Makakilo, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

238
FXHW60 PHFO 040627
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
827 PM HST Sun May 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate easterly trade winds will persist through Monday, with
clouds and light showers favoring windward and mauka areas
overnight and during the early morning hours. Trades will ease
Tuesday as the surface ridge weakens, bringing a transition to
light winds, increasing humidity, and land and sea breeze
conditions through Thursday. Showers will remain brief and mainly
over interior and leeward areas during the afternoons. Rainfall
chances may increase by next weekend as an upper disturbance and a
weak front approach the islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moderate easterly trades will remain in place through Monday,
with low clouds and a few light showers focused over windward and
mauka areas, particularly during the overnight and early morning
hours. Leeward areas will remain mostly dry, with only isolated
passing showers possible.

Beginning Tuesday, the ridge north of the islands will weaken in
response to a series of cold fronts passing well north of the
state. This will lead to a gradual easing of the trade winds, with
local land and sea breeze circulations becoming more dominant
through midweek. From Tuesday through Thursday, a more humid air
mass will settle over the islands, with dewpoints potentially
climbing into the mid- to upper-60s. These dewpoints combined
with the afternoon sea breezes will support localized afternoon
cloud buildups and a few brief showers over interior and leeward
areas, followed by clearing at night as land breezes develop.

By the latter part of the week into the weekend, moisture and
rainfall chances may trend up. Global guidance indicates upper
heights lowering as an upper-level disturbance approaches the
region. In addition, a weak attendant frontal boundary may move
into the area. However, there remains considerable spread among
the model solutions regarding the timing and strength of these
features, so confidence in the details remains limited at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy easterly trades will persist through tonight
with clouds and brief showers favoring windward sites. Expect
periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility in showers, otherwise
widespread VFR is expected. Trade wind flow should weaken
slightly during the day on Monday, with the weakening trend set to
continue through mid-week.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, though AIRMET SIERRA
may need to be added to north through east portions of select
islands tonight as shower activity increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will through much of the
night as a stalled front weakens about 225 nm northwest of Kauai
and surface high pressure farther to the northwest moves eastward.
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued around Big Island and Maui
County for tonight due to an expected short-lived increase in the
trades. The surface high will steadily erode on Monday, leading
to a steady decline in the trades. Another front passing north of
the islands Tuesday and Wednesday will disrupt the trade winds.
Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected to redevelop Thursday
and Friday.

The current small northwest swell will decline tonight. A
moderate northwest swell will build on Monday and produce surf
above seasonal average during the peak Monday night and early
Tuesday. This swell will slowly decline late Tuesday and
Wednesday. A larger northwest swell could produce surf near the
High Surf Advisory level Thursday, then lower Friday into next
weekend.

A south-southwest swell will produce surf around seasonal average
into tonight and will gradually decrease Monday and Tuesday, with
mainly small background surf along south facing shores through
the rest of the week.

Trade wind swell will slowly lower below seasonal average on
Monday and will remain small through the remainder of the week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Wroe