St. Petersburg, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

815
FXUS62 KTBW 050025
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
825 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast during the
  morning hours moving eastward during the late afternoon through
  the weekend.

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 106 degrees will   occur
  through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

We are seeing a shift in the wind flow to a more onshore south-
southwest flow as the high pressure center shifts southeastward and
ridges westward across south Florida and into the central Gulf. This
onshore flow combined with continued abundant moisture has led to
scattered showers and storms along the coastline this morning.
Coverage will increase to scattered to numerous this afternoon and
evening as they traverse eastward over the interior. Similar
conditions expected on Sunday with early morning showers and storms
over the eastern Gulf waters and along the west coast traversing
eastward through the day. Not a lot of change expected in the
weather pattern through the middle of next week.

By Wednesday, high pressure remains over south Florida and a south-
southwest onshore shore will prevail, but some slightly drier air
with PWAT values around 1.7-2.0 inches will move over the region.
This is still abundant moisture for daily showers and storms, but
may slightly decrease chances down to around 20-40 percent from
Wednesday through the end of next week. Near seasonal temps in the
low to mid 90s continue with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees
expected each afternoon. Overnight lows remain warm and muggy in the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
VRF conditions, light winds and clearing skies overnight, but may
see localized residual fireworks smoke. Light SW flow continues
with SCT SHRA/TSRA expected VC coastal terminals after 09Z with
PROB30s for likely timing of VFR conditions before clearing aft
18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Pleasant boating conditions expected through the weekend and into
next week with winds around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or
less. The only marine impact expected will be some scattered showers
and storms, which may produce some gusty erratic winds and rough
seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue with scattered to numerous showers
and storms expected. Outside of storms, winds will remain less than
10 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  90  81  91 /  50  40  30  40
FMY  77  91  78  93 /  40  40  30  60
GIF  76  92  76  94 /  30  60  20  80
SRQ  79  91  79  92 /  40  30  30  40
BKV  74  92  74  93 /  40  40  30  50
SPG  80  90  80  91 /  50  30  30  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Delerme