Orlando, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS62 KMLB 160532
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
132 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

- Sensitive fire weather conditions are anticipated to persist
  across east central Florida through much of this week.

- High pressure dominates across the area through most of the
  period, keeping rain chances below 10 percent.

- A warming trend commences early this week. High temps reach the
  mid/upper 80s today ahead of an approaching weak cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

The KMLB radar is mostly quiet this evening, however a couple
smoke plumes could be seen on radar earlier in the afternoon from
ongoing fires. A cold front, currently draped over northern
Florida, will push southward through the local area late tonight.
While conditions look to remain unimpressive for activity out
ahead of the front, a brief increase in moisture (PW values around
1.0- 1.2") could lead to the development of some sprinkles late
tonight. The greatest potential for these sprinkles to develop
will be from the Orlando metro region to Cape Canaveral
northward. As the front moves farther south, the front will
weaken and lose some of that moisture, causing conditions to be
drier to the south. Southwest winds at 5-10 mph tonight will veer
north to northwest behind the front as high pressure begins to
build over the area. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly
below normal for this time of year, with overnight lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

Tonight...Surface high pressure continues to push eastward
through the remainder of today as a cold front begins to approach
Florida late tonight. Overall, conditions do not look overly
impressive for activity out ahead of the front, though a brief
surge in moisture (PWATs around 1.2 inches) could lead to the
development of some light sprinkles late tonight, particularly
from the Orlando metro region to the Cape and areas northward. As
the front moves farther south, it begins to weaken and lose some
of that moisture, which will keep conditions drier to the south.
Behind the front, an area of high pressure will begin to build,
with winds veering from the west to out of the north. Overnight
lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.

Wednesday-Monday (previous)...Aloft, weak troughiness slides
seaward, away from the eastern CONUS, as shortwave ridging pushes
eastward across the Gulf and over the FL peninsula (Fri overnight-
Sat) and out into the western Atlc on Sun. At the surface, the
weak cold front continues to slide down the peninsula Wed into
south FL, with high pressure returning Wed afternoon/Thu, then
pushing into the western Atlc with associated east-west oriented
ridge axis remaining just north of central FL into the weekend.
Continue to keep the extended dry as any organized weather systems
and associated mid/upper support remain well north of the FL
peninsula.

Briefly cooler Wed-Fri, but still around climo, with U70s along the
coast and L80s (few "mid") across the interior. The warming trend
continues Sat-Mon with 80s nearly areawide, perhaps a few L90s well
inland Sun/Mon. The latest cold front from earlier in the week will
reinforce drier air, with low afternoon min RH each day, which will
continue to present a heightened fire danger -even with the return
of onshore flow, esp into the interior. Overnight lows pleasant Thu
morning (post- frontal), 50s most everywhere - perhaps L60s at the
coast, then M-U50s to L60s Fri/Sat mornings & generally 60s just
about areawide Sun-Tue mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

High pressure slides eastward across the Atlantic through the
remainder today as a cold front approaches the local waters late
tonight into early Wednesday. Light sprinkles will be possible north
of the Cape, diminishing as the front moves farther south. A brief
period of poor boating conditions are anticipated, with westerly
winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots out ahead of the front and
veering to out of the north behind the front. Seas respond by
briefly building to 5 feet across the offshore waters. Small craft
should exercise caution overnight.

Behind the front, an area of high pressure is forecast to build,
with drier air moving in across the local waters. Rain chances are
anticipated to remain below 10 percent through the remainder of this
week and into the weekend, with generally favorable boating
conditions forecast. Winds are forecast to become onshore late this
week, remaining below 15 knots through the weekend. Seas of 2 to 4
feet will persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions prevailing. A cold front passes southward through
the area into the early afternoon. Westerly winds becoming
northerly behind the front. Then, the east coast sea breeze
develops by 17Z along the coast, veering winds NE. This feature
will progress inland through the afternoon hours, reaching KMCO by
around 22Z and increasing winds to 10-14kts. The highest winds
will be along the coast, with gusts up to 20kts. The sea breeze is
not forecast to reach KLEE, with northerly winds continuing
there. Light NE winds developing area-wide after 0Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025

A cold front will move across Florida tonight into early
Wednesday, with minimal rain chances forecast out ahead of it. A
drier air mass moves in behind the front, with minimum RH values
falling into the 20 to 35 percent range across the interior
Wednesday afternoon and the 25 to 40 percent range on Thursday
afternoon. This will allow for continued drying of fuels, with
sensitive fire weather conditions anticipated across east central
Florida. Winds are forecast to remain below critical thresholds.
Minimum RH values are anticipated to gradually recover as
persistent onshore flow advects some moisture towards the area,
with values falling between 35 to 45 percent across the interior
through at least Sunday. Winds are still forecast to remain below
critical thresholds, though the advancement onshore of the east
coast sea breeze in the afternoon could lead to some enhancement
locally to the winds. Rain is not forecast from Wednesday through
at least this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  56  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  83  57  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  62  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  80  61  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  81  55  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  82  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  83  59  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  80  61  79  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Leahy