Kaneohe Base, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

474
FXHW60 PHFO 150150
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
350 PM HST Wed Jan 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the northwest will move southeast down the island
chain tonight through tomorrow and bring quick-hitting showers
followed by cool and dry conditions. Gusty southwest winds will be
in place tonight ahead of the front, with breezy north northwest
winds behind the front. The north northwest winds behind the front
will then shift to northeasterly and then easterly winds Friday
through Sunday, with dry and stable conditions expected. Another
cold front could affect the islands by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A combination of radar, satellite, and rain gauge data from today
have shown some localized heavy showers moving quickly over the
islands from the south. These showers are being generated by some
prefrontal moisture advection from the approaching cold front to
the northwest. The cold front is expected to move down the island
chain tonight through tomorrow, bringing widespread showers and
possible thunderstorms. The showers are expected to be moving
quickly enough that flooding chances remain low. The front will
reach Kauai by early evening, then through Oahu just after midnight
HST, and then on to Maui around sunrise, and finally through the
Big Island by Thursday afternoon.

Observations from today have shown strong southerly gusts up to
45 mph across the smaller islands. Gusts in the 40 to 50 mph
range are still possible over mountain ridgelines and along north
and east sections of most islands this afternoon and tonight ahead
of the front. A Wind Advisory is in effect to highlight these
impacts as the unusual southerly wind direction tends to produce
larger local scale impacts for these areas. The wind threat for
the smaller islands will then diminish as the front passes and the
winds become northwesterly. Strong winds just below advisory
levels are also forecast for Haleakala National Park on Maui with
southerly winds just below our summit wind advisory thresholds.
The highest summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa on the Big Island
will see the strongest winds with this event, and Wind Advisories
are in effect for both summits. The advisory for the summits could
be extended if advisory level winds last into Friday. Brief
periods of icing conditions are also possible on these higher
summits by Thursday.

High pressure will fill in behind the front, bringing cool and
dry conditions, and turn winds northeasterly by Friday. Saturday
and Sunday will have easterly to east southeast winds as the high
to the north moves east. Overall dry and stable conditions are
expected from Friday through Sunday. This drier post-frontal
airmass will produce much cooler temperatures for all islands,
especially during the overnight hours when the drier atmosphere
can more efficiently radiate heat into outer space.

Another round of wet weather remains possible for the middle of
next week. The latest extended model forecast guidance continues
to show good agreement on another period of cloudy skies and wet
weather as yet another cold front moves eastward down the island
chain from next week Wednesday through next Friday. Stay tuned as
the weather impacts from this next front will likely evolve over
time.



&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will move across Kauai and Oahu tonight, pass over
Maui County during the early morning hours, then reach the Big
Island midday Thursday. A prefrontal band has already brought
widespread MVFR conditions to Kauai, where AIRMET Sierra is in
effect for mountain obscuration. As the front progresses, expect
AIRMET Sierra to spread to Oahu and eventually Maui County
overnight, and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Conditions
will improve on Kauai around midnight and on Oahu closer to
daybreak. Locally strong and gusty south to southwest winds will
persist ahead of the front this evening from Kauai to Maui, where
AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain
is in effect. Expect AIRMET Tango to be dropped on Kauai then
Oahu overnight, with borderline conditions expected across Maui
County near daybreak as winds weaken. Breezy and drier northerly
winds will develop behind the front on Thursday, though MVFR
conditions are expected on the Big Island by midday as the front
advances.


&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will sweep across the coastal waters from west to
east late this evening through Thursday. Fresh to strong southwest
winds will quickly transition to northwesterly behind the frontal
passage. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for nearly
all coastal zones through at least late Thursday afternoon for
either combined seas above 10 feet, winds 20 to 30 kt, or both.
Flow veers easterly Friday through the weekend, remaining moderate
to locally strong, then weaker and southeasterly on Monday into
Tuesday as the next front approaches.

The current moderate medium period northwest (310-330) swell will
continue to fade through early tonight. Thus, the High surf
Advisory for north and west facing beaches was cancelled. The
next extra large, long period, northwest (320-340) swell will
begin to fill in tonight, peak Thursday afternoon, then slowly
fade through Friday. A High Surf Warning will go effect into from
midnight tonight through Friday for exposed north and west facing
shores of Kauai, Niihau, Oahu, Molokai, and north facing shores
of Maui. To a lesser extent, north facing shores of windward Big
Island and west facing shores of leeward Big Island will be
exposed to the incoming swell and advisories may needed for
Thursday afternoon. Combined seas will also be on the rise tonight
through Thursday afternoon, building to well over 10 feet, for
exposed zones.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through most of
this week due to shifting wind directions from the passing fronts.
However, some east facing shores sensitive to northerly swells
may experience a slight uptick in surf heights this weekend as the
fading northwesterly swell becomes more northerly. No noteworthy
swells are expected for the next few days for south facing shores.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM HST Friday for
Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui
Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai
West-Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until midnight HST tonight for Kauai Mountains-
Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Kauai East-Honolulu Metro-Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward-
Molokai Windward-Molokai Southeast-Maui Central Valley North.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island
Leeward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Tsamous
AVIATION...Wroe
MARINE...Thomas