Rexburg, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

808
FXUS65 KPIH 072003
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy Today With Isolated Storms North and East

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today Due to Wind & Humidity

- Much Cooler Temperatures Tomorrow

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

As an area of low pressure moves eastward through eastern Washington
state, northern Idaho, and Montana an associated cold front will
swing through Eastern Idaho later this evening/tonight. This will
bring a few isolated showers and storms to the area this evening,
though coverage will be limited to areas in the Central Mountains,
upper Snake River Plain, and northern Eastern Highlands and many of
us will stay dry. So far, storms are popping up in northeastern
Custer county into Lemhi county and moving northeast. Any of these
storms that kick off in our area look fairly benign today, or your
"garden variety" type summer thunderstorm. What more of us will
notice is the gusty winds through the afternoon and evening. Gusts
will range from 25 to 35 mph for many with gusts closer to 40 or
even pushing 45 mph out across the Arco Desert and upper Snake River
Plain. This is the area where the Red Flag Warning is in effect
today, so will not be issuing a WIND ADVISORY for the same area.
However, be aware that the NBM is showing about a 30 to 50 percent
chance of gusts greater than 45 mph from Carey to Arco to Dubois and
eastward to Ashton. Winds will diminish a bit overnight, though we
will still see some gusts of 20 to 25 mph tonight and through
Friday. While this cold front won`t bring much precipitation, it
will at least bring some relief from the heat. Highs today will be
in the mid to upper 80s in our valley locations and we will be about
5 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday, meaning highs for many in the mid
to upper 70s and a few low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the weekend, our forecast is looking warm and dry. We remain in
north/northwesterly flow aloft through Sunday and temperatures will
begin to slowly warm again. Highs on Saturday will be in upper 70s
and low 80s with more of us returning to the mid and upper 80s on
Sunday. The warming trend continues next week with highs returning
to the 90s for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as we return to more
zonal flow aloft by the middle of next week. Winds don`t look
particularly breezy through the weekend or Monday with gusts closer
to 20 mph for most, but they will pick up a bit for Tuesday and
Wednesday as gusts approach the 25 to 35 mph range.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Biggest impact today will be breezy winds gusting to around 20 to 30
kts at all sites this afternoon, but overall VFR conditions are
expected through this TAF period. The stronger winds today will
be at IDA, DIJ, and PIH. As a cold front makes its way through
the area this evening/tonight, there is about a 20 to 30 percent
chance of an isolated shower or storm near DIJ at the cold
front moves through, so will continue with the PROB30 there.
There is about a 10 percent chance near IDA, so will leave out
PROB30 there for now, but it will be something to watch this
evening. Winds will diminish a bit overnight, but 20 kt gusts
will continue tonight with 20 to 25 kt gusts expected Friday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Red Flag conditions are developing as expected across portions of
the forecast area this afternoon, with RH values definitely running
higher than yesterday yet stronger winds making up for the bump in
those values as far as supporting overall fire risk. No changes are
needed to the zone configuration currently warned (410, 413, 427).
Thunderstorm coverage continues to look isolated into Zones 475,
476, and 411 this afternoon as well as more widespread activity
remains further north. The low pressure system responsible for the
increased winds and isolated thunderstorms departs Friday, with
cooler temperatures and decreasing winds Friday into the weekend
under northwest flow before we start trending warmer and a bit
breezier again early next week (especially starting Tuesday). Prior
to that, near-critical fire weather conditions for winds/RH are
possible Friday across portions of Zones 425/427 as the current
system pulls away, but overall coverage appears too limited at this
juncture for another Red Flag Warning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for IDZ427.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...01