Lahaina, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

431
FXHW60 PHFO 280140
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
340 PM HST Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through
Saturday then weaken and veer out of the east-southeast Sunday
into early next week as a broad, weak trough develops and moves
across the area. The lighter flow may allow for some isolated sea
breeze showers across leeward areas, in addition to the typical
windward and mauka showers. Midweek and beyond, the high to our
northeast will gradually build and bring breezy trades to the area
by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar and satellite imagery show a few clouds and showers
continuing to filter in on the moderate to locally breezy trades
this afternoon, with most of the showers focusing over the eastern
end of the state. In addition, diurnal heating caused clouds and
showers to build over the Kona slopes of the Big Island throughout
the day, as is typical for this time of year. Some wispy high
cirrus clouds can also be seen streaming across the island chain
from the west-southwest, which may help create another beautiful
Hawaiian sunset this evening.

Over the weekend and into early next week a surface ridge will
remain centered to the far northeast of the state, maintaining
moderate to locally breezy trades. Stability will increase as mid
level ridging tries to settle over the state from the east.
However, a series of upper level lows and troughs will keep an
area of upper level troughing to the northwest of the state. This
will translate to weak broad troughing developing at the surface
over or just north of the state later this weekend into early next
week, which will cause the low level flow to weaken and veer out
of the east-southeast. The instability provided by this weak
troughing over/near the state combined with pockets of moisture
moving in on the trades may be enough to enhance windward and
mauka showers during the overnight hours with some spillage over
into interior and leeward areas, and to help some clouds and
showers build over island interiors and leeward areas in the
afternoons where any sea breezes manage to develop in the lighter
flow. However, mid level ridging will still be present over the
majority of the state, despite the upper lows`/troughs` efforts
to penetrate in from the northwest...so not expecting a major
uptick in shower activity as the weak surface trough moves across
from the east.

By midweek, the surface trough will move west of the state and
dampen out. With high pressure remaining to the northeast, the
low level flow will back out of the east and strengthen to
moderate to locally breezy levels. Then heading into next weekend,
the surface high to our northeast will build, strengthening the
local pressure gradient and bringing breezy easterly trades across
the island chain. Overall, typical trade wind weather can be
expected through the second half of the week with periods of
windward and mauka showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy and stable trade wind weather will continue to persist
through Saturday. A pocket of moisture continues to linger over
the eastern half of the state this afternoon, which are producing
brief MVFR conditions with the heavier showers. Conditions should
gradually improve this evening, but some brief periods of MVFR
conditions will remain possible with any showers. Mostly dry
conditions are expected on Saturday, with the exception of some
scattered showers over windward Kauai and windward Big Island.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level lee turb. AIRMET
Sierra remains in effect for windward Maui due to clouds and
showers. This AIRMET should be cancelled sometime tonight as
showers decrease over windward Maui.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected through at
least Saturday as high pressure remains in place far northeast of
the main Hawaiian Islands. A Small Craft Advisory has been
extended for the typical windier waters and channels around Maui
and the Big Island through the day on Saturday. However, early
next week, a disturbance passing to the north of the islands may
weaken the trades a bit as they veer to become slightly east-
southeast.

South shore surf will remain near current levels through the
first half of the weekend as the current south swell declines but
a tiny long-period reinforcement arrives early Saturday morning.
Guidance remains in good agreement that a small, long-period
south swell will arrive late Sunday into Monday. This swell is
expected to boost south shore surf up to near the summertime
average, peaking on Monday and then declining through much of
next week.

Surf along east shores will remain rough and choppy for the next
couple of days due to the locally breezy trades. Surf along north
facing shores will remain tiny throughout the next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Kino
MARINE...Vaughan