Evans, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

317
FXUS62 KCAE 121814
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
214 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is expected as we head through the week and
upper ridging sets up over the Southeastern US. This should also
result in a more typical summertime pattern with scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers and storms expected into this evening.

- Very saturated conditions across the northern FA could lead to
  more flooding issues.

- Rises in some streams/rivers occurring and should continue
  into tonight.

The northern FA toward Edgefield, Saluda, Newberry, northern
Lexington, and southern Winnsboro Counties saw 2-4" of rain
over the last 24 hours and this has led to very saturated soils
here along with rises in some streams and rivers across the
area. Due to this, a River Flood Advisory is now in effect for
the Congaree River in Columbia and River Flood Warnings will
take effect this evening and tonight for the Congaree River at
Carolina Eastman and at Congaree National Park as the river
continues to rise tonight.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure slowly are working into
the area, which can be felt through temperatures that are in the
mid to upper 80s across the south, but it is cooler in the north
with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s due to increased
cloud cover from rain/storms this morning. Moisture remains
fairly high as PWAT`s are between 2-2.1" and surface dewpoints
are in the mid to upper 70s. This has allowed 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE to develop and as we continue into the afternoon,
scattered showers/storms should continue to develop across the
area, focused mainly along and north of I-20. The main hazard
with this activity should be efficient rainfall. With the very
low Flash Flood Guidance due to saturated soils and the
rainfall seen north of I-20 yesterday into this morning, it will
not take much rain to lead to the onset of flash flooding.
Places where these showers/storms slowly move over into this
evening will be the most at risk for areas of flash flooding to
develop, along with possibly worsening any stream/river
flooding. Due to this a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for
excessive rainfall is seen from WPC for the remainder of today
and into tonight.

Showers/storms should slowly dwindle overnight and any activity
that carries overnight should generally not be very widespread,
but 12z HREF members do suggest any activity will again be
mainly confined to the now very rain sensitive upstate and the
northern FA. Due to this, keeping an eye on rain trends
overnight here will be needed as periods of heavy rain cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Gradual warming trend for the second half of the week to near
  seasonal temps.
- Shower and storm chances decrease as upper ridge strengthens.

Upper ridge continues to build over the area and edge westward
during the short term period, allowing temperatures to warm a bit
each day to closer to normal. This ridge is also forecast to push
the widespread rain chances westward as well, so expect a decrease
in coverage each day. However, PWATs are forecast to remain around
2", which could lead to locally heavy rainfall each day. Due to the
recent rainfalls, the soils are fairly saturated and rivers are
running on the higher side. As a result, isolated flash flooding
is possible each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Uncertainty increases during the extended as model guidance shows
  a variety of possibilities for daytime temperatures due to
  differences in the strength and position of the upper ridge.

Upper ridging should weaken its hold over the region as it retreats
to the west. The lower heights aloft would favor slightly lower
temperatures, near or slightly below seasonal values. However, there
is a large spread in the model guidance regarding high temperatures,
likely due to uncertainty in the ridge strength and position. The
guidance suite seems more in agreement regarding drier conditions
during the weekend, before greater uncertainty enters the forecast
heading into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions this afternoon with possible shower/storm
associated restrictions. IFR to LIFR conditions return tonight
and into Wednesday morning as more stratus is expected.

Stratus has slowly lifted and some low cumulus (around 2-3.5k
ft) are seen, giving brief periods of MVFR ceilings. Showers
are a bit spotty at the moment but I did add TEMPO groups at the
TAF sites for possible restrictions associated with this
activity this afternoon and into this evening when coverage
should increase some more. Some of this activity may linger
into the evening and overnight but confidence in restrictions
due to this is low at the moment. Tonight, more IFR to LIFR
stratus is expected to develop with the highest confidence at
CAE/CUB/OGB and lower confidence at AGS/DNL. The expected window
for this is mainly from 10-14z before like today, it slowly
lifts and gives way to MVFR ceilings through the remainder of
Wednesday morning. Winds generally remain light and variable
today to out of the south-southeast, but should flip out of the
southwest tomorrow.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...More typical summertime conditions
return with afternoon convection and possible periods of stratus
in the morning each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$