Tampa, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS62 KTBW 292357
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
757 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are
  expected through the week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
  day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Last of the TSRA in SW FL this evening to begin clearing around
01Z with VFR conditions overnight area wide with light winds and
clearing skies. Expect increased rain chances TUE afternoon with
TSRA near most terminals and will introduce Prob30s for MVFR
cigs/vsby and gusty winds aft 18Z.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Afternoon showers and storms are beginning to materialize, with
further development expected as the afternoon continues. Similar
to the past couple of days, storms will be slow moving, with
isolated heavy downpours possible. SPC has placed most of west
central FL in a marginal risk(1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms.
Storms that develop have the potential for strong, damaging winds
and frequent lightning.

As the week continues, strong upper level ridging builds over the
eastern US allowing a more easterly flow. Moisture increases as
cool front moves into north Florida Tuesday. Deep moisture over
the area will keep PoPs high through the remainder of the week.
Flow will remain light so storms will be slow moving allowing for
locally heavy rainfall. WPC has placed most of the forecast area
in marginal risk (1 of 5) for excessive rainfall Tuesday.
Localized minor urban flooding could be possible with any storm.

Unfortunately, each day before the rain provides relief,
temperatures will continue to run in the low to mid 90s with heat
indices reaching into the triple digits.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light flow through the week will keep boating conditions pleasant.
The main concern will be showers and storms that develop or move
over the waters generating locally rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the week as ample
moisture lingers over the area. Showers and storms expected each
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  92  78  92 /  10  70  30  70
FMY  78  95  77  94 /  10  50  30  80
GIF  77  94  76  93 /  30  80  20  60
SRQ  79  93  77  93 /  10  60  40  80
BKV  76  94  73  94 /  10  70  20  50
SPG  81  92  79  93 /  10  70  40  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming