Atlanta, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

950
FXUS62 KFFC 150609
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
209 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather and above average temperatures will prevail today
   and Friday.

 - A daily record high temperature is within the realm of
   possibility (~33% chance) for Atlanta on Friday.

Today & Friday:

Upper level ridging will be the dominate player in Georgia`s weather
today and it`s influence will linger through Friday. Subsidence
associated with the ridge will produce a warm layer (inversion) near
700 mb that will inhibit deep convection. As a consequence
thunderstorms are not expected in northern or central Georgia
through Friday evening. Rising heights and subsidence will also
allow high temperature to peak in the upper 80s and lower 90s. There
is a chance (~33% per the NBM) of Atlanta tying or breaking a daily
record high Friday afternoon. The current record for the date is 91
degrees from 1962. The factor most likely to prevent a record high
would be extensive high cloud cover from storms to our west. It
should be noted that the record highs for Atlanta on Thursday and
Friday are significantly lower than the records at surrounding
climate sites (Athens, Macon & Columbus). Thus widespread record
highs are not expected over the next two days. Afternoon highs will
still be 7 to 14 degrees above seasonal averages across all of north
and central Georgia.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Key Messages:

 - Afternoon highs likely to be several degrees above average
   through the period

 - Chances for thunderstorms (some strong to severe) each
   day/evening through mid-week next week

The long term forecast picks up on Saturday morning with quasi-zonal
flow at the mid-levels and the western fringes of a broad surface
high overspreading much of the Southeast. Our sensible weather
through the weekend and into next week will be governed by a
combination of several shortwaves traversing the benign mid-level
flow, and a frontal boundary trekking southeastward across the
forecast area. By early Saturday, a mid-level closed low will
continue to nudge nearly due eastward across the Great Lakes toward
New England. As it does so, a core of enhanced flow rounding the
base of the broader trough will support a surge in bulk shear for
the northern half of the forecast area (on the order of 40-60kts per
ensembles). Expect strong, unidirectional shear profiles to linger
until the closed low begins to exit the Eastern Seaboard Monday into
Tuesday, which when combined with instability on the order of 1000-
2000 J/kg, may allow for upscale growth of any patchy, discrete
convection into a more organized complex of storms. Both GFS and
Euro guidance show signals that suggest multiple waves of semi-
organized thunderstorms are possible Friday evening through Monday,
and some semblance of a mesoscale convection system (MCS -- or its
remnants) is likely to be ongoing at the start of the extended range
late Friday/early Saturday. Aside from a very small sliver of
northwest Georgia included within a Marginal Risk for Day 3 (8AM
Friday through 8AM Saturday), no areas are currently formally
outlooked by SPC, but strong to marginally severe storms seem most
probable late Saturday through Sunday when frontal forcing is most
potent. Our primary concern for the strongest storms that do
form/organize will be the potential for isolated damaging wind
gusts embedded within the strongest segments of the line.

Moving into Monday and the work week, high pressure remains present
at the surface, with weak ridging beginning to sweep across the Deep
South at the mid-levels. Global model guidance progs a swath of
moisture rounding the peak of the ridge from late Monday through
early Wednesday, which should relegate lingering chances for showers
and thunderstorms primarily to areas along and north of I-20,
leaving the southern half of the area mostly dry.

Thanks to a conveyor belt of warm, moist, southwesterly fetch off of
the Gulf at the surface, temperatures will soar through the
extended. Highs are likely to top out in the mid-80s to mid-90s each
day (aside from the terrain of northeast Georgia, which is progged
to remain in the mid-70s to lower-80s), as much as 8-12 degrees
above average. Will need to keep an eye on the impacts of convective
coverage on temperatures on Saturday, as Atlanta may begin to
encroach upon record highs. Expect lows in the lower 60s to lower
70s each night.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Patchy IFR and MVFR ceilings (800-1800 ft AGL) may occur in west
central Georgia through 14Z today. Then VFR conditions will
continue through at least 12Z Friday. Winds will be from the
southwest (200-260 degrees) today at speeds of 6 to 14 kt. Gusts
in the 18 to 25 kt range are possible between 15Z today and 23Z
Friday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate confidence that MVFR ceilings will stay away between 11Z
and 15Z today.
High confidence in all other elements of the TAF.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  68  90  69 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         87  70  90  70 /   0   0   0  20
Blairsville     83  64  84  65 /   0   0  10  50
Cartersville    87  67  89  69 /   0   0   0  30
Columbus        90  67  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     85  69  89  70 /   0   0   0  20
Macon           89  67  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            86  67  88  69 /   0   0   0  50
Peachtree City  88  68  91  68 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         91  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Albright