Palm Bay, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

477
FXUS62 KMLB 180021
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
821 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

- Breezy East winds Friday and Saturday will produce fire weather
  sensitive conditions

- A slow warming trend is forecast through the weekend

- Very low rain chances through next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

No significant changes to current forecast. East coast sea breeze
pushed well inland, past Lake county, and now with sunset, the
sea breeze circulation will diminish and winds will decrease.
Onshore flow is forecast to persist along the coast which will
hold min temps to the mid and upper 60s there but dip as low as
the mid and upper 50s over the normally cooler inland locations.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Currently-Friday...Dry weather is expected through the overnight
and on Friday as high pressure (~1030mb) gradually builds east
over the western Atlantic into Friday with the mid/upper level
ridge axis expected to build over the Gulf of America and the
southeastern US. Winds are expected to increase into the afternoon
from the east at 12-18mph with gusts to 20-28mph with onshore
flow in place. Low temperatures in the 60s are expected along the
coast with the mid 50s to low 60s forecast over the interior of
east central Florida to the west of I-95. Highs in the upper 70s
to low 80s are expected along the coast on Friday with the 80s
forecast over the interior west of I-95.

The Weekend... High pressure (~1028mb) is expected to build over
the western Atlantic. Dry weather is forecast to continue with the
associated mid/upper level ridge axis over the eastern Gulf of
America and the southeastern US coupled with PWATs in the
0.60-0.90" range. Winds are expected to increase into the
afternoon and evening from the east at 12-20mph with gusts to
20-28mph with onshore flow in place on Saturday and Sunday.
Afternoon highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected
over coastal locations with the low to upper 80s (near 90 degrees
over the western interior of east central Florida on Sunday). Low
temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees are forecast over
coastal locations with the upper 50s to mid 60s forecast over the
interior west of I-95.

Monday-Wednesday... Moisture is expected to slowly increase early
to mid week next week as the mid/upper level ridge axis shifts
east over the western Atlantic. The mid/upper level ridge is then
expected to weaken and shift south into Tuesday as a major
shortwave trough deepens over the northeastern CONUS. Global
models are in good agreement that PWATs will rise into the
0.90-1.20" range Tuesday and Wednesday with onshore flow in place.
Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast into the
afternoon Tuesday over coastal locations and Wednesday afternoon
over all of east central Florida. East winds are expected to
increase to around 8-15mph each afternoon. Afternoon highs in the
low to upper 80s are forecast with temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s forecast over the western interior of east central
Florida on Monday. Highs are expected to warm into the low to
upper 80s near the coast and the upper 80s to low 90s west of I-95
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the 60s to around 70 degrees are
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Friday... Boating conditions are expected to become poor into
Friday as high pressure (~1030mb) builds over the western
Atlantic. East winds at 10-15kts tonight are expected to increase
into Friday at 15-20kts. 2-4ft seas are forecast with up to 5ft
over the Gulf Stream.

Saturday-Monday... Poor boating conditions are expected to improve
Sunday and into Monday as a mid/upper level ridge shifts east-
southeast over the western Atlantic. East winds at 15-20kts are
forecast to decrease and veer southeast into Saturday afternoon
at 10-15kts. 3-5ft seas are forecast to decrease to 2-4ft into
Sunday evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Winds will maintain an easterly
component, decreasing 5 knots interior and 5-10 knots coastal
terminals. On Fri, East winds will be a little stronger,
increasing 12-15 knots gusting 20-25 knots which will produce
moderate crosswinds at MCO during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Warm and dry conditions will continue to promote fire
sensitivities late this week. Min RHs are expected to fall below
critical values across the interior this afternoon between 20-35%.
East to northeast winds around 5-10 mph are expected this
afternoon and are forecast to locally increase to 15 mph along
the sea breeze boundary this afternoon. Wind speeds will be
monitored into this early evening and if confidence increases in
wind speeds to 15mph, a Red Flag Warning will likely be issued
mainly over inland Volusia, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and
Okeechobee counties. Fire sensitive conditions are expected over
Brevard, inland, St. Lucie, and inland Martin counties with RH
values in the low 30s to mid 40s and east-northeast winds at
10-15mph. High pressure strengthens over the Atlantic Friday which
will increase onshore winds to 15-20 mph through the weekend.
However, min RH values increase to 35-50% Friday and into the
weekend. Minimum RH values between 35-40% are forecast over the
interior into early next week. No precip is forecast through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  61  81  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  85  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  81  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  63  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  61  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  84  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly