Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

885
FXUS63 KIWX 251021
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
521 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
- The daytime hours will be dry today with highs in the 40s.

- A few hours of freezing rain are likely Friday morning near
  the Indiana-Ohio-Michigan state lines. Total ice accumulations
  will be between a few hundredths to up to a tenth of an inch.

- Windy, sharply colder, and rain/snow chances return on Sunday
  and Monday.

- Near normal temps in the 20s and 30s next week with several lake
  effect snow chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Merry Christmas from all of us at IWX! We hope you all have a fun,
happy, and bright holiday season!

Precipitation has been tapering off over the past few hours, but a
few isolated light rain showers and drizzle are still ongoing north
of US 30. A stationary front is currently draped across
north/central Indiana along the US 24 corridor. In the vicinity of
the front, patchy dense fog has been observed with visibilities
between 0.5-2 miles. If fog continues to develop into our CWA (which
would be mainly along and south of US 24), visibilities may be
reduced as low as 1/4 mile at times. Fog dissipates around sunrise.
High pressure centered over Ontario will keep temperatures cool for
Christmas but still warmer than average. Christmas Day highs will be
in the low 40s in southern Lower Michigan to the upper 40s south of
US 24.

Tonight, winds shift to become southeast/east as a warm front
approaches from the mid Mississippi River valley. Ahead of the
front, rain and even periods of freezing rain will be possible late
tonight into Friday morning. The best chances for freezing rain will
be near the Indiana-Ohio-Michigan state lines between 4 AM to 10 AM
EST Friday morning. Model guidance continues to have temperatures be
near to just slightly below freezing on Friday morning. With breezy
southeast/east winds and a stout warm nose aloft on soundings, this
appears to be a decent setup for freezing rain. Across northern
Indiana and northwest Ohio, rain is expected to be the dominant
precip type although a glaze of ice is possible, especially on the
leading edge of precipitation early Friday morning. Branch,
Hillsdale, Steuben, Fulton, and Williams counties have the best
chances for seeing ice accumulations of a few hundredths to up to a
tenth of an inch of ice. Ice accumulations will make for slick roads
Friday morning, although it should only be for a few hours as
temperatures will steadily warm throughout the morning and early
afternoon. Plan post-Christmas travel accordingly for Friday
morning, especially if you are heading north into Lower Michigan.
Have held off on any winter weather advisories for now, but will let
the day shift later today make the final call.

A strengthening low pressure system looks to impact the Great Lakes
region on Sunday and into early next week. A strong cold front will
bring rain changing to lake effect snow on the latter half of
Sunday, with breezy northwest winds and much colder air to follow.
The tightening pressure gradient around the low will make for strong
winds; northwest winds late Sunday into Monday may gust as high as
40 mph. Temperatures will be sharply colder due to CAA behind the
system, with highs only in the 20s by Monday. Several chances for
lake effect snow are possible next week with temperatures near
normal in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Patchy fog/mist will continue over the next couple of hours for
both TAF sites with IFR category vsbys/cigs. KSBN will see a
quicker improvement this morning with some drier air being
entrained below the inversion near the surface. KFWA is in closer
proximity to the warm frontal boundary moisture axis and this
will prolong the fog/mist and lowered cigs through about 14z
Thu. Through the day will see some slow improvement to mainly
MVFR cigs for both TAF sites and southerly winds will trend
higher by this afternoon with gusts around 20 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Andersen