Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

902
FXUS63 KIND 150306
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1006 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers will increase across far north-northeast part of
  central Indiana this evening with snow accumulations 1-4 inches
  possible

- Gusty winds 20-30 mph overnight with wind chills dropping to
  near zero by Thursday morning.

- Light accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday, up to an inch
  or two possible.

- Additional light snow chances Saturday

- Well-below normal temperatures this weekend into early next week
  with subzero wind chills at times.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Evening snow shower expected to impact far north central to
northeastern zones is finally starting to get established over
extreme far eastern Howard County and northern Madison County as of
945P EST.  Expect band to exhibit spatial stability over at least
the next couple hours, with accumulating snowfall focused north of
Anderson...and lighter/less organized snow showers from Kokomo to
Winchester, and as far south as far-eastern counties, also leading
to very light accumulations from wind-blown snow.  Have reduced
snowfall expectations given delayed onset...down to mainly 1-2
inches for Howard County and northern portions of Tipton/Madison
Counties...and a light coating for several surrounding zones.
Snow should diminish after 06Z and taper to flurries by pre-dawn.

Stronger cold advection to continue overnight as at times robust
northwest breezes slowly decrease, with gusts around 20 mph by
daybreak...when minimum temperatures will be in the mid to upper
teens across the realm.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 313 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Sharp frontal forcing/steep lapse rates in the 2-6 km layer has
supported an organized snow band that will continue to push out of
the SE forecast area in the next hour. In the wake of this front,
strong CAA will continue across central Indiana. Gusty winds from
25-30 mph will support wind chills lowering to near zero by 06Z.
as temperatures fall into the teens to lower 20s. Relaxing
pressure gradient and decreasing BL winds will support a gradual
reduction in the wind gusts after 06Z to under 25 mph.

Snowfall totals were fairly low across the forecast area
with the aforementioned snowband this afternoon most likely due to
the warm ground prior to snowfall. Modest amount of shear in the
BL (20-30 deg), along with prevailing N-NW off of Lake Michigan
will support 1-2 primary bands of moderate to heavy snow currently
developing across northern Indiana to move into the far N-NE
parts of central Indiana by this evening. Forecast confidence is
high that the far northern part of the forecast area (Carroll and
Howard Counties) will see a the southern extent of moderate
snowfall with 2-4 inches of snow expected from the early evening
onset until diminishing trends ensue after 05Z. Surrounding these
counties, the remainder of north-NE part of central Indiana will
see between 1 and 2 inches of snow. Given the discontinuities
between current southern extent of the winter weather advisory
location in northern Indiana, have opted to not issue a winter
weather advisory for far northern counties and instead will issue
a special weather statement. Trends in radar and snow reports will
continue to be monitored for possible winter weather advisory
issuance going into the evening.

LES bands should move out of the N-NE parts of the forecast area
around sunrise tomorrow as BL flow veers to westerly as surface high
pressure ridge axis builds towards the region from the MS valley. As
upper ridging nudges into the region, drier BL blow out of the west
will support skies to gradually become partly cloudy from W-E
through the day. Wind chills to start the morning will range from -5
to 5 deg F as winds continue to gust to near 20 mph thanks to
persistent modest pressure gradient. Winds will continue to
gradually subside through the day as the ridge axis moves into the
central Indiana during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 313 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

The long term will be colder than normal with wind chills as cold as
around 10 below zero at times for parts of the area. Upper ridging
along portions of western North America will lead to large upper
troughing across the eastern USA including central Indiana.

An initial upper system will impact the area on Thursday into
Friday. Isentropic lift associated with warm advection will bring
snow to the area Thursday night into Friday morning, with the
potential for 1 to 2 inches of snow if forcing is strong enough.
This could impact the Friday morning rush hour.

The warm advection will then boost temperatures into the middle 30s
to lower 40s Friday afternoon. Another upper system will deepen the
upper trough Friday night into Saturday. This plus a shot of colder
air will bring more chances for snow. Some uncertainty remains in
the timing of the best forcing for snow, but at the moment it looks
to be overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. Some additional
light accumulations will be possible.

Temperatures may climb a few degrees in the 20s on Saturday. By
Sunday morning, temperatures will be in the single digits above zero
at most areas. With the expected winds, wind chills will approach 10
below zero in portions of the area.

Additional upper waves will move through the upper trough through
the remainder of the long term period. These will bring reinforcing
shots of cold air to central Indiana. Highs will be in the teens and
20s with lows in the single digits to middle teens through Tuesday.

The upper waves will have little moisture to work with, but wouldn`t
be surprised to see flurries or light snow at times. However,
confidence is not high enough to include any PoPs at this time.

Guidance is trying to move the colder air out on Wednesday with
temperatures closer to (but still below) normal, but confidence
remains low to medium on this occurring.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Impacts:

- Low-VFR conditions this evening at KIND/KLAF may include brief
  MVFR VIS/CIG in/near isolated -SHSN

- Northwest wind gusts around 20-25KT through 06Z...with winds
  overall slowly diminishing into Thursday morning

Discussion:

Low-VFR ceilings are expected through most of tonight over
KIND/KLAF, with rising VFR ceilings over KHUF/KBMG liking scattering
out at KHUF by 06Z.  Amplified upper trough residing over Great
Lakes and Midwest tonight...will include fetch of Stratocumulus and -
SHSN off of Lake Michigan and to the south-southeast across IN. This
feature should stay east of all central Indiana terminals...although
brief MVFR conditions are possible at KIND/KLAF into the overnight.

Stacked ridging arrives from west-to-east Thursday morning, with
lingering stratus over KIND/KLAF lifting through VFR...and decks
scattering out during the afternoon.

Robust northwest flow sustained around 10-17KT and gusting around
25KT through much of this evening will slowly diminish during the
overnight.  Departure of the strong upper trough on Thursday will
reduce gusts under 20KT through the morning...with flow backing to
noticeably lighter westerly breezes by the end of the period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...AGM