Elmhurst, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS63 KLOT 150005
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
605 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Porter County
  for lake effect snow showers and blowing snow through early
  Thursday morning, with localized accumulations of 2-6 inches
  expected, highest over northeast Porter County.

- Accumulating snow is expected Thursday night, likely resulting
  in hazardous conditions.

- Thursday night system will be just one of many clipper-like
  systems riding the northwest flow across the region bring
  occasional chances for snow, each followed by very cold and
  windy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Through Thursday:

Ongoing scattered snow showers across much of northern Illinois
and northwest Indiana will end from northwest to southeast late
this afternoon through early evening as the main mid-level
trough axis crosses the area. Diurnal enhancement of the showers
has allowed for some bursts of snow with visibility under a
half mile and brief accumulations of a couple tenths. However,
these stronger showers are a bit more isolated and will begin
waning with the loss of daytime heating over the next couple
hours.

Lake effect snow will then take hold over southern Lake
Michigan tonight through Thursday morning as inversion heights
rise and the entire DGZ settle through the middle of the
convective cloud depth. While LES is possible at any time
through Thursday morning, there area two periods of focus when
coverage and intensity are expected to be higher.

1) Very late this afternoon into mid-evening behind the passing
trough, continued CAA throughout a gradually deeper layer will
steepen low-level lapse rates and raise inversion heights as
high as 8kft. Expectations are for a notable uptick in snow
showers east of I-65 and especially over much of Porter County,
with the potential for snowfall rates locally up to 1"/hr if any
LES band remains anchored at a given location for an extended
period.

A more dominant LES band should then settle east of Porter
County for several hours late this evening into the overnight
hours, with the potential for a weaker "satellite" band to the
west developing along off the Illinois shore and into northeast
Lake and northern Porter County. Any lake breeze component off
northeast Illinois will provide added convergence for the weaker
western band.

2) With a secondary, weaker wave currently just north of Lake
Superior expected to track southward along Lake Michigan
tonight, low-level flow may ever-so-slightly veer, particularly
in the upper-half of the convective column, such that the
dominant band either brushes the Porter/LaPorte line or even
edges westward into eastern Porter late tonight through daybreak
Thursday. Confidence is low that the band will substantially
affect Porter County, but high enough that PoPs and QPF have
been nudged upward during this period.

LES will diminish mid to late morning as inversion heights to
lower, then end by early afternoon as low-level begins veering
SW. Overall, expect snowfall totals ranging from 1 to 3 inches
over far northeast Lake County to 3 to 6 inches over far eastern
Porter County. On top of the snow, strong N/NNW winds will gust
to 50 mph along the Lake Michigan shore and 40 mph inland,
particularly this evening. Because of this, the combination of
falling and blowing snow will result in brief periods of
whiteout conditions. Opted to maintain a Winter Weather Advisory
for Porter County, though a quick upgrade to a Winter Storm
Warning remains possible if trends support the main band
shifting back into the area late tonight. In this scenario,
localized blizzard conditions would be possible.

Kluber


Thursday Night through Wednesday:

Active northwest flow pattern is expected through the first part
of next week with several, potentially vigorous clipper-like
systems likely to move across the region. Each clipper will
likely lead to windy conditions, some snow or snow shower
chances, and each followed significant shots of cold air.

First system is progged to drop southeast into the Midwest
Thursday night. Low and mid level flow will back in advance of
this wave resulting in strong isentropic ascent, most evident on
the 285-295K surfaces, where the strongest pressure advection
is noted. The combination of the isentropic ascent and DCVA in
advance of the shortwave trough should lead in a nice thumping
of snow across the region. It looks to be rather quick hitting,
with 1-3" of snow possible with this system.

Temperatures should remain generally steady Thursday night,
before warm front moves across the area early Friday morning
bring an end to the snow and setting us up for a relatively mild
day Friday. Our area will be in the system`s warm sector Friday
probably allowing high temperatures to climb above freezing,
possibly for the last time for a while. Our time in the warm
sector will be short lived as Arctic front will move across the
area Friday night ushering in a much colder air mass.

Differences begin to creep up between the operational GFS and
ECMWF over the weekend regarding timing of the next couple of
clippers, including one over the weekend. Generally the theme of
unsettled conditions with occasional chances of snow or snow
showers, gusty winds, and some temperatures swings from
seasonably cold to much below average are likely. There is some
ensemble support for a dump of bitterly cold air making it into
the area in the wake of these clippers early next week, but
details in the timing and just how cold temps get will still
need to be fine tuned. In the meantime, no changes were made to
NBM output for the weekend and early next week.

- Izzi

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Key Messages:

- MVFR ceilings may persist at GYY through this evening.

- Gusty northwest winds will continue tonight before diminishing.

- Another period of snow is expected tomorrow night.


The earlier snow has ended at all of our TAF sites except for
GYY. There, lake effect snow showers may graze the airfield from
time to time this evening before ending, leaving one dominant
lake effect snow band that should remain east of GYY through
tomorrow morning. MVFR ceilings are also likely to be observed
tonight at GYY, which looks to be positioned right along the
western periphery of the lake effect stratocumulus shield.

GYY will also see the strongest northwesterly winds tonight,
with gusts in excess of 30 kts remaining possible there through
this evening. Elsewhere, expect at least occasional northwesterly
gusts to around 25 kts tonight before winds gradually diminish
through tomorrow morning and eventually flip to a southwesterly
direction tomorrow afternoon.

Our next weather system will begin to move into the area
tomorrow night, with snow expected to begin sometime during the
early-mid evening. Tomorrow night`s steadiest snow showers will
likely produce sub-VFR visibilities. However, there are still
some uncertainties regarding the timing and duration of those
steadier snow showers, and it`s also possible that they will
hold off until just beyond the end time of the current ORD and
MDW TAFs. Have held off on advertising any more aggressive
visibility reductions in the ORD and MDW TAFs at this time as a
result, and will let that be addressed in greater detail in
forthcoming TAF issuances.

Ogorek

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for INZ002.

LM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for Winthrop Harbor IL
     to Gary IN.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Thursday for Gary to Burns Harbor
     IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN.

&&

$$

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