Kaneohe, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

959
FXHW60 PHFO 150125
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
325 PM HST Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to breezy trades will continue to focus showers over
windward and mauka areas through next week. A developing low aloft
could increase trade wind showers this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite imagery show isolated to scattered
showers moving into windward areas on the breezy trades this
afternoon, along with some high clouds streaming over the area
from the west. These high clouds are associated with the
subtropical jet to our south and are expected to stream across
portions of the island chain through tomorrow before gradually
clearing out this weekend as the subtropical jet shifts eastward.

High pressure currently centered about 1500 miles northeast of
the state will gradually sag a bit south this weekend as a series
of lows traverse across the northern Pacific. The movement of this
feature will have little affect on the local weather as moderate
to breezy trade winds are expected to persist across the area.
However, one of those northern Pacific lows will drag a front that
will stall well to the northwest of Kauai and turn into a trough
early next week. Model guidance suggests that the interaction of
this distant front/trough with the surface high to our northeast
will weaken the local pressure gradient and reduce trade wind
speeds slightly on Sunday into early next week.

Pockets of moisture caught up in the trades will bring periodic
clouds and showers into windward and mauka areas throughout the
forecast period. As a developing lower latitude upper level
trough/low develops and moves over the state tomorrow into early
next week, it will lower temperatures aloft slightly and increase
the temperature inversion heights. While the overall instability
isn`t expected to be impressive, the raised inversions will likely
allow for some enhancement of trade wind showers over the weekend
and into early next week as those pockets of moisture roll
through.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to breezy trade winds continue to prevail across the
island chain through at least Thursday afternoon, steered by high
pressure centered far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands.
Showers and occasional low clouds embedded within the trades will
favor north through east sections of the islands throughout this
period, especially during the overnight to early morning hours.
While VFR flight conditions will prevail at most locations,
periods of MVFR conditions will be possible within any showers
that occur.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed
through at least Thursday. Additionally, mountain obscuration
could become an issue across windward sides of the islands again
later this evening and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong high will remain far northeast of the state through
the week and continue to bring fresh to locally strong trade
winds to all local waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the
windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island remains in
effect through Thursday. Winds may ease slightly and veer toward
the east-southeast over the weekend due to a weak front far
northwest of the state.

The current moderate period south-southwest swell will continue to
decline through tonight. Expect mainly background energy along
south-facing shores on Thursday. A tiny long-period south-
southwest swell is possible this weekend. Otherwise, expect
mainly background energy through the middle of next week.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy the
next several days due to the fresh to locally strong trades. Surf
along north-facing shores will remain small with some background
northwest energy moving through throughout the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...Ahue/JVC