Duluth, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

500
FXUS62 KFFC 141758
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
158 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

 - Isolated severe storms could produce large hail in northeast
   Georgia this afternoon.

 - Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected in Georgia
   on Thursday.

Today through Thursday:

A weak shortwave moving through the region should support scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning in north Georgia.
Limited instability for this feature to work with suggests that
stronger storms are improbable this morning. As we move into the
afternoon diurnal heating and a building upper level ridge will
battle for control over convection. Rising temperatures and surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s should combine to to generate 1000-2000
J/kg of SBCAPE by around 2 PM greatly improving the amount of
potential instability. The building upper level ridge will counter
this by increasing subsidence above 700 mb and a generating a warm
layer near 700 mb that should hinder storm formation. This process
will be most pronounced in western Georgia. Combined these factors
suggest that northeast Georgia has the best potential for
thunderstorms this afternoon. A couple of those storms could be
severe given that the CAM guidance is progging supercell composite
indices between 5 and 15, and mid level lapse rates of 6.5 and 7.5
C/km. Severe weather is most likely between 3 PM and 7 PM, with the
primary hazard being hail to the size of quarters. A limited
potential exists for a storm to produce ping pong ball or larger
hail if conditions come together just right. Damaging wind gusts in
the 40 to 60 mph range could also occur. The overall coverage of
severe weather should be limited, potentially restricted to just 1
or 2 storms. Note that the SPC has upgraded northeast Georgia to a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather today, with hail
being the focus.

Thunderstorms chances should fall off rapidly with the loss of
diurnal heating these evening. Low cloud cover should return from
the southwest overnight. Across central Georgia a few patches of fog
could develop. The odds of a Dense Fog Advisory are very low (<10%).

Upper level ridging will assert firm control of the weather in
Georgia on Thursday. This will lead to warming temperatures and dry
weather. Be prepared for those fair weather cumulus in the
afternoon. Widespread high temperatures in the 86 to 91 degree range
are expected (4 to 9 degrees above average for mid May).

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Key Messages:

 - Afternoon highs likely to be above average through the period

 - Chances for thunderstorms (some strong to severe) each
   afternoon through early next week

The long term forecast picks up on Friday morning with quasi-zonal
flow at the mid-levels and the western fringes of a broad surface
high overspreading much of the Southeast. Our sensible weather late
week and beyond will be governed by a combination of several
shortwaves traversing the benign mid-level flow, and a frontal
boundary approaching from the northwest beginning early Friday.
Global model guidance suggests the potential for the aforementioned
front to stall out across the midsection of the state, which, in
concert with any reinforcing mid-level perturbations, will serve to
support the development of convection each afternoon. Beginning late
Friday, a mid-level closed low will nudge nearly due eastward across
the Great Lakes toward New England. As it does so, a core of
enhanced flow rounding the base of the broader trough will support a
surge in bulk shear for the northern half of the forecast area (on
the order of 40-60kts per ensembles). Expect strong, unidirectional
shear profiles to linger until the closed low begins to exit the
Eastern Seaboard Monday into Tuesday, which combined with
instability on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg, may allow for upscale
growth of any patchy convection into a more organized complex of
storms. Both GFS and Euro guidance show signals that suggest
multiple waves of semi-organized thunderstorms are possible Friday
through Monday. No areas are currently formally outlooked by SPC,
but strong to marginally severe storms seem most probable early
Saturday into Sunday when frontal forcing is most potent. Our
primary concern within any lines of thunderstorms will be the
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts embedded within the
strongest segments of the line.

Thanks to a conveyor belt of warm, moist, southwesterly fetch off of
the Gulf at the surface, temperatures will soar through the
extended. Highs are likely to top out in the mid-80s to mid-90s each
day (aside from the terrain of northeast Georgia, which is progged
to remain in the mid-70s to lower-80s), as much as 8-12 degrees
above average. Will need to keep an eye on the impacts of convective
coverage on temperatures on Friday and Saturday, as Atlanta may
approach record highs both days. Expect lows in the lower 60s to
lower 70s each night.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT to BKN cu at
3-5kft and will persist through at least 00z. Another wave of
midlevel energy will sweep through the area overnight keeping
SCT-BKN higher level clouds in the area. There is also another
opportunity for clouds at 015-030ft between 10-15z due to
continued southerly LL flow. However, confidence remains low on if
solid MVFR cigs will develop and persist. Cigs begins lifting
after 15z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on cigs early Thursday morning.
High confidence on remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          82  63  86  68 /  30  10   0   0
Atlanta         84  65  87  70 /  20  10   0   0
Blairsville     77  59  83  64 /  30  20   0   0
Cartersville    84  63  87  67 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus        88  65  90  67 /  10  10   0   0
Gainesville     81  64  85  69 /  30  10   0   0
Macon           86  64  89  67 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            84  63  86  67 /  20  10   0   0
Peachtree City  86  63  88  68 /  20  10   0   0
Vidalia         87  67  91  69 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...07