Buhl, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

458
FXUS65 KBOI 231710
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1010 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough remains off the Pacific NW
coast this morning, with a cold front situated across central
OR. A short wave over southwest OR will move across the area
today and bring a cold front. The front will move southeast
this afternoon and be the focus of rain, snow and graupel
showers this afternoon and evening. A slight chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon along the front. Some stronger
showers may produce gusty winds up to 40 mph this afternoon.
Wrap around moisture with the shortwave will keep snow showers
going over the central ID mountains into Sunday morning. Sunday
and Monday will generally be dry with patchy fog in the
morning. Current forecast on track with no updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR outside of precipitation. However, areas of
rain/snow will cause MVFR/IFR this morning. Isolated showers this
afternoon and evening, with a slight chance of thunderstorms between
21Z and 04Z. Patchy valley fog/stratus Sunday morning. Mountains
obscured in low clouds/precipitation. Snow levels 6500 feet this
morning, then 3000 feet MSL by Sun/16Z. Surface winds: SW 5-15 kt
with gusts to 30 kt in SE OR and far SW ID, becoming variable this
evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 20-30 kt.

.KBOI...VFR with broken low-mid clouds. This afternoon and evening
isolated rain showers with a 15% chance of thunder. Environment will
support thunder, but an unorganized precip mode makes exact timing
difficult. Surface winds SE 5-10 kt, switching to NW early around
noon.

SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR to MVFR in lingering mountain precipitation
with low clouds/patchy fog in valley locations and MVFR to IFR over
higher terrain with mountains obscured. Precipitation dissipating by
early afternoon. Surface winds will gradually shift to W-NW at 5-15
kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...A wide swatch of
light to moderate precipitation extends across SE Oregon and
into far SW Idaho (west of Boise) early this morning. Rainfall
rates of 0.10-0.20 inches per hour have been reported at the
Baker, Ontario, and McCall airports. The dynamics associated
with the large upper trough to the west have enhanced the
rainfall rates within this band. Snow levels near 6500 feet will
steadily lower to around 5000 feet as colder air arrives with
the approaching upper trough. The band of precip shifts east of
the area by late morning, followed by showers and a slight
chance (less than 20 percent) of thunderstorms this afternoon
ahead of the trough and cold front. Liquid precip totals around
0.50 to 1 inch are expected in the mountains, with much lower
amounts in the valleys. Snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are
expected above 6000 feet with an inch or two in the mountain
valleys above 5000 feet, including McCall. Southwest winds of 15
to 25 mph with higher gusts will persist in the higher
elevations, including areas near the Nevada border.

Showers decrease in most areas tonight as the trough and cold
front move through the region, but are expected to continue in
central Idaho overnight. Additional snowfall accumulations of 1
to 3 inches are expected in central Idaho as snow levels
continue to fall overnight, lowering to around 4000 feet by
Sunday morning. Skies clear and winds diminish overnight, which
is a recipe for patchy valley fog. Dry conditions accompany a
short-wave upper ridge on Sunday, along with light winds.
Southwest flow aloft returns on Monday as the next Pacific
system approaches the PacNW coast. Moisture increases, mainly
across the north, for a 50-70 percent chance of snow across the
northern high terrain and a 20-50 percent chance of rain/snow
elsewhere. Snow levels near valley floors in the morning rise to
3500-4500 feet in the afternoon. Little or no snow
accumulations in the valleys and up to 2 inches in the mountains
are expected, although confidence is low. Temperatures trend
down to within a few degrees of normal Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...A broad cut off upper
level low will move inland on Tuesday, bringing warm frontal
precipitation initially. This first push of moisture will bring
widespread rain on Tuesday, slowly tapering off through the day.
The bulk of the precipitation will then fall to our south over
California-Nevada, however higher terrain in the West Central
Mountains/southeast Oregon will see precipitation lingering
through Wednesday evening. The best chance of precipitation will
be near the Nevada border on Wednesday, with about a 50-60%
chance of valley rain/mountain snow. Snow levels will be around
4000-5000 feet on Tuesday, then drop to about 3000-4000 feet by
Wednesday morning. Minimal accumulations of snow/rain are
anticipated for this system, with an extended period of drying
starting late Wednesday.

Models are then in good agreement that a ridge of high pressure
will build over the Northeastern Pacific late Wednesday-
Saturday, bringing dry and cool conditions for Thanksgiving Day.
Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the period,
thanks to the cooler northerly flow.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....SA