Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

248
FXUS62 KJAX 061418
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1018 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE
(Rest of Today-tonight)...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Numerous to widespread showers over most of the area at this time,
with a juicy airmass in place today. Prevailing low level flow is from
the east through about 12 kft. PWATs are just over 2 inches on
the JAX sounding. There won`t be much heating today but some
embedded thunderstorms will be possible. Have included locally
heavy rainfall wording along the coastal areas today based on
several factors, and we feel that training bands of convection
will lead to heavy downpours and localized flooding. This is
supported not only by the low level convergence but upper level
divergence south of a 50-60 kt jet. We can`t rule out the need for
flood advisories or warnings if we get locally heavy rains
concentrated in some areas. Initially today, the locations prone
to heavy rains will be from near Jax northward into Brunswick GA.
This area of concern will shift southward into tonight and
actually diminish overnight in some areas as the low level winds
turn more northeasterly and some drier air works in from the
northeast across our northern GA zones. Have tweaked the highs a
bit down today given the cloud cover but overall little change
there.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Local interests, especially across NE FL and coastal SE GA, are
encouraged to prepare for another round of potential tropical cyclone
impacts by mid-week from what is now Tropical Storm Milton. Ahead
of Milton impacts, a local "Nor`easter" event will develop over
the next several days, increasing tides within the St. Johns River
basin and bringing rounds of gusty showers onshore and
deteriorating marine and surf zone conditions. This onshore flow
`Nor`easter` event ahead of any Milton impacts will set the stage
for increased tidal flooding inundation by mid-week for coastal
areas and the St. Johns River Basin (Moderate flood stage
potential) as well as increased flooding rainfall vulnerability
especially for portions of NE FL and the St. Johns River basin
where pre-Milton rainfall saturates grounds. Hazardous surf zone
conditions include a high rip current risk as well as building,
rough surf.

Increasing NE winds Tue into Tue night, again ahead of any Tropical
Cyclone wind field, could begin to cause additional tree and some
structure damage, especially to those already weakened by Helene.
Although the northern extent of any Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Force wind field is still uncertain, breezy and gusty NE winds are
expected across the majority of the forecast area, including
locations across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley
heavily impacted by Helene.

We encourage local interests to finalize stocking supply kits,
consider early pre-storm structure resilience like clearing out
gutters, securing potential wind blown debris, and moving items
vulnerable to tidal flooding to higher ground. If your shelter
location has increased vulnerability post-Helene, consider
reaching out to nearby friends or family to plan for an alternate
storm shelter location should Milton pose a threat. Please
routinely monitor official forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center (hurricanes.gov) and our regularly updated local briefings
provided at the NWS JAX link above.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A surface high pressure ridge will be centered to the northeast
Today. This high will weaken and move more toward the northeast
Tonight, as a cold front moves into the southeastern US. Onshore
flow will continue this period, with weak troughs in the flow over
the Atlantic helping to produce showers. A few thunderstorms will be
possible during the heating of the day this afternoon. As the ridge
axis moves further to the northeast, precipitation chances will
decrease over SE GA for Tonight.

With expected cloud coverage and showers, temperatures will be
cooler than normal Today. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 will
be common, with lows Tonight ranging from the mid 60s over inland
SE GA, to the mid 70s along the NE FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The cold front will sink into southeast GA and stall Monday, as a
trough extending east from Milton extends across south central FL.
The flow will be from the northeast Monday, placing the best
moisture for showers at the coast, and into NE FL, with inland SE GA
and Suwannee valley of NE FL largely dry. Temperatures Monday will
be warmest inland SE GA where more sunshine is expected. Highs
Monday will range from the mid 80s well inland, to the lower 80s
coast and for much of NE FL.

For Monday night, the cold front over southeastern US will wash out,
as stronger high pressure builds to the northwest. A trough will
remain across south central FL extending from Milton. Northeast flow
will keep the best chance for showers across NE FL, with drier air
moving south into SE GA and inland NE FL. Lows Monday night will
range from the mid 60s inland SE GA, to the mid 70s NE FL coast.

High pressure will remain to the north on Tuesday as Milton makes
its way into the central Gulf, and trough extends east from it
across southern FL. Moist onshore flow from the northeast, will keep
showers in the forecast for coastal SE GA, and across NE FL. Highs
in the middle 80s will be common Tuesday.

Into Tuesday night, Milton will continue its track toward the west
coast of FL, while high pressure remains to the north. The gradient
between these two systems will result in increasing winds,
especially at the coast. Shower chances will increase from south to
north through the night. Lows will range from the mid 60s over
SE GA, to the upper 60s to lower 70s NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Milton will greatly affect the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe of
this forecast. There is some uncertainty as to the track and speed
of the system, but confidence is increasing for the storm to make
landfall on the west coast of FL Wednesday, then track east
northeast across the peninsula Wednesday night. At this point
interests in NE FL and SE GA should continue to monitor for the
latest updates on this system, as adjustments to forecast track and
timing can be expected, and make necessary precautions.

For Thursday night, the system is currently forecast to be tracking
away to the east, as high pressure builds from the north northwest.
Drier and cooler air will advect across the area throughout the
night.

High pressure will be centered to the north Friday through Saturday.
Moist onshore flow from the northeast will result in a few showers
across NE FL, with greatest chance at the coast.

Temperatures will be below normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Shower chances and restrictions in stratus continue
through the day today with thunderstorm chances during the
afternoon. Stratus will continue to lower during the afternoon,
with restrictions common. Restrictions are expected to continue into
the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

High pressure will be northeast of the region Today. The region will
be between a trough across south central FL and a front across the
southeastern US. Tropical system named Milton is expected to move
into the central Gulf Tuesday, with high pressure to the north.
Milton is currently expected to make landfall over the west coast of
FL Wednesday, then move east northeast across FL. There is still
uncertainty in the exact track and timing of Milton, but impacts
from Milton are expected across the area. The storm is expected to
move east of area waters late Thursday, but elevated conditions will
remain on its back side.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 448 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Rivers: Major river flooding is forecast to impact the Alapaha River
in Statenville later today. The Altamaha river at Charlotteville,
Baxley and Doctortown was falling from crests in Minor flood
stage with the lower Altamaha River into Minor flood stage at
Everett City later today and nearing a crest just below Moderate
Flood stage mid-week. The Satilla is expected to rise into Minor
stage at Atkinson late Monday. As flood waters travel down the
Suwannee River, backwater flooding up the Santa Fe including at
Three Rivers Estates to Minor flood stage is expected this morning
with further rise toward Moderate flood stage mid to late week.
As a reminder, river forecasts for these points only include 48
hrs of forecast rainfall.

Tidal Flooding: The combination of persistent onshore flow and the
approach of the annual high Spring Tides mid-month will continue
to elevate local water level departures for tidal locations this
week. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the St. Johns
River basin from downtown JAX to Lake George through Monday
evening due to Minor, mainly nuisance type, tidal flooding around
daily high tides. Water levels will continue to rise as tides are
trapped within the St. Johns basin this week, and there increasing
chances that water levels could reach the "Moderate" stage within
the River basin and coastal locations mid-week as Milton
approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  64  84  62 /  50  10   0   0
SSI  80  72  81  72 /  80  30   0  10
JAX  79  71  82  69 /  80  50  10  10
SGJ  80  73  81  73 /  80  60  40  30
GNV  78  70  80  69 /  80  50  40  10
OCF  80  71  79  71 /  80  60  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ033-038-132-
     137-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$