Orlando, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS62 KMLB 061333 CCA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
933 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE... (Through Tonight)
Issued at 900 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical Storm Milton, in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, is
  expected to become a hurricane as it threatens Florida by midweek.
  The potential for strong winds and other severe weather hazards
  is increasing.

- A Flood Watch has been issued for East Central Florida through
  Wednesday night. Periods of heavy rain are forecast both before
  and with Milton.

- Beach and boating conditions are becoming hazardous. A High
  Risk of rip currents and rough surf persist due to long period
  swells.

What a difference a day makes. We already have high coverage of
showers across our area this morning, with a few locations already
getting in on an inch or two of rain along the coast. As
suspected, PWs have spiked well over 2" as of the latest XMR
sounding (06/10Z).

Despite overall high rain chances (>75%) for both today and
tonight, a rather complicated setup is revealed once you start to
slice through the guidance and pick out the mesoscale features.
It`s important to do so, however, as we try to nail down what
areas could see repeated rounds of heavy rain leading to
flooding. We have solid moisture convergence along the coast right
now, but the latest data we have suggests that may relax a bit
this afternoon, particularly along the Space Coast where a
localized flood threat is already developing.

A diffuse boundary up near Volusia Co. should continue to spawn
occasionally heavy downpours through the day before becoming lost
in the easterly flow. Then, all the guidance has a sharpening
front over SoFlo tonight out ahead of a disturbance in the Gulf
(well ahead of Milton). It`s near and north of the boundary where
renewed bands of moderate to heavy rain are most favored tonight
and into tomorrow morning. For us, this is expected to focus the
excessive rainfall threat over the Treasure Coast and Lake O
region. Just from a pattern recognition perspective, the potential
for isolated 5"+ amounts will exist along this boundary through
tomorrow. And more is unfortunately to come later this week once
we deal with Milton.

Here`s the takeaway: those residing in flood-prone areas,
especially along the coast, should remain vigilant and listen for
possible flood advisories or warnings. Remember, a Flood Watch
goes into effect today and will last through early Thursday.

Hazardous beach/surf conditions will persist due to an easterly
long period swell from distant hurricane Kirk. Expect numerous,
strong, life-threatening rip currents and increasing rough surf!
Entering the water is strongly discouraged!

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Monday-Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Mon-Tue...A weak wave of low pressure is forecast to ride across
the aforementioned surface trough on Mon, as mid-level energy
moves across the area continuing the threat for higher PoPs and
flooding risk due to repeated rounds of heavy precip for some
areas. The boundary will become quasi-stationary across Lake
Okeechobee by Tue. PWAT values will continue to soar towards 2.50
inches. We continue to keep PoPs in the 70pct range as the Flood
Watch continues. In the meantime, TC Milton will continue to push
ENE across the Gulf gaining both strength and speed during this
timeframe. By Tue evening, Milton could obtain major hurricane
status as it approaches the west central Gulf. Moderate onshore
winds will persist across ECFL. Highs in the U70s to L80s on Mon
and L80s (few M80s) on Tue. Overnight mins in the L-M70s and U70s
across the barrier islands.

Wed-Thu...Milton, likely a strong/powerful hurricane by this time,
will approach the Nature Coast late Wed aftn-early Wed evening
continuing across the central FL peninsula Wed evening-night,
emerging off of the central FL coast ahead of daybreak Thu morning.
For ECFL, deteriorating weather conditions are forecast in the
form of heavy rainfall and increasing gusty winds, esp in
rainbands. A few tornadoes will also be in play on Wed. The most
likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds is Wed morning
to early afternoon. This could still shift either way by a few
hours as model guidance improves for both timing and track.
Rainfall totals from Sun thru early Thu could approach between
4-8" (locally 10") near I-4 corridor northward and including
southward across north-central Brevard. Elsewhere 3-6" rainfall
amounts and potentially locally higher amounts trend southward
across the Treasure Coast and Osceola/Okeechobee counties. The
time is now to enact your local hurricane plan and ensure you have
supplies, and everything else necessary to ride out this storm!

Fri-Sun...As Milton departs drier/cooler air will slide southward
down the peninsula with lower rain chances and northerly winds
veering NE into the weekend. Initial breezy/gusty winds will also
gradually diminish into the weekend. Highs for Fri, U70s to around
80F across the I-4 corridor and L80s southward. On Sat/Sun temps
begin to creep back toward the L-M80s. Lows Sat-Sun morning`s
cooler and in the U60s across the interior (perhaps few M60s) and
L70s at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Today-Tonight...A weak surface boundary will sag south and
into the local waters thru late today. SCT-NMRS showers and ISOLD-
SCT lightning storms will be forecast. ERLY winds 10-15 kts. Seas
5-6 ft building to 7 ft offshore by tonight. Cautionary
Statements necessary today with Advisories likely tonight
offshore. Conditions will become hazardous near inlets during
the outgoing tide early this morning and again later this
afternoon and early evening due to the ERLY long period swell.

Mon-Thu...Boating will become increasingly hazardous. Deep moisture
and high precip chances ahead of TC Milton which will push across
the local waters Wed night-early Thu. ERLY winds 10-15 kts on Mon
increase 15-20 kts Tue. Tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions
developing on Wed, depending on Milton`s track from the west.
Seas continuing to build 5-7 ft on Mon/Tue, increasing to 6-10 ft
Wed, and higher Wed night-Thu with Milton pushing across the
peninsula and off of the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 724 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VCSH becomes -SHRA for much of the day beyond 15z at most
terminals. VCTS was included to cover an iso TSRA, though the
highest chances for this activity will be focused along the coast
and mainly south. MVFR/IFR conditions will settle in after 18z-21z
and AMDs are likely through the day. Onshore flow 10-14 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt possible at the coastal terminals. Wind speeds
decrease after 00z but kept at least VCSH going into Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  73  82  74 /  80  70  60  40
MCO  80  73  79  73 /  80  70  70  40
MLB  83  74  81  74 /  80  80  70  60
VRB  84  74  82  74 /  80  80  70  60
LEE  80  73  80  72 /  80  60  50  30
SFB  81  72  80  73 /  80  70  70  40
ORL  81  73  80  74 /  80  70  70  40
FPR  83  74  81  74 /  80  80  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-
     141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Schaper