Kihei, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

733
FXHW60 PHFO 210143
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
343 PM HST Fri Jun 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will remain anchored far northeast of the
state through next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka
areas, especially during the overnight through early morning
hours. Over the weekend, trades will increase and much drier air
will move into the region. More typical trade wind weather will
commence early next week as batches of moisture filter in on the
moderate to locally breezy trade winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon`s visible satellite imagery shows sparse incoming
open-celled cumulus clouds immediately upstream of the main
Hawaiian Islands that will continue to filter in on the trades and
bring brief periods of clouds and showers to windward and mauka
areas. In addition, clouds have built up over some leeward slopes,
especially over the Big Island. Just beyond the remaining open-
celled cumulus clouds, a large area of closed-cell cumulus can be
seen moving westward on the trades, which is indicative of the
drier, more stable airmass that is expected to move overhead this
weekend.

Surface high pressure will remain anchored far northeast of the
state through the end of next week and drive trade winds with
periodic showers across the region through the forecast period.
Embedded in the southwest flank of this surface high, a weak low
level trough (best seen at 700 mb) is passing over Hawaii this
afternoon with rather inconsequential impacts to our local
weather, as the surface reflection is quite weak. If anything, as
the axis of this weak trough continues to move across the western
end of the state this evening, we might see a slight uptick in
clouds and few more showers moving into windward areas of Oahu and
Kauai through tonight...but the available atmospheric moisture
looks to be limited.

The surface high will build over the weekend, strengthening the
local pressure gradient and bringing breezy trade winds across
the island chain. With the drier, more stable airmass moving
overhead, low subsidence temperature inversion heights in the
4,000 to 5,000 foot range are forecast, limiting cloud and shower
development tomorrow through Sunday. The combination of lower
humidity levels due to the drier air mass and breezy trade winds
will elevate fire concerns across the state on Sunday.

Wind speeds will drop back to more moderate to locally breezy
levels from Monday onward as the high weakens slightly. Batches
of moisture will filter in on the trades and bring periods of
showers to windward and mauka areas through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure remiains in place north of the Islands today and
will continue to produce moderate to locally breezy trade winds
(10 to 15 kt). Isolated showers are also possible on the windward
and mauka parts of each island.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
A nearly stationary high pressure system northeast of Hawaii will
continue to drive moderate to locally strong trades across the
local waters for the next couple of days. The Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) for typically windier waters and channels near Maui and the
Big Island remains in effect through Saturday afternoon. Trade
winds speeds are forecast to increase over the weekend as the high
strengthens, which will likely require the extension and
potentially the expansion of SCA conditions across the Hawaiian
waters later this weekend into early next week. Trade wind speeds
could then decrease slightly by middle of next week.

The current small, long-period, south swell will gradually ease
into the weekend, dropping south shore surf to below average. Back
to back pulses of slightly larger south swells are possible starting
Monday, which could build surf near to above advisory levels (10 ft)
along south facing shores as early as Monday night into Tuesday,then
remain near to above average through much of next week.

Rough and choppy conditions will continue along east facing shores,
then likely pick up a bit Sunday into early next week as winds
strengthen. Surf will remain very small along north facing shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...PECHACEK/Ahue
MARINE...TS