 70s in most locations Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The forecast over the first half of the week may be heavily
influenced by the remnants of the upper low that will sink into the
region later today. In contrast to earlier runs, the latest ensemble
guidance tends to hold onto the upper low and associated sfc front
for a considerable portion of the period Monday through Wednesday,
also keeping a more moist air mass over the area. With weak vertical
wind shear (~10 kt) and modest instability (1000-2000 J/kg) showing
up in forecast soundings, it looks like a setup for garden-variety
afternoon and evening showers and storms. Since the overall forcing
is fairly modest, think that global models may be over-representing
storm coverage, with isolated to scattered storms expected each
afternoon Monday and Tuesday. There may be enough of an eastward
push in the low by Wednesday for diminished storm coverage across
our area, though confidence in this is fairly low at this time.
Seasonable temperatures are expected for Monday through Wednesday
night, with highs ranging from 85-90 and lows in the upper 60s and
low 70s.

By Thursday, another low-amplitude upper trough is expected to slide
across the north and northeast side of upper ridging over the
Rockies and Plains, bringing a sfc cold front toward the Ohio Valley
for the end of the week into next weekend. Ensemble guidance shows a
resurgence of moisture ahead of this next system, with PW values
rising to around 1.7-1.9". Increasing moisture should likewise
increase instability, and somewhat stronger mid- and upper-level
winds should support stronger shear and more storm organization.
Like this trough this weekend, the late week system may struggle to
gain amplitude, causing the sfc front to slowly push through the
area or even stall by early next weekend. As a result, another
unsettled period of weather looks increasingly likely Friday into
next weekend, with daily chances for scattered to numerous showers
and storms. Temperatures may warm a bit Thursday ahead of the
approaching front, but then fairly seasonable temperatures are
likely for Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Most of the showers and storms have dissipated across the area, and
dry weather is likely at all terminals through at least late this
morning. Light and variable winds are expected through mid-morning,
with winds picking up out of the W/SW later today. Main thing we`ll
have to watch between now and sunrise is patchy fog development,
particularly at HNB and BWG which saw rain at least in the vicinity
this evening. Overall, confidence is low-medium at best, and
scattered mid-level clouds may limit the potential.

Later today, VFR conditions are expected though some lower clouds
may approach HNB and SDF after sunrise. While isolated thunderstorms
will be possible across the area this afternoon and evening,
confidence in timing and location is too low to include in the
forecast at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...CSG