Carmel, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

748
FXUS63 KIND 302018
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
418 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms south diminishing this afternoon

- Additional thunderstorms possible tonight. Strong winds to 50mph
  will be possible within these storms.

- Drier and warmer weather returns early next week

- Daily storm chances increase for the second half of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 418 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Rest of This Afternoon...

Lingering forcing from an upper low along with drier air moving into
central Indiana will continue to keep scattered convection across
the southern forecast area into mid afternoon, then coverage will
diminish. Could get some gusty winds and small hail with these given
the instability, but lack of shear should prevent anything organized.

Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies can be expected.

Tonight...

An upper wave will move into the area this evening, accompanied by a
mid level jet and increasing winds at 850mb. Cooler air moving in
aloft will increase the lapse rates. Forcing from the system will
interact with the available instability and produce some scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

The convection looks to mainly impact the northeastern half of
central Indiana, so will go high chance to low likely PoPs there.
Elsewhere will have lower PoPs. There looks to be enough instability
and shear north for some strong storms with 50 mph winds and some
hail. An isolated severe storm can`t be ruled out, but the bulk of
any severe should stay north of central Indiana.

Convection will diminish overnight with loss of heating.

Short range models continue to show some near surface smoke making
into the area overnight. The smoke is from wildfires in Canada. Rain
may get rid of some this, but some may still make it. Since smoke
has already been mentioned in the forecast, will keep a patchy
mention in tonight.

Lows will be in the 50s.

Saturday...

The cold front will slowly move southwest through the remainder of
the area Saturday. Some instability will build in the far southwest,
and this may be enough for an isolated shower or storm there. While
cannot rule out a brief shower earlier in the day farther northeast,
odds are too low to mention at this time.

Will have to watch for some wildfire smoke getting into the area,
but confidence isn`t high enough yet to include at this time.

Cooler air behind the front will keep highs around 70 northeast,
while far southwest areas may approach 80 for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 418 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Sunday...

High pressure will provide quiet weather for Sunday. Temperatures
will remain below normal but still in the 70s.

Monday into Tuesday...

An upper ridge will build across central Indiana, bringing in above
normal temperatures. Dewpoints will increase by Tuesday thanks to
southwesterly flow around high pressure to the east of the area.
These will bring a summer like feel. Any heat concerns for Tuesday
should be confined to those individuals who are more susceptible to
the heat.

Wednesday into Friday...

The upper ridge will get pushed east for the middle and latter parts
of next week as a broad upper trough develops. This will allow a
cold front to move into the area, bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Upper flow may set up more parallel to the surface front, which
would cause it to move slowly or even stall nearby, which would keep
the rain chances higher for a longer period of time. Given the
expected instability, some strong storms would be possible at some
point.

More clouds and the rain around will bring down temperatures some,
mainly Thursday and Friday when highs return to the 70s. Highs in
the mid to potentially upper 80s on Wednesday could extend the heat
concern for more susceptible persons into that day.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

Impacts:

- Convection early south then scattered convection this evening
  northern sites
- Northwest wind gusts peaking at 20 to 25kt this afternoon

Discussion:

Convection may still impact KBMG early in the period with a shower
still possible at KIND early. Otherwise, more scattered convection
will develop this evening, impacting mainly KIND/KLAF. Will use
PROB30 to cover this.

Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected. MVFR and worse
are possible in convection.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon. Winds will back a bit this
evening then return to northwest.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50