Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

014
FXUS62 KJAX 221444
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
944 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Current forecast was on track with minor changes. One weak shortwave
trough is moving swifting across the region this morning, and
another stronger one is located over the TN valley moving east to
southeast. The latter one will be at the SC/NC coast by late this
evening. Both of the these features will support periods of partly
to occasionally mostly cloudy skies into the evening hours over
the forecast area. Sfc high pressure continues just north of the
area while inverted troughing offshore will continue to support a
low chance of a shower into late tonight over the offshore coastal
waters. So far, no radar returns from the sfc trough but the initial
shortwave across northeast FL is supporting weak reflectivity that
is not reaching the ground per observations. One or two of the
models suggest some weak isolated showers possible later today
over northeast FL given some synoptic lift from the stronger
shortwave, but the forcing is weak and brief, and model QPF from
guidance is pretty non-existent. Thus, will keep the rain chance
at only 5-10 percent for northeast FL at this time. Otherwise,
forecast max temps look good with little change, expecting mainly
60s for the entire area, still a few degrees below normal.

For the marine forecast, northeasterly winds are still upwards of
about 15 kt on the northwest side of the coastal trough near the
coast. Buoy 41008 showed ENE 14 kt recently, and Fernandina Beach
NOS site showed northeast 15G18 kt. Toward SAUF1 C-MAN, winds
were 10 kt recently and more variable 5-10 kt toward Flagler
Beach. Will keep the northeast wind of 10-15 kt for nearshore
and about 10 kt further offshore. Seas generally to about 3-5 ft
today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 207 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Increasing cloudiness today and warmer with less wind as a broad
area of low pressure forms across the southern Gulf today, then
crosses the FL peninsula this evening. There is a low (< 10%) of
light mainly coastal showers across NE FL this afternoon into the
early evening as the broad low tracks across south FL and a mid
level short wave trough passes overhead. With the warmer westerly
flow today, high temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees warmer
today and range from the low 60s across SE GA to near 70 across
our inland north-central FL zones.

The broad low tracks offshore away from the local waters tonight
as surface high pressure builds northwest of the region, with a
dry and cool low level NW drainage flow across the local area
under mostly clear skies. Continued with lows in the mid 30s
across SE GA where areas of frost are possible toward daybreak
Sunday morning with more mild lows in the low/mid 40s along the
coast and across the St. Johns River basin. A frost advisory may
be needed for portions of inland SE GA tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 207 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

On Sunday, an upper shortwave will swing through TX as an area of
low pressure begins to organize in the NW Gulf. High clouds will
increase from west to east through the day over the region ahead
of the approaching shortwave disturbance. The low will traverse
eastward across the Gulf Sunday and then across southern FL Monday
night. Light showers spread into the area late Sunday night into
Monday with the best chances south of the I-10 corridor.
Temperatures will be just below seasonable with highs in the 60s
to low 70s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Dry and warm days are in store Tuesday and Wednesday as high
pressure builds over the Gulf. The next cold front then passes
through the area on Thursday. Shower activity will be mainly
isolated with this frontal passage due to lingering drier air
aloft. Temperatures will be above seasonable through Thursday with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s. Temperatures cool
down in the wake of the front on Friday with highs in the mid 60s
to low 70s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. With the warming
and moistening trend next week, fog potential is likely to return
during the early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Continued to advertise prevailing VFR conditions, although SREF
indicated 25-40% of MVFR ceilings at SGJ between 18-00z this
afternoon while other MOS guidance keeps VFR. Will continue to
monitor satellite, but advertised SCT030 with BKN050 at this
time.

Multi- layered cloudiness was spreading across the terminals
early this morning with low bases 4-6 kft under high cirrus. Mid
level clouds will increase from the west through midday with bases
8-10 kft agl as a broad, weak surface low approaches the southern
tier of the FL peninsula into the afternoon.

NNE winds will become more E after daybreak, then back NNW into
the evening as the surface low tracks east of the FL peninsula.
Drier NW winds will filter southward and decrease low level
clouds tonight with some lingering mid and high clouds. With
light winds and clearing skies, introduced some brief MVFR due to
BR at VQQ after 09z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

A broad surface low crosses central Florida late today and tracks
NE of the local waters Sunday. High pressure builds north of the
waters Monday as another area of low pressure approaches south FL.
This low will track east of the waters into Tuesday as surface
high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf mid-week.

Rip Currents: Extended the high rip current risk for NE FL beaches
through this evening giving continued NNE winds and elevated seas,
especially for locations south of JAX Beach to Flagler Beach.
Moderate rip current risk today for SE GA beaches and all local
beaches Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 207 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

River Flood Warnings continue for the Altamaha River at Baxley
and Charlotteville. The latest forecast shows Baxley reach Minor
flood stage Sunday morning and Charlotteville rising into Minor
flood stage Sunday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  35  63  42 /   0   0   0  20
SSI  59  43  62  47 /  10   0   0  20
JAX  64  41  67  46 /  10   0   0  20
SGJ  65  46  65  49 /  10   0   0  20
GNV  67  41  69  46 /   0   0   0  20
OCF  69  44  71  50 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$