Melbourne, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

914
FXUS62 KMLB 112008
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 357
PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

- High fire danger this afternoon across Greater Orlando and
surrounding areas due to increasing winds and low humidity. High
fire danger is forecast Saturday afternoon and evening over east
central Florida with sensitive to near critical fire weather
conditions expected Sunday and into next week

- Warmer today ahead of a cold front which will deliver generally
offshore moving strong to severe isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms tonight, especially over the northern portions of
east Central Florida. Cooler mornings return this weekend

- Drought conditions are expected to worsen as a long period of
mainly dry weather is forecast through mid-April

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Currently-Saturday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over
east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies. A cold front is situated over the
southeastern US and northern Florida which extends from low pressure
(~1012mb) over the North Carolina coast. Temperatures are currently
in the mid 70s to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 40s to near 60.
Winds are out of the west-southwest at 5-15mph with gusts to around
20mph over the inland counties. Winds have begun to back southeast
at 5-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph along the east central Florida
Atlantic coast with the east coast sea breeze.

Isolated to scattered offshore moving showers (20-50%) and lightning
storms are expected tonight mainly after 8pm with the greatest
potential for any strong storms along and to the north of Melbourne
to Lake Kissimmee from 9pm to 2am. Isolated to widely scattered
showers (20-30%) and lightning storms are forecast to the south of
the aforementioned areas from 1am to 5am. Hi-res guidance indicates
that instability will increase as the cold front approaches east
central Florida with MUCAPE at 500-1,200 J/kg coupled with 40-60kts
of 0-6km bulk shear and 500mb temperatures at -14C to -18C.
Additionally, moisture has the potential to be a limiting factor for
severe storm potential with forecast PWATs in the 0.9-1.25" range
tonight. Any strong lightning storms that develop will be capable of
wind gusts up to 40-50mph, occasional to frequent lightning, and
moderate to brief heavy rainfall. A Marginal Risk for severe storms
exists over Lake, Volusia, Seminole, and northwestern Orange
counties where the potential exists for wind gusts up to 60mph (5-
14% risk) and hail up to 1" diameter (5-14%). Low temperatures in
the low 50s to low 60s are expected with partly to mostly cloudy
skies.

Dry weather is expected on Saturday behind the cold front as broad
high pressure (~1022mb) builds over the eastern US. North-northwest
winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are expected. Cooler
temperatures are forecast with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees
under

Sunday-Monday... Dry weather will continue Sunday and into next week
as high pressure (~1020mb) builds over the southeastern US before
becoming centered over the state of Florida and the western Atlantic
on Monday. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s are forecast
Sunday. A warming trend is expected into next week with highs in the
low to upper 80s on Monday. North-northeast winds at 5-10mph are
forecast Sunday. Generally light south-southwest winds are expected
to increase and back east-southeast at 10-15mph into the afternoon
on Monday as the east coast sea breeze moves inland mainly east of
the Orlando metro. Lows in the upper 40s to near 60 degrees are
forecast each morning.

Tuesday-Thursday... A cold front is forecast to move east- southeast
over central Florida Tuesday night. Guidance indicates that the
front will extend from low pressure (~992mb) over the northeastern
US and southern Canada Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Global
models don`t show much precipitation with this front, however the
conditions will be similar to Friday night`s cold front with PWATs
in the 0.90-1.25" range, as well as low instability and moderate to
high bulk shear. Therefore, isolated showers (~20%) are forecast
Tuesday night into early Wednesday mainly north of Melbourne to Lake
Kissimmee. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees are
forecast Tuesday, the mid 70s to mid 80s are forecast Wednesday, and
the upper 70s to upper 80s on Thursday. Lows generally in the 50s to
mid 60s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Currently-Saturday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions are
expected into Saturday as a cold front moves east-southeast over the
east central Florida Atlantic waters tonight into Saturday morning.
Isolated to scattered (20-70%) offshore moving showers and lightning
storms are forecast mainly after 9pm. Any strong storms that develop
will be capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts to 40-50mph, and
small hail. A Marginal Risk for severe storms exists over nearshore
Volusia county where the potential exists for wind gusts up to 60mph
(5-14% risk) and hail up to 1" in diameter (5-14% risk). South-
southwest winds at 10-15kts are expected to increase and veer
northwest into Saturday morning at 15-20kts. 3-5ft seas are expected
to increase to up to 6ft over the Gulf Stream overnight into
Saturday where Small Craft Should Exercise Caution.

Sunday-Tuesday... High pressure (~1020mb) will build over Florida
and the western Atlantic into next week. Favorable boating and dry
conditions are expected. Northeast winds at 6-12kts are forecast
Sunday before winds veer south-southeast into Monday afternoon at
10-15kts. South winds at 10-15kts are forecast on Tuesday. Seas
to 2-4ft are forecast with up to 5ft in the Gulf Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected through tonight into tomorrow.
However, a cold front will approach central Florida this evening,
with a chance for showers (around 30-40%) and a slight (20%) chance
for thunderstorms ahead of this boundary as it initially moves
into Lake/Volusia County later this evening. Any of this activity
will be capable of producing brief IFR/MVFR conditions, and have
added TEMPO groups for showers and MVFR vis from 2-4Z at KLEE and
KDAB where rain chances will be greatest. Then have VCSH for 3-4
hour windows between the hours of 3-8Z from KSFB/KISM/KTIX/KMLB
as any convection will weaken and diminish as it pushes southward
late this evening and overnight. South of KMLB have kept VCSH out
of the TAFs as rain chances are too low for any mention.

Have not included any TSRA or VCTS for the northern terminals at
this time with this activity as chances are low. However, if any
storms are able to develop, they could become strong, with the
main threats being strong wind gusts, lightning strikes, and small
hail. A low risk for an isolated severe storm will also exist
late this evening, mainly north of KMCO.

W/SW winds will increase to 10-13 knots with gusts to around 20
knots through late afternoon, with the sea breeze developing near
to south of KMLB and switching winds to the E/SE. Winds then
become W/NW 7-10 knots as front moves through tonight, and remain
out of the NW tomorrow around 10-14 knots with gusts to around 20
knots in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are expected into this evening
with a Red Flag Warning in effect until 7pm for Lake, Volusia,
Orange, Seminole, Osceola, and northern Brevard counties.
Sensitive fire weather conditions are expected to the south of
those counties.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Saturday. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect from 1pm to 7pm Saturday. Fire-
sensitive weather conditions will continue well into the forecast
as much drier air is expected over Florida this weekend into early
next week. Minimum RH values from 25-35% are forecast each day
through mid week next week over east central Florida, especially
over the interior. Winds will be relatively stronger on Saturday
(NW 10-15 mph) and Tuesday (WSW 8-14 mph) compared to Sunday and
Monday.

Very good to excellent dispersion is forecast today and Saturday.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  75  51  76 /  40   0   0   0
MCO  58  77  53  81 /  40   0   0   0
MLB  59  78  55  77 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  59  78  52  78 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  55  76  52  80 /  40   0   0   0
SFB  57  78  53  80 /  40   0   0   0
ORL  59  78  55  81 /  40   0   0   0
FPR  58  79  51  79 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-141-144-247-347-447.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-
     254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich