Melbourne, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

372
FXUS62 KMLB 040704
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
304 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions will exist across the
  waters today, with a High Risk for rip currents at area beaches.

- Warming trend takes place this week, becoming hot by midweek,
  with highs back in the low to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday,
  nearing record values.

- Isolated to scattered showers and potentially a storm or two
  will continue today, mainly across southern portions of east
  central Florida (rain chances 20-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure just offshore the Mid-
Atlantic coast will extend across north Florida today, with frontal
boundary remaining stalled just south of Florida. This will generate
a breezy onshore flow across the region today, with east-northeast
winds increasing up to 15-20 mph, and gusts 20-30 mph, with
strongest winds at coastal locations south of the Cape. Lingering
moisture (PW 1.1-1.3") and instability (CAPE of 250-500 J/kg) north
of the front will continue to generate isolated to scattered showers
and potentially a storm or two, mainly south of a line from Lake
Kissimmee to the Cape, with PoPs around 20-40%. Onshore winds and
cloud cover, especially across southern areas will keep highs in the
upper 70s/near 80 at the coast and low 80s across the interior. Lows
overnight will range from the mid 60s to low 70s at the coast and
low to mid 60s across the interior.

Tuesday-Thursday...High pressure ridge axis at the surface will
continue to push southward across the area through midweek and mid
level ridge across the Gulf will nudge its way northeast across the
FL peninsula. This will lead to a drier weather pattern and a
warming trend that will lead to hotter than normal conditions
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the 80s on Tuesday, warm to the
upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday, and low to mid 90s on Thursday. Max
temps will be near record values for interior sites on Wednesday,
and for much of the area on Thursday, as developing low level
offshore flow will delay or limit the east coast sea breeze from
forming. A slight (20%) chance for showers and storms will continue
for mainly the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County on Tuesday.
Otherwise, rain chances remain out of the forecast Wednesday and
Thursday.

Friday-Sunday...Model differences begin to take shape into late week
and weekend. Front moving into the Southeast U.S. is generally
forecast to push southward into the area and then lift back
northward before stalling near to north of Florida. However, GFS is
a little faster with the arrival of the front then the ECMWF. The
front will increase moisture and generally lead to increasing shower
and storm chances, with PoPs currently ranging from 20-40% Friday
and up to 30-50% into the weekend. The arrival of the front as well
as increasing cloud cover and return of rain chances should lower
max temps slightly. However, highs are forecast to remain near to
above normal (mid 80s to low 90s) through the weekend.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Today-Tonight...Ridge axis of high pressure offshore the Mid-
Atlantic coast will remain extended across north Florida today as a
front remains stalled across the Florida Straits. This will generate
a moderate to fresh onshore breeze today, leading to poor to
hazardous boating conditions across the waters. Wind speeds will
range from 15-25 knots across much of the waters this morning,
except 10-15 knots across the nearshore waters of Volusia County.
Wind speeds then gradually decrease, becoming 10-15 knots across the
adjacent Atlantic into tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory for seas up to 7-8 feet will remain in effect
for today for the offshore Brevard County waters and Treasure Coast
waters. Small craft should exercise caution for the nearshore waters
of Brevard County and offshore marine zone of Volusia County for
seas up to 6 feet. The onshore breeze and lingering moisture north
of the front will continue to generate scattered showers and
isolated storms, mainly south of the Cape.

Tue-Fri...Boating conditions improve as ridge axis settles southward
across the area through midweek. Ridge axis then eventually shifts
south of Lake Okeechobee by late week as a front moves into the
southeast U.S and eventually into central FL Friday. E/SE winds
around 10-15 knots through Tuesday/Wednesday veer southerly into
Thursday and then eventually become N/NE behind the front into
Friday. Seas fall to 2-4 feet for the remainder of the week, with
conditions turning drier and warmer through midweek. Showers and
storms chances return (20-30%) Friday as weak front moves into the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

MVFR CIGs continue at KVRB-KSUA through the early afternoon, then
finally lift/clear between 17Z-20Z. Low to moderate (20-40%)
chances of SHRA from KMLB-KSUA tonight gradually decrease
southward through the morning and afternoon, with mostly dry
conditions forecast by around 20Z. Otherwise dry/VFR conditions
forecast at ECFL terminals. Light NNE/NE winds tonight increase to
8-13 kts in the morning, then further increase in the afternoon
to 12-17 kts with gusts 20-25 from NE-ENE, before subsiding to 10
kts or less in the late evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Breezy winds out of the east-northeast are forecast across the area
today. Sustained speeds up to 15-20 mph and gusts 20-30 mph are
forecast into the afternoon, with strongest winds at the coast. The
onshore flow is forecast to keep RH values above critical values
this afternoon, but Min RH values are expected to drop as low as the
upper 30s to mid 40s northwest of I-4. Isolated to scattered onshore
moving showers and isolated storms are possible today, mainly south
of the Cape. Onshore winds diminish tomorrow, with speeds around 10
mph in the afternoon. Lowest Min RH values will be well inland
across Lake County in the low 40s tomorrow afternoon. Rain chances
also diminish, with only a slight chance for showers and storms
across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Dispersion values
will be good to very good both today and Tuesday.

Hotter than normal temperatures are forecast into midweek, with
highs in the low to mid 90s. This will lead to more sensitive fire
weather conditions as Min RH values fall as low as the mid 30s to
low 40s across the interior both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
Winds favor a sea breeze pattern through the period, with
southwesterly flow keeping the breeze pinned to the coast
Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites Wednesday, May 6th
and Thursday, May 7th:

Site           May 6        May 7
Daytona      95 (1955)    93 (1952)
Leesburg     93 (2007)    94 (1984)
Sanford      95 (1952)    94 (2009)
Orlando      98 (1922)    98 (1915)
Melbourne    94 (2022)    91 (1980)
Vero Beach   95 (2022)    93 (1947)
Fort Pierce  95 (2022)    95 (1906)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  64  82  67 /   0  10  10   0
MCO  82  65  86  69 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  79  68  83  70 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  79  67  83  69 /  30  20  20   0
LEE  84  63  87  68 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  83  63  87  67 /   0  10  10   0
ORL  83  65  87  69 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  79  67  83  68 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Haley