Bloomington, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

171
FXUS63 KIND 070458
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1158 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread minor/moderate flooding south of I-70

- Another round of rain and thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday
  with an additional one quarter to three quarters of an inch
  possible

- A few strong to severe storms possible late tonight and Saturday

- Well above normal temperatures into next week

- Additional rain likely next week, primarily Tuesday into
  Wednesday, which may prolong the flooding situation

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

No significant updates needed to the forecast this evening. Cut PoPs
back to below 10 percent through about 09z before allowing them to
ramp up substantially. Latest trends within CAM guidance have been
fairly consistent showing a line of storms arriving from the west
around that time. They differ in how quickly the line progresses
eastward, however. As for severe potential, the shear profile and
cold frontal forcing all point towards a sustained line of storms
(shear vectors roughly parallel to the boundary). However, the low-
level thermal profile appears to be less than ideal for severe
weather (boundary layer stability). However, the low-level kinematic
profile is very impressive with a 50kt low-level jet. It wouldn`t
take much effort to mix this momentum to the surface even with a
shallow inversion. As such, our primary hazard will be severe wind
gusts. Additionally, flooding is possible since the ground is
already very saturated.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Record warmth continues across central Indiana this afternoon, with
Indy having already broke the record high for the date. Developing
clouds will help keep a lid on temperatures from getting too much
higher across much of the area.

With dewpoints in the lower 60s, some instability has developed
across the area. However, some weak inhibition remains. Can`t rule
out some isolated showers or storms popping up this afternoon, but
odds are low given lack of forcing. Will keep some slight chance
PoPs going.

The continued lack of forcing should keep the evening quiet, but
again an isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out. Feel odds are
low enough though to go dry this evening.

Weakening convection from the west, ahead of an approaching cold
front, will move in late tonight and will continue to push east
across central Indiana Saturday morning. There will be plentiful
moisture to work with, and some forcing will continue through the
period. Another line of convection may develop in the afternoon
with the continued forcing with the cold front.

Will go with high PoPs all areas at some point late tonight through
the day Saturday. The timing of the morning convection is such that
instability will be limited, so odds of severe are low but non-zero.
Clouds will help keep instability in check later Saturday, but an
isolated strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out then either.

A few showers and isolated storms may linger in the southeast
Saturday evening, then dry conditions are expected overnight.

Rainfall amounts up to around 0.75 inches are possible, with the
higher amounts expected across the central and southern portions of
the area.

Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s to around 70, but readings
may fall some mid afternoon as colder air works in behind a cold
front. Lows tonight will be very warm and in the lower 60s. However,
a record high minimum for March 7 is not expected as readings will
cool off Saturday evening before midnight, heading to lows around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Quiet weather will return for Sunday through the daytime Monday with
upper flow becoming nearly zonal and central Indiana in between
systems. Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs returning
to near record levels in the lower 70s by Monday.

A northern stream upper trough and southern stream upper low will
work together to bring forcing to the area for Tuesday into
Wednesday. Ensembles still show strong integrated vapor transport
into the area, so locally heavy rain will remain a threat.
Unfortunately, the southern half of the forecast area looks to
receive the highest rain amounts. This could create new flooding and
prolong ongoing flooding.

Instability and shear may be enough for a low end severe threat
during this period as well, but threat will depend on details that
are not clear this far out.

Temperatures will cool behind the system but still remain near
normal to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1158 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts up to 25 to 30kt at times through the forecast period,
  with highest gusts likely Saturday afternoon

- Showers and thunderstorms arrive after 10Z, impacting the
  terminals with a stronger line of storms impacting the terminals
  near and just after daybreak

- Cold front arrives Saturday evening with a wind shift to WNW.

- MVFR ceilings possible for much of the day Saturday into Saturday
  night

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue into the predawn hours with S/SW winds
at 10-15kts. Convection across the Missouri Valley late this evening
will expand into the state prior to daybreak...impacting the
terminals after 10Z. At the leading edge will be a line of stronger
storms that will likely bring brief restrictions and perhaps gustier
winds as it passes near and just after daybreak. Behind the
storms...showers will continue through midday before moving off to
the east. MVFR ceilings will become prevalent throughout the morning
but should scatter some by the afternoon as slightly drier air
advects in behind the area of rain. Peak wind gusts to around 25kts
will develop by late morning and continue into the afternoon.

The cold front will lag back and not pass through the region until
late day Saturday with the potential for additional showers along
the boundary. Winds will veer to W/NW with the passage of the front
with post-frontal MVFR stratus settling back in as well.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Ryan