Post Falls, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

190
FXUS66 KOTX 202251
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
351 PM PDT Tue May 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 25% chance for afternoon thunderstorms through Tuesday
  evening in the northern mountains.

- Patchy frost for colder pockets in northern mountain valleys
  Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Chance of rain showers increased for Thursday

- Mild with showers and isolated thunderstorms start to the
  holiday weekend followed by warm and dry conditions into
  Memorial Day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue over the northern mountains and Idaho
Panhandle through Wednesday, along with a chance of
thunderstorms through Tuesday evening. Patchy frost is expected in
colder pockets of the northern mountain valleys for Wednesday
morning. Then temperatures see a gradual warming trend into the
holiday weekend. Thursday through Saturday remains unsettled
with showers at times. Drier and warmer Sunday into Memorial Day
with temperatures warming into the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday morning: As the low pressure system currently
sitting over top of the forecast area slowly weakens and moves out
of the area, rain showers will continue. These showers will mostly
be confined to the mountain areas due to orographic lift. Rain
totals will overall be less than 0.1 inches except for localized
areas within the mountains. Winds through the afternoon will
continue to be breezy across most of the area, with gusts 25-30 mph
anticipated. Lift provided by the low will contribute to a general
chance (25 percent) for thunderstorms throughout far
northeastern Washington and the northern Idaho Panhandle.
Strongest thunderstorms are anticipated through around 8pm this
evening. Clearing tonight will allow temperatures to be chilly,
with some frost chances. In particular, the NBM shows
percentages of seeing 36 degrees or below over 60 percent for
northeastern locations such as Republic and Colville. As such, a
Frost Advisory has been issued for the Northern Mountains and
Okanogan Highlands from 2-7am tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, both
high and low temperatures are expected to increase to closer to
normal, so frost should no longer be a risk. /AS

Thursday through Tuesday: A mid level short wave tracks into the
region on Thursday bringing another round of showers to the
region. The ensembles are currently struggling with the coverage
of precipitation, with the GEFS the wettest with amounts of
0.10-0.20" across much of Eastern WA/N Idaho, while the Canadian
ensemble is the driest with amounts less than 0.10" over SE
Washington into the south ID Panhandle. The EC Ensemble is a
compromoise between the wet GEFS and drier Canadian. Given the
high PWAT`s near 125% of normal, and the short wave coming
through during peak heating, the forecast is leaning towards a
compromise of the GFS/EC Ensemble solutions. Thus POP`s were
raised above the NBM. This short wave moves out Thursday Night
bringing about a warming and drying trend through the Memorial
Day weekend. Some residual showers are expected Friday and
Saturday in the mountains but will be isolated/scattered in
nature. The next trough sets up off the coast placing the Inland
NW in a milder southerly flow. This will allow high temperatures
to warm into the 70s and 80s by Sunday and Monday. Then the
offshore trough begins to push the ridge east late Monday into
Tuesday. The details become more uncertain this far out, with
POP`s nudging upward and temperatures down heading into Tuesday.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers over NE Washington into the ID Panhandle are
expected to remain mainly north of KGEG/KSFF, clipping KCOE
through 02-03z before decreasing with the loss of daytime
heating. A few thunderstorms will remain possible this evening
over the northern mountains as well. A drier boundary layer
today compared to yesterday with relative humidity down 15-40%
compared to 24 hours ago is expected to result in minimal
chances for fog or stratus impacting the eastern TAF sites.
VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through 00z
Thursday. Winds will also be on the decrease tonight as pressure
gradients weaken and the lower atmosphere stabilizes.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through the TAF period. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        38  63  43  60  43  67 /  10  10   0  50  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  37  62  41  60  41  68 /  20  10   0  60  20  20
Pullman        37  60  43  56  40  65 /  10   0  10  60  20  10
Lewiston       44  68  50  64  47  73 /  10   0  10  60  20  10
Colville       32  62  36  64  37  67 /  50  50  10  30  10  20
Sandpoint      39  61  40  61  43  68 /  30  40   0  50  20  20
Kellogg        39  58  43  57  43  65 /  20  30  10  70  30  20
Moses Lake     39  68  47  71  44  75 /   0   0  10  20   0  10
Wenatchee      42  68  50  71  47  72 /   0   0   0  20  10  10
Omak           39  68  42  71  43  73 /  10  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM PDT Wednesday for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
ID...None.

&&

$$