Shelley, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

429
FXUS65 KPIH 112015
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
215 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/mountain snow showers remain possible this afternoon through
Saturday. An isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question.

- Very windy Saturday through the Snake River Plain and at higher
elevations, with gust potential exceeding 50 mph. Blowing dust
possible.

- High pressure returns early next week with dry warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Deep trough in Eastern Pacific progressing toward coast, with
vigorous leading shortwave shifting inland through the PacNW per
water vapor satellite imagery. Very warm temperatures and
breezy winds in place across much of East Idaho today. Best
convective potential remains across the Central Mountains and
along the Divide/Yellowstone regions. High-res models struggling
with placement and timing of the showers, but nearly all of
them keep QPF amounts very light. As in the last system that
moved through, surface dewpoint depressions are quite steep, so
expect mostly virga until the lower levels can cool/moisten up
overnight behind the front. Still a general lack of instability,
but can`t completely rule out a thunderstorm or two if a
stronger shower can manifest. Saturday still looking quite windy
especially across the Snake Plain, with tight pressure gradient
in place along with gusty 700mb flow. Latest NAM has shifted
stronger winds to the south end of the Snake Plain, but high-res
runs still support stronger winds across the north end of the
Snake Plain. Blended NBM with previous forecast and 75th
percentile, especially in light of gustier winds occurring
today. Also kept the BLDU mention across most of the Snake Plain
for the afternoon. Have issued a Wind Advisory for the entirety
of the Snake Plain. Do not believe a High Wind Warning will be
necessary, as the probability of gusts greater than 45 mph
begins to drop off significantly. Showers continue mainly
Central Mountains, Divide, and along the Wyoming border. Again,
instability is lacking but can`t rule out a thunderstorms this
time of year. Temperatures drop off behind the front, with
temperatures Saturday some 10-15 degrees cooler than today and
widespread temperatures near or below freezing for lower
elevations Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

We move into early next week on the dry side, with another
warmup headed our direction. We still can`t rule out a shower or
2 around Island Park Sunday, but trends are drier each time we
run the forecast. BY Tuesday, even with the potential for some
clouds arriving, we will be back into the 60s and 70s. We will
see the next storm splitting as it crosses the western states,
forming a closed low to our southwest. That leaves us with
slightly cooler and breezy midweek. A few showers are still
possible but the chance isn`t high and the amount of
precipitation is basically negligible at the moment. We are
expecting high pressure to build ahead of that closed low, which
could impact us NEXT weekend. This will push highs well into
the 70s next Friday. This pattern is strongly supported by about
65% of the clusters. Around 25% shows the ridge but much
weaker, and the 4th scenario has a slow moving split storm
across our area (around 10% of the clusters). The Blend of
Models is going with the warmer/drier pattern for today.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Scattered to broken mid and high level clouds will continue to
increase, although at the moment we are struggling with higher
resolutions models actually producing showers vs the current
virga situation out there. We will see some gusty winds out
there at times around 20 kts, especially for BYI, PIH and IDA.
The chance of actual showers will increase tonight and Saturday.
SUN and DIJ currently have VCSH closer to sunrise, so we left
that in place but opted to NOT add it to PIH, IDA, and BYI. That
may need to occur later though. The story Saturday will be much
stronger winds. Gusts at BYI, PIH and IDA by afternoon will be
30-40kts. For SUN, it looks like we WILL NOT see the usual
southerly wind switch and keep winds in the afternoon breezy and
out of a westerly direction. At DIJ, showers and a few
thunderstorms are possible will persist into the
afternoon...with gusts outside of showers/storms at 25-30kts.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes