Shelley, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

250
FXUS65 KPIH 220924
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
224 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Night.
We`ve got more low stratus and fog out there early this morning,
though the bulk of it is just a bit farther north than what we saw
yesterday morning, out across the Arco desert/Mud Lake area, upper
Snake River Plain, and part of the Teton Valley. In these areas,
visibility has dropped down to below a half mile at times. There`s
another pocket of dense fog down around the Bear Lake area. With the
increasing cloud cover across Eastern Idaho today, it would not be
surprising to get some flurries due to seeder-feeder set up. Highs
today will approach 40 degrees throughout the eastern Magic Valley
and lower Snake River Plain while remaining in the 30s elsewhere. It
is tonight that we see our next shortwave moving into our area
bringing increasing precipitation chances throughout Sunday.
Temperatures for many will warm to above freezing on Sunday, meaning
more rain than snow. Winds will increase on Sunday with gusts of
25 to 35 mph in the afternoon and continuing into Monday. The
most impactful snow on Sunday will generally be limited to the
Galena Summit area where snow totals will range from 5-8 inches.
The latest NBM shows about a 50 percent chance for 6 inches of
snow up on Galena Summit by Monday morning and about a 20 to 30
percent chance for 8 inches of snow. Our other mountain passes
will see about 1-3 inches of snow and anyone below pass level will
more likely see up to an inch of snow. This is just the first of
a couple of shortwaves moving through over the next few days and
total QPF amounts can be found below...
AMM

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.
While the bulk of the moisture with the front end of this storm
will be heavy in the mountains, we are still expecting light to
moderate precipitation into Monday. There really isn`t much of a
break before the 2nd round hits Monday night into Tuesday. This
will be a warm system, meaning we will see rain on snow at lower
and mid slope elevations...along with snowmelt with multiple areas
ABOVE freezing even at night. We are looking at widespread 40s
and 50s in the valleys Monday, with the Magic Valley and South
Hills flirting with 60! The latest trends are really increasing
precipitation, almost too much based on the type of storm we are
forecasting. We will nudge that direction though, with the caveat
we will likely see more fluctuations in amounts/totals in the next
24 hours or so. Looking at just the amount of water in the snow,
Island Park and Big Holes are holding in the 0.40-1.0"
range...jumping to over 1.5" in the Tetons. For the Sawtooths and
surrounding ranges, 0.50-1.5" are common amounts with some higher
peaks and ridgelines topping out around 2.0". There is a 5% chance
or less of exceeding 2.0". The rest of the mountains are looking
at 0.50" or less, and most valleys at 0.25" or less. The rest of
next week remains on the warm side in the afternoon, with valley
temperatures in the 40s and 50s. However, overnight lows drop so
the potential for a longer period of snowmelt and runoff will be
lower. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday.
We will see some stratus and fog impacting IDA and DIJ through
much of the morning. Otherwise, look for VFR weather through this
evening. We will see rain and snow spreading quickly after
midnight and Sunday morning. The latest trends are trying to hold
off any MVFR to LIFR conditions until after sunset at all sites,
but that may need to be modified in later forecasts. Keyes


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With temperatures expected to climb through the weekend and early
next week, minor flooding of small streams and sheet flooding
could develop across low elevation locations. Ponding of water and
minor flooding is most likely to occur from melting snow at low
elevations in the South Hills, eastern Magic Valley, and lower
Snake River Plain, generally below 6000 feet and in areas with
existing snow, particularly in areas around Albion, Burley, Malta,
and Rupert. Hazards could include elevated flows in small stream
channels and drainages, and ponding in flat areas and upstream of
plugged culverts or road berms. As a result, a Hydrological
Outlook has been issued for the eastern Magic Valley and lower
Snake River Plain south to the Idaho/Utah border where warming
temperatures and melting snow may lead to minor flooding impacts.
Localized lowland flooding may also occur outside of this area but
this product was focused on where temperatures will be warmest.
We will continue to evaluate over the coming days regarding any
changes to this product. Dallon/MacKay


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$