Hinesville, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

837
FXUS62 KCHS 061959
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
359 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal
boundaries and disturbances impact the region. A few storms may
be severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the
primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early
next week in the wake of a strong cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Late Afternoon into Early Evening: A typical summertime environment
will remain in place for the remainder of the day as subtropical
ridging remains centered across southern Texas and parts of the Deep
South while a light west/southwest sfc winds prevail across most
areas away from the coast in wake of sfc low pressure exiting
further to the northeast off North Carolina coast. A few showers
have managed to develop this afternoon, primarily south of I-16
across Southeast Georgia. Although soundings continue to indicate
rather dry conditions, strong sfc heating leading to highs in the
upper 80s/lower 90s should continue to support convection into late
afternoon/early evening hours within an environment displaying
SBCAPE around 3000-4000 J/kg, DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk
shear around 20 kts. Given the lack of stronger synoptic forcing,
thunderstorms that manage to occur late day should remain mostly sub-
severe. However, if convective outflows interact with a sea breeze,
a few thunderstorms could become strong and/or severe with damaging
winds and cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary concerns.
There is a secondary, but likely lessor chance for small hail
occurring as well. Convection will likely diminish/wane quickly
this evening with the onset of nocturnal stabilization.

Overnight: Dry conditions will prevail, but there remains a low
chance of showers/thunderstorms originating from northern Georgia
to make a run for far interior areas late night. Latest guidance
suggests the bulk of this activity to dissipate prior to reaching
the area and/or in a much weaker state should it reach inland
areas. At this time, the forecast remains precip-free through
the night while temps remain warm, generally only dipping into
the lower 70s inland to mid-upper 70s near the coast. Some
beach locations could even remain around 80 degrees. These lows
could challenge the record high minimums for 7 June, especially
at the Charleston Intl Airport (KCHS) and Downtown Charleston/Waterfront
Park (KCXM). See the climate section below for additional information.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: As a shortwave traverses eastward across the Midwest, a
MCV will likely develop in the wake of an ongoing MCS across the
Southern Plains and begin to approach the Southeast throughout the
day. Across the Lowcountry, very humid conditions are expected
tomorrow as afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s and
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This will allow for heat indices to
rise into the upper 90s to lower 100s, the warmest along and east of
I-95. This is not uncommon for the Lowcountry, however its a good
reminder to stay well hydrated and take breaks indoors as needed.
Along with balmy conditions, skies should remain mostly clear
throughout the day and allow for decent diurnal heating to take
place.

This aforementioned MCV will move coincidentally with the shortwave
into the Southeastern CONUS in the afternoon hours. Given the
overall environmental conditions this system is walking into
tomorrow, the potential for these storms to become severe remains
quite likely. Latest soundings tomorrow afternoon have been
displaying CAPE values well over 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values ~1000 J/kg,
and 0-6 km bulk shear values ~30 kt. Addition to this, strong
diurnal heating throughout the day will result steep low-lvl lapse
rates. These environmental values indicate that the main threat with
this system will be damaging wind gusts and small hail. Recent
guidance suggests that this MCV will reach the area ~00Z (8PM EDT),
however the confidence with this remains low as this system might
not be able to hold itself together as it approaches the region.

If this system does end up holding together, convection could linger
till ~07Z (1AM EDT) and then fizzle out as instability and shear
wanes. Overnight lows will be mild and only dip into the low to mid
70s, with upper 70s along the beaches.

Sunday: If this MCV does make it down to the region, this could
inhibit convection development on Sunday as the atmosphere works to
stabilize itself. However, if this MCV does fizzle out before
reaching the area, the better chance for severe weather would be
Sunday. With robust surface heating throughout the day and another
mid-lvl shortwave traversing across the Eastern CONUS, the chance
for damaging wind gusts and small hail seems very likely. The severe
potential for Sunday will be continued to be monitored as it all
depends on what happens on Saturday with this MCV. Otherwise, expect
another hot and humid day with heat indices in the upper 90s to
lower 100s again. Overnight lows will be mild again as well with
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Monday: Expect an upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes
region to deepen throughout the day, while an associated cold front
approaches the region and then stalls nearby. Showers and
thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon along the sea breeze as
environment conditions remain favorable for development.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler than the last couple days with
highs reaching into the upper 80s and heat indices remaining below
100. However, overnight lows remain mild.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
This upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes region should
become more amplified across the Eastern CONUS on Tuesday and then
taper off afterwards. This aforementioned cold front extending from
this upper-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes region could
pass through sometime mid-week. This typical diurnal summertime
pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the
seabreeze in the afternoon will continue. Expect temperatures to be
somewhat cooler through the period in the wake of the cold front
passing through.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z
Saturday. However, a few showers and/or thunderstorm could
impact the SAV terminal mid-late afternoon. Probabilities remain
too low to include in the latest TAF issuance, but VCSH is
currently in place at the SAV terminal from 18-21Z this
afternoon. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms could develop
near coastal areas early Saturday afternoon, and eventually
impact all terminals, but should occur just after 18Z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: This typical summertime convection
pattern will bring periodic flight restrictions through early next
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Late Afternoon through Tonight: South-southwest winds between 10-15
kt will prevail across most local waters with occasional gusts up to
20 kt late day near the land/sea interface where a sea breeze has
developed. Otherwise, expect southwest/west winds ranging between 10-
15 kt to return across the waters overnight between low pressure
exiting further to the north-northeast and high pressure extending
across the western Atlantic. Seas will generally range between
2-3 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday: Expect south-westerly winds to prevail
throughout the period, with speeds generally 10 to 15 kt. It could
become a bit gusty on Saturday and Sunday afternoon with gusts up to
20 to 23 kt possible with the sea breeze pushing inland (gusts will
be strongest across the Charleston Harbor). SCAs are not needed at
this time for the Harbor, however this will be continued to be
monitored. This south-easterly swell will begin to taper off and
seas will range from 2 to 3 ft, with some 4 footers in the outer
Georgia waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 7:
KCHS: 75/2021
KCXM: 79/2021

June 8:
KCHS: 76/1980
KCXM: 78/2021
KSAV: 79/1881

June 9:
KCHS: 77/1978
KSAV: 77/1877

June 11:
KCHS: 76/2020
KSAV: 76/2010

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...Dennis
LONG TERM...Dennis
AVIATION...Dennis/DPB
MARINE...Dennis/DPB