Schofield, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

272
FXHW60 PHFO 240646
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
846 PM HST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Light winds and mostly dry weather will generally prevail, but a
weak front moving over the area will bring a chance of showers
Sunday afternoon through Monday, mainly to windward portions of
Kauai and Oahu. A brief period of moderate trade winds is possible
around the middle of the week, with winds potentially diminishing by
the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

For the evening update increased the chance of precipitation over
southeast Big Island as there appears to be a gentle southeast
flow in that area ushering in a band of showers. Rest of the
forecast remains unchanged. With less high cloud cover and light
winds expect land breezes to develop overnight and push any
remaining low clouds offshore. Early morning temperatures should
also cool slightly below normal again. High clouds streaming over
the area from the W should shift S, then diminish over the next
24 to 48 hours.

Light winds and mostly dry weather will prevail this coming week,
with a couple of exceptions. A weak front moving over the islands
from the N will bring a chance of light to moderate showers from
Sunday afternoon through Monday, mainly to N and E facing slopes
and coasts of Kauai and Oahu. A relatively weak high will build
behind the front, that will bring a gentle to moderate north to
northeast trade wind flow as the front gradually dissipates
through Tuesday. A drier and more stable airmass will filter in
through the rest of the week limiting rainfall potential. The
weak background flow could still allow for land and sea breezes to
develop in sheltered areas on land.

Strengthening ENE trade winds may briefly reach moderate levels
around mid-week when the high moves to a position NE of the islands.
Although confidence is low, trade winds may diminish again by the
end of the week as a low passes N of the islands. Limited (windward)
to no (leeward) rainfall is expected after the front dissipates.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light winds will allow for the development of land breezes
overnight and sea breezes during the day through the weekend.
Dry and stable conditions will support prevailing VFR conditions
ahead of a weak front expected to move into Kauai from the
northwest Sunday evening and then gradually progress towards Oahu
as it dissipates. Light to moderate NNE winds will accompany this
front, along with the potential for a few showers, which may lead
to brief MVFR conditions.

A fading plume of moisture that pushed into windward Big Island
earlier today may lead to brief MVFR conditions for south and east
facing slopes and coasts for a few more hours this evening. As
such, AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration is in effect
through 10Z this evening for windward Big Island.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate upper level turbulence
between FL280 and FL350 due to a weak jet streak moving overhead.
This AIRMET will likely need to be expanded across the island
chain tomorrow as the jet streak strengthens and shifts slightly.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak front will approach from the northwest tonight, then move
into the far western waters Sunday afternoon. The front will then
shift slowly southeast down the island chain Sunday night and Monday
before dissipating around Maui or the Big Island by Tuesday. Winds
will remain light and variable during this time with land and sea
breezes developing near the island coastlines. A weak area of high
pressure will build in north of the islands around the middle of
next week, bringing a return of light to moderate trade winds.

A new, medium-period NW swell will build tonight and peak Sunday,
with peak surf heights bringing advisory level surf to many north
and west facing shores, then diminish Monday. In addition, a
fresh pulse of moderate-sized long-period NNE swell will peak
tonight, then gradually diminish over the next several days.
Moderate-sized northwest swell will persist for most of the
upcoming week. A large long-period NW swell is expected Friday and
Saturday, with peak surf heights approaching High Surf Warning
levels. No other significant swells are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

KBDI values remain elevated across leeward areas, and no significant
leeward rainfall is anticipated for at least the next several days.
Relative humidity values may approach the critical 45% threshold
during the late morning and afternoon hours as a relatively dry air
mass remains in place. However, light winds will prevent critical
fire weather conditions from developing.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 6 AM HST Monday for North and
West facing shores of Niihau Kauai Oahu Molokai and for North facing
shores of Maui.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Almanza
AVIATION...Farris
MARINE...Bedal