Orlando, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

843
FXUS62 KMLB 040600
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
100 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

- Cold temperatures are forecast through Wednesday, with wind
  chill values in the 30s and 40s Wednesday morning.

- Patchy to areas of frost forecast across portions of the
  interior Wednesday morning. A Frost Advisory is in effect for
  Lake and inland Volusia Counties.

- Poor to hazardous marine conditions will persist through
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A reinforcing, dry cold front has shifted southward through the
area, and will maintain northerly winds around 5-10 mph across
the region. This weaker northerly flow at the surface combined
with clear to mostly clear skies and much drier airmass will lead
to another chilly night. Low temperatures are again forecast to be
around 15 degrees below normal, falling to the mid 30s to mid
40s. Areas of frost are forecast to develop late tonight through
early morning Wednesday across Lake and inland Volusia counties
where coldest temperatures are expected into tonight, and a Frost
Advisory is in effect for this area. However, still can`t rule
out some patchy frost development across normally colder, wind-
sheltered spots across the interior where temps dip below 40
degrees. While wind speeds will be relatively lighter, they will
still be able to produce wind chill values in the 30s through
early morning Wednesday. Forecast is on track, with no changes
planned.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Rest of Today-Wednesday...A weak, dry cold front will continue to
push through the local area into this evening, bringing another
surge of cold, dry air into east central Florida. One more night
of cold temperatures are forecast before a warming trend begins.
Until then, lows are forecast in the mid to upper 30s over the
interior and lower to mid-40s along the coast. It will feel very
chilly once again, as winds produce wind chill values in the 30s
for nearly all of the forecast area. Patchy frost will be possible
north and west of I-4 and in southern Osceola County. However,
areas of frost are once again forecast for Lake and inland Volusia
Counties. A Frost Advisory has been issued for tonight into early
Wednesday morning.

A cold start to the morning will see some warming into the
afternoon, as high pressure builds into the Southeast.
Temperatures will remain below normal, as northerly winds
continue. However, a warming trend will begin, with highs forecast
in the mid to upper 60s. Far southern portions of the forecast
area could even realize 70. Overnight lows Wednesday night will
warm more dramatically and are forecast in the mid to upper 40s
for most of the area. Rural locations in northern Lake and Inland
Volusia Counties look to see lows in the lower 40s.

Thursday-Friday...High pressure breaks down and moves farther into
the Atlantic Thursday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system north of
the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through the Deep South.
Models are in good agreement that this front will be relatively
weak by the time it makes it to east central Florida sometime
later on Thursday and into Thursday night. No precipitation is
forecast. The most noticeable changes will likely be westerly
winds on Thursday ahead of the front. Then, northerly winds return
by Friday. The warming trend will briefly stall into Friday,
though the airmass does look to be less cold and dry than the
previous one earlier in the week. High temperatures return to
nearer-normal on Thursday in the lower to mid-70s. By Friday,
areas along and north of I-4 will likely struggle to reach 70 once
again, though areas to the south will see the lower to mid-70s.

Saturday-Monday...High pressure centered across the southeast US
on Saturday will move offshore Sunday. As the high pressure
continues to move further offshore on Monday, a shortwave trough
will move into the Deep South. Locally, northerly winds around
5-10 mph will persist on Saturday and Sunday before becoming
southeast on Monday. Temperatures will warm through the period, as
high pressure dominates the local pattern. Seasonable highs this
weekend will warm to above normal by early next week. Highs in
the lower to mid-70s Saturday and Sunday will become the lower 80s
by Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be on the upward trend,
warming from the upper 40s/50s over the weekend to the upper
50s/lower 60s early in the week. Mostly dry conditions prevailing,
though an approaching mid-level trough could produce a few showers
Tuesday, especially across the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Rest of Today-Wednesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions
today will linger into Wednesday, as high pressure over the
Southeast US drifts towards the Atlantic. Northerly winds around
20kts offshore into this evening will lead to seas of 5-8ft in the
Gulf Stream. Seas will improve into Wednesday morning. However,
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect and have been extended
through mid-Wednesday morning for the offshore waters south of the
Cape. Small craft should exercise caution over the nearshore
waters.

While northeasterly winds will have decreased to below 15kts
Wednesday, seas up to 5ft will linger offshore, creating less than
favorable conditions for small craft. Nearshore, seas 3-4ft.
Precipitation is not forecast.

Thursday-Sunday...Winds become westerly Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Meanwhile, seas will continue to subside,
becoming 2-3ft. Then, northerly winds return Friday behind the
front, though look to remain around 15kts. Seas will respond,
building to up to 5ft once again. This weekend, northeast winds
become onshore through the period, remaining around 10kts or less.
Seas 3-4ft. Dry conditions look to persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 100 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High pressure over
the SE US this morning will settle southward over central FL
Thu. Winds will veer out of the N/NE to NE Wed 7-9 knots. This
onshore flow will brings SCT to ocnly BKN marine stratocu onshore
the coastal terminals with bases 040-050AGL. No SHRA expected as
moisture layer is too thin. A light offshore (W/SW) flow will
develop Thu ahead of the next cool front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Today-Thursday...Very dry air lingers over the area this
afternoon, with min RH values of 30-40% leading to very sensitive
fire weather conditions today. There will be some improvement into
late week, with min RH values increasing. However, they will
continue to be as low as 40-45% through Thursday. Northerly winds
around 10mph over the interior and 10-15mph along the coast will
become 10mph or less Wednesday. Then, winds are forecast to veer
westerly Thursday ahead of an approaching front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  45  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  68  48  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  69  50  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  70  50  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  67  46  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  68  46  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  69  49  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  70  50  76  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041-044-144.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Kelly