Smyrna, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

042
FXUS62 KFFC 262350 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
750 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
      thunderstorms will be the primary concern.

    - Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages.

Current radar loop shows some isolated thunderstorms moving into
NW GA. The afternoon convection has taken a bit longer today to
get started because the area was so worked over from yesterdays
activity but, ample instability is again developing. Seeing MLCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg across the region with ML
Lapse Rates around 6 to 6.5. While things are not as unstable as
yesterday, there will still be sufficient support for at least a
few severe thunderstorms with a primary risk for strong downburst
wind gusts as well as a few instances of hail up to size of dime
to quarter size. For this reason, SPC has upgraded portions of the
area including the ATL metro area into a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5 risk) with the rest of the area still under a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 or 5). Storms could persist into the late evening.

On Friday, little change in the overall pattern and environment
is expected. With the area remaining in southwest flow around the
periphery of the western Atlantic high, diurnally driven
convection is again expected. Also, strong to severe isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible with an attendant strong
downburst wind potential.

As for temperatures, forecast highs Friday should be a couple of
degrees below Todays highs for most of the area. It will still be
hot with heat index values peaking in the 95 to 100 range for
North and Central GA.

01


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Key Messages:

  - Very moist forecast, with diurnally driven convection every day.

  - Severe not anticipated at this time, but some uncertainty.

Forecast:

Long term forecast is looking quite moist thanks to a series of
passing systems to the north and yet another TUTT breaking off in
the Atlantic into a closed low and retrograding towards the CWA.
PWATs over the long term period hover above average for this time
of year, which is saying something in late June, and the forecast
surface dewpoints reflect it with daily Tds reaching into 70s
across the entire CWA. Ensembles are pretty consistent with the
rainfall - some differences arise towards the end of the long term
period where the GFS and some of its members are a bit more
aggressive in developing a surface low along the gulf that pushes
yet another wave of moisture into the CWA by midweek of next week
that may lead to even greater rainfall amounts ahead of an
approaching frontal system that is driven towards the area.
Currently, most of this rainfall looks to be diurnally driven,
meaning greatest chances of rain and storms will be in the
afternoon to evening hours. Repeated rounds of daily rainfall may
lead to some flash flooding concerns, especially in more urban
areas, though hard to pinpoint any potential locations to be
concerned about this far in advance.

Severe chances are looking low over the time period at this time,
or at least no more than your typical summer day with afternoon
storms. Our upper level lapse rates return to normal, and within
most of the guidance the retrograding upper level low doesn`t
quite make it over the CWA before it begins to fill. However, this
upper low does represent a bit of uncertainty - if it were to
move over the CWA, it could bring in some better lapse rates as
cooler air moves in aloft that could create better instability and
potential for severe storms. Will need to keep an eye on this
going forward, but current ensemble consensus is to keep this
feature offshore.

Lusk


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 733 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Convection has largely tapered off across north and central
Georgia, with the exception of a stray storm or two possible
through around 02z. Like yesterday, mainly mid-/upper-level clouds
(VFR) are expected through the overnight, with the possibility of
patchy low clouds and FG/BR (currently not mentioned in the
TAFs). Winds will be light/VRB to calm overnight through early
tomorrow (Friday) morning. Isolated to scattered convection is
expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening, with PROB30s at all
TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  92  70  90 /  30  60  40  60
Atlanta         72  91  71  90 /  40  60  40  50
Blairsville     64  88  65  86 /  30  70  40  70
Cartersville    69  92  70  90 /  40  60  40  60
Columbus        72  92  71  91 /  30  50  40  60
Gainesville     70  91  71  89 /  40  60  40  60
Macon           71  92  71  91 /  20  60  40  60
Rome            69  91  71  89 /  40  60  30  60
Peachtree City  69  91  69  90 /  30  60  40  50
Vidalia         72  93  71  91 /  20  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011-012-
019-020-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Martin