Hoffman Estates, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

663
FXUS63 KLOT 151720
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery northwesterly winds to continue through the day
  today.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Thursday and again
  Friday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be
  strong to severe, particularly on Friday.

- Another storm system may approach the region early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Through Wednesday:

A meridionally elongated region of surface high pressure will
settle into the region tonight into Wednesday, causing the
blustery northwesterly winds to rapidly diminish after sunset.
The combination of continued (though weakening) cold air
advection earlier in the night and nearly optimal radiational
cooling conditions later in the night should lead to a
relatively chilly night/Wednesday morning across the area. Low
temperatures should range from the upper 20s to mid 30s,
coldest across interior northern Illinois and "mildest" in the
heart of the Chicago metro urban heat island and along the
northwest Indiana lakeshore. Will continue to forgo any
frost/freeze headlines as vegetation across most of our forecast
area is still a bit too premature to be susceptible to damage,
though any early-planters are still encouraged to take the
necessary precautions to protect their plants or crops.

The surface ridge axis will gradually slide eastward across our
longitude on Wednesday, keeping our weather for the day fairly
mundane. While some cirrus clouds will likely make an appearance
during the afternoon, ample sunshine is otherwise expected and
should help temperatures rebound into the mid 50s to low 60s
across most of the area. Our lake-adjacent locales look to be an
exception to this, though, as the light synoptic flow with a
slight onshore flow component will permit the development of a
lake breeze. With lake temperatures still in the 40s, air
temperatures along the lakeshore may not make it to 50F as a
result.

Ogorek/Borchardt

Wednesday Night through Tuesday:

A low-amplitude ridge centered across the Great Plains
Wednesday evening will strengthen and shift ENE while deep
troughing develops across the western CONUS by Thursday night.
Dry conditions are expected Wednesday night through at least
Thursday morning amid increasing low-level southeast flow ahead
of the western trough and associated surface low. A weak mid-
level impulse rounding the departing ridge will then cross the
forecast area Thursday afternoon and evening. While there is
uncertainty as to whether a pocket of mid-level Pacific moisture
will be sufficient for convection to initiate on the leading
edge of an incoming EML, the deeper kinematic field will be
conditionally supportive of strong elevated storms with hail
Thursday afternoon and early evening.

Guidance shifts a warm front north of the Wisconsin state line
Thursday night, though climatology would suggest this may be too
quick with the front`s advance due to the cold waters of Lake
Michigan. Gradually increasing low-level moisture lifting over
the front could generate a period of convection across far
northern Illinois and especially into Wisconsin Thursday night
that may further inhibit the northward push of the warm front.

There remains a lot of spread in guidance with the timing and
track of the resultant surface low along the front on Friday.
However, after what looks to be a warm and windy day across most
of the area, there is a strong to locally severe thunderstorm
threat along an incoming cold front late Friday afternoon and
evening conditional on sufficient dynamically cooling to erode
the EML. Still plenty of questions that need to be resolved over
the next several days, especially given a less-favorable
disjointed placement of the parent trough well to the southwest,
so will continue to steer away from the fine details at this
time.

The cold front is progged to stall roughly along the Ohio River
this weekend, which would favor a cooler period with some
chances of rain toward central Illinois. The southwest trough is
then forecast to quickly eject and becoming negatively tilted
across the central Great Plains on Sunday. A new, stronger
surface low will shift near or west of the area Sunday night and
Monday, bringing a period of rain and possibly some
thunderstorms.

Kluber/Borchardt

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Main Items of Note:

- Gusty northwest winds this afternoon
- Lake breeze wind shift to easterly on Wednesday

Northwest winds (290-320 deg direction) generally gust to 25-35
kt until shortly after sunset (strongest between ~22z-00z).
High pressure building overhead tonight will result in quickly
diminishing northwest to north winds (calm to VRB at times).
Wind directions may be a bit erratic at ORD and MDW Wednesday
morning, but speeds are expected to be solidly under 10 kt. A
lake breeze will move across the near lake terminals in the
early afternoon, shifting winds to easterly with speeds
approaching 10 kt. VFR conditions will prevail through the
current TAF period.

Castro

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the IL
     and IN nearshore waters.

&&

$$

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