Champaign, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS63 KILX 141811
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
111 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cool weather will prevail through the start of the new week.

- Storm chances return midweek with strong to severe storms
  possible Tuesday afternoon. A more significant threat for
  severe is expected on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Surface observations show a cold front stretched from the eastern
Great Lakes Region southwestward toward the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Scattered showers and storms are ongoing along and behind
the front from central Indiana into southern Illinois, but have
since exited the forecast area as of early this afternoon.
Surface ridging approaching from the west will continue to push
this activity further east, parting way to drier and cooler
weather the remainder of today.

Surface high pressure will slide through the area on Monday, keeping
things cooler to start the new week. Winds flip around to the
south Monday night/Tuesday, allowing moisture to advect back
northward ahead of an approaching cold front. An upper shortwave
trough will swing through the Midwest states by midday Tuesday,
pushing the cold front through parts of central Illinois and
sparking the development of scattered storms. Although dewpoints
in the upper 50s will limit instability, increasing mid-level
flow will lead to sufficient shear for storm organization.
Forecast soundings favor low-topped convection with short yet
chubby CAPE and a low-level inverted-V profiles, suggesting the
potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail in any stronger
storms. The threat for tornadoes appears low due to
unidirectional low- level shear.

The threat for significant severe weather appears likely on
Wednesday as a shortwave trough tracks through the Great Lakes
Region. The previously mentioned cold front will push just south of
the area Tuesday night as a surface low rapidly deepens over the
Northern Plains states. The front will subsequently get lifted back
northward as a warm front as the surface low/cold front approach
from the west. Dewpoints in the 60s will pool near and south of the
warm front, allowing strong instability to build (2000+ J/kg) by
afternoon. A robust ~70 kt mid-level jet will nose into the Middle
Mississippi Valley later on Wednesday with the LLJ nearing 50 kts by
Wednesday evening. Forecast hodographs show long cyclonically curved
profiles, supportive of supercell thunderstorms capable of all
hazards at the onset, as shown in the 14.12Z RRFS. Fast storm
motions should favor activity congealing into a line rather quickly,
with threats transitioning to straight line damaging winds and
embedded tornadoes. Heavy rain/localized flooding is also a threat
with 2+ inch PWATs and warm rain processes supporting high rainfall
rates. There is a 30%/enhanced risk in place for much of the area on
Wednesday, though placement of the highest threats will continue to
be refined in the coming days as surface low/frontal boundary
placements become clearer.

Cool and dry weather returns under surface ridging for late week.
Temperatures steadily climb back to near normal by next weekend as
mid-level heights rise in response to a building ridge over the
south-central US. Precipitation chances look to increase by next
weekend as a series of shortwaves slide through the Midwest
states.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Breezy northwest winds behind a cold front will continue through
early evening before becoming light and variable overnight ahead of
an approaching surface high. Aside from diurnal cumulus this
afternoon or a passing cirrus Monday, VFR conditions are
expected through Monday.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...NMA