Evansville, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS63 KPAH 112320
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- River flooding continues to impact most of the area. Most
  river points will see crests in moderate to major categories.

- A Frost Advisory is in effect early Saturday morning for most
  of the region east of the Mississippi River.

- Generally quiet weather with seasonable temperatures is
  forecast through the next seven days, with a small chances of
  showers and thunderstorms Monday, and higher chances on
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

An upper-level disturbance over the eastern CONUS will gradually
shift eastward away from the region overnight, with increasing
H5 heights and surface high pressure arriving in its wake. This
will bring clearing skies and light winds. NBM ensemble guidance
gives over an 80% chance of both overnight lows below 36F and
winds under 3 mph mainly east of the Mississippi River. Have
issued a Frost Advisory for this area (save for far west KY and
the far southern tip of IL) from 06-13z Saturday.

Rest of the forecast period looks rather benign, with a warming
trend in temperatures expected this weekend into Monday. A
moisture-starved cold front will pass through the region Monday
afternoon and evening, associated with surface low pressure
passing through the northern Great Lakes. This looks to initiate
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the
better chance of organized convection looks to remain east of
the region in south-central IN and central and northern KY.
Rainfall amounts should be very light, which is good news for
allowing river levels to continue falling. The NBM ensemble
gives only a 10-20% chance of locations in the region seeing
more than a tenth of an inch of rain by Tuesday morning.

Quiet and seasonably mild conditions will return Tuesday and
Wednesday as surface high pressure becomes centered across the
Mid-South. A turn to a more unsettled pattern is expected for
the second half of the week beginning Thursday. This will be
driven by another keep surface low pressure passing through the
northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front will initiate showers
and thunderstorms Thursday into next Friday, though confidence
on timing is low at this range. The progged slow progression of
the front may allow for more robust rainfall amounts, but still
below a level of concern that would result in new flooding
issues. The NBM ensemble gives a 40-60% of the region seeing
more than a quarter inch of rain during this period, but only a
10-30% of seeing more than half of inch of rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Lower VFR ceilings will push south of the TAF sites this
evening, as north winds diminish. With clear and calm conditions
expected overnight and in the morning, fog would seem like a
strong possibility, but guidance is not going there, yet. It
would seem most likely at KCGI and KMVN, and based on general
tendencies in these situations, decided to mention MVFR fog at
KMVN. Winds will be light through the day and a few cumulus will
be possible in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-
     080>091-094.
MO...None.
IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ to 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/
     Saturday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KYZ007-
     010>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS