West Palm Beach, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

019
FXUS62 KMFL 101216
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
816 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Broad surface low pressure in the NE Gulf west of the Tampa Bay
area continues to be the main focus of showers and thunderstorms
this morning over the nearshore Gulf waters, as well as coastal
sections of SW Florida. Convergent S-SW low level flow along the
SW Florida Gulf coast will continue to focus locally heavy
rainfall across these areas for most of the morning, and made
minor upward adjustments to PoPs and cloud cover to account for
these short term trends. As has been the case early this morning
over the barrier islands of Lee County, will have to keep a close
eye on the potential for locally high rainfall amounts and
flooding in coastal Collier County this morning. The HREF LPMM
values from last night`s model run indicated isolated 3-4" rain
amounts along the Collier County coast, which is fairly consistent
with trends. Rainfall may gradually taper off along the Gulf coast
later this afternoon as the low slowly moves west, and this is
reflected in a slight lowering of PoPs late this afternoon.

Over the rest of South Florida, started off the morning with lower
PoPs, then gradually increasing shower/thunderstorm chances over
the Everglades towards midday as daytime heating should start
driving convective development. Outflows from the SW Florida
convection is also expected to enhance convection over interior
sections and spread east towards metro SE Florida during the
afternoon. How far east will the showers and thunderstorms spread
this afternoon will depend on how quickly the Atlantic ridge
builds into SE Florida. The western suburbs of SE Florida have a
higher chance of rain where the SE low level flow converges with
the westerly winds coming out of the Gulf convective complex, with
slightly lower chances along the Atlantic coast.

Tweaked temperatures downward a couple of degrees, mainly SW
Florida, due to extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Abundant moisture in the presence of a stationary surface boundary
draped over the Florida peninsula will continue to promote
unsettled weather across South Florida today. Activity will begin
to develop across the Gulf waters and move inland across the
southwest Florida coastline early this morning. Showers and storms
will gradually propagate eastward across the interior and then,
later this evening, over the East Coast metro areas. With
overnight observed and forecast sounding PWATs in the 2.3-2.5"
inch range and light steering flow, there could be concerns for
isolated urban flooding across the East Coast metro, especially
for vulnerable areas and areas that have already received 4+
inches of rain over the weekend.

A return to our regular summertime pattern comes on Monday as
surface high begins to build in from the western Atlantic and PWAT
values drop to climatological normals. Light easterly-southeasterly
flow will set up, and chances for rainfall will once again be
dominated by diurnal heating and sea breeze dynamics, which will
favor scattered afternoon showers across the interior and southwest
Florida.

High temperatures will remain typical for this time of year as they
will rise up to the low 90s across most areas. Heat indices could
rise into the low 100s, however cloud coverage should help keep
conditions below advisory criteria. Balmy conditions overnight, with
lows in the upper 70s and upper 80s along the coasts, and low 70s
across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Surface high will remain in place across the western Atlantic Ocean
and the Florida peninsula, promoting light easterly-southeasterly
flow and seasonal afternoon showers each day. Activity will be sea
breeze driven and mostly clustered over interior and southwest
Florida. Temperatures will reach the low-mid 90s each afternoon and
there will be a marginal concern for heat indices nearing or
exceeding advisory values across the whole CWA. This possibility
will need to be monitored father as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Main weather impacts at KAPF/SW Florida where TEMPO VCTS and brief
IFR conditions through at least 14z and potentially as late as 20z
today. Mainly VFR at SE Florida terminals through 18z, then SHRA/TSRA
expected to gradually increase in coverage and move east towards
the SE Florida terminal sites. PROB30 for TSRA at MIA-PBI area
sites 18z-00z as activity should remain scattered in coverage but
with fairly high chance of affecting at least some of the sites.
Winds SE around 10 knots, except gusts to 25-30 kt in SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds continue today.
Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west-southwesterly winds over the
west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except
around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough
seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A moderate risk of rip currents across the Palm Beach and Broward
county beaches continues today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  80  92  81 /  50  40  50  30
West Kendall     88  77  92  78 /  50  30  60  30
Opa-Locka        90  79  93  80 /  50  40  50  30
Homestead        88  78  91  80 /  50  30  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  88  80  90  80 /  50  30  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  88  80  92  81 /  50  30  50  20
Pembroke Pines   90  80  94  81 /  50  40  50  30
West Palm Beach  88  79  92  80 /  60  30  40  20
Boca Raton       90  78  92  80 /  60  30  40  20
Naples           88  77  93  78 /  70  50  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
UPDATE/AVIATION...Molleda