Spring Hill, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

641
FXUS62 KTBW 141129
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
629 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for dense sea fog Saturday night.

- Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms associated with a cold
  front late Sunday and Sunday night.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday and
  Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026
High pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida
today with mostly sunny skies and warm conditions with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. The area of high pressure will shift
east of Florida Saturday night as a strong southern stream
disturbance and associated cold front approaches the western
Florida panhandle. Winds will begin to veer to the southeast which
may allow sea fog to redevelop over the northern and central
coastal waters as warm moist air advects over the relatively
cooler shelf waters.

South to southwest winds will be on the increase across the forecast
area on Sunday in advance of this potent storm system. A line of
showers and thunderstorms (likely QLCS) ahead of a cold front will
push across west central and southwest Florida late Sunday and
Sunday night. 85H winds of 40 to 50 knots will move over the
forecast area along with a somewhat coupled 30H jet, with northern
portions of the forecast area in the RRQ of the polar jet and the
LFQ of the subtropical jet. This set-up poses the risk for
damaging wind gusts along the QLCS. SPC has northern portions of
the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
associated with this line of storms, with a marginal risk as far
south as about Bradenton...which is about the southern
delineation of the LFQ of the subtropical jet. Will continue to
monitor evolution of this system over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Also, the increasing southwest winds over the eastern Gulf ahead
of the line of showers/storms may cause minor coastal flooding
north of about Hernando beach with water levels increasing to
about 2 feet MHHW at the time of high tide Sunday night.

High pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in
the wake of the front late Monday and Monday night with slightly
drier cooler air advecting over the area...however temperatures will
only drop back to near climatic normals for a day. The area of high
pressure will shift east of Florida mid week with boundary layer
winds veering to the east/southeast which will cause L/L moisture to
increase and temperatures to warm back to several degrees above
climatic normals, which will persist through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026
Winds will veer southeast Saturday night ahead of a cold front
and this could cause sea fog to redevelop over the waters due to
the warm moist air riding over the relatively cooler shelf waters.
Winds and seas will build ahead of a cold front on Sunday with
SCA conditions possible. A potent storm system will move across
the region late Sunday into Monday with a line of showers and
possible strong thunderstorms ahead of cold front pushing across
the region from northwest to southeast. A few storms may be
severe, mainly across the northern and central waters. Gusty
northwest winds will develop behind the cold front on Monday as
high pressure builds over the region. Winds and seas will
gradually subside on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  62  78  63 /   0   0  40  90
FMY  82  61  81  64 /   0   0   0  70
GIF  81  61  83  63 /   0   0  30  90
SRQ  79  59  77  62 /   0   0  20  90
BKV  81  53  82  56 /   0   0  50  90
SPG  78  63  77  64 /   0   0  40  90

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle