Melbourne, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXUS62 KMLB 150144
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
944 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

- Dry and increasingly warm conditions forecast for East Central
  Florida as afternoon highs push well into the 90s this weekend
  and early next week.

- A Moderate HeatRisk will affect individuals sensitive to heat,
  especially those without effective cooling and/ or adequate
  hydration.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

No changes needed for the evening update, as forecast remains on
track. East coast sea breeze has shifted well inland, but with dry
airmass in place rain chances remain out of the forecast. Ridge
axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended
across FL overnight, with winds becoming light and variable and
skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. These conditions will be
favorable for patchy fog development late tonight through early
Thursday morning. However, currently there is not much support in
MOS and hi-res model guidance for fog formation. Have kept patchy
fog wording in for normally fog prone locations NW of I-4 and
across the Treasure Coast, but not confident enough to add it to
additional areas at this time. Even without fog development, the
light winds will allow any smoke from active or smoldering brush
fires to settle through late tonight, which could lead to
localized limited visibilities on nearby roadways.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Current-Tonight... Temperatures are observed in the low to mid
80s early this afternoon, and areas across the interior are
already starting to touch the upper 80s. Calm conditions are
expected through the evening and overnight with lows falling into
the mid to upper 60s. However, a few areas will struggle to fall
below 70. Will be monitoring conditions for patchy fog development
overnight as winds become light and variable and dew point
depressions near zero. Current model guidance has suggested the
greatest potential for fog across portions of the western
peninsula, and have introduced patchy fog across areas of Lake
county should any fog drift eastward. Have also added patchy fog
along the Treasure Coast, as the forecasted conditions generally
favor periods of ground fog there.

Thursday-Friday... A mid to upper level ridge axis builds eastward
across the Gulf late week, stretching across central Florida by
Friday. At the surface, weak high pressure extends across the Gulf
and the central Atlantic. A period of hot and dry weather will
persist. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s Thursday warm
into the mid 90s areawide on Friday. Light southwest winds become
variable at times in vicinity of the surface ridge axis. Muggy
morning temperatures are forecast to range the mid 60s to low 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday... High pressure holds control through the extended
forecast. A period of above normal temperatures continues with no
mentionable rain chances. A Moderate HeatRisk is expected to
build Saturday and into early next week as afternoon highs peak in
the mid to upper 90s. A sagging surface boundary across the
southeast U.S. will increase moisture from Sunday onward
resulting in peak heat index values between 100-105. This level of
heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those
without effective cooling and/ or adequate hydration. Morning
temperatures remain mild, mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Tonight-Sunday... High pressure holds control promoting favorable
boating conditions through the period. South to southwest winds back
south to southeast each afternoon while generally remaining 10 kts
or less. Seas of 2-3 ft persist into early next week. Dry with no
mentionable rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions are generally forecast tonight into Thursday. High
pressure extending across the West Atlantic and Florida will
maintain dry conditions through the period. Lighter winds tonight
may allow for some patchy fog development leading to tempo
IFR/MVFR conditions, mainly between 9-13Z. Greatest potential for
any fog is NW of I-4 and have kept a tempo group for MVFR
visibilities at KLEE. However, not much model support elsewhere
to include in the TAFs at this time. However, can`t rule out
additional terminals seeing patchy fog late tonight through early
Thursday morning.

Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming S/SW 5-7
knots late morning, and then winds switching to E/SE along the
coast up to around 10 knots with the east coast sea breeze in the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  92  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  68  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  70  89  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  89  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  68  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  68  94  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  70  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Weitlich