Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

890
FXUS62 KJAX 250533
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
133 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today

- Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Today:
 Isolated Strong to Severe Inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley.
Primary Storm Hazards: Localized Flooding & Gusty Winds.

- Hot and Humid - Daily Heat Index 95- 105F through Friday

- Historic Drought & Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated strong/severe storms possible Suwannee Valley and inland
SE GA today

- High Risk of Rip Currents Continues at all area beaches Today

Lingering showers and storms inland will gradually dissipate as they
shift northeastward early this morning. Showers will develop a
convergent band along and just off the SE GA coast which will
continue light rain into mid-morning. Otherwise, the region will be
between a persistent mid/upper level trough digging into TX and
ridging extending across the western Atlantic and SE US. This will
continue the parade of shortwaves rounding the ridge and passing
near inland SE GA in upper SW flow. Slightly drier air (PWATS 1.6-
1.8 in) begins to filter in from the SSE this afternoon which will
lower convective coverage to scattered over portions of NE FL and
along the coast as the diurnal sea breezes shift inland. Better
moisture (PWATs 2+ in) and instability will lead to more numerous
coverage over the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA this afternoon
into evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible in the late afternoon into early evening for Suwannee
Valley and inland SE GA where activity could be enhanced by passing
shortwaves aloft and boundary collisions. Stronger storms could
produce gusty winds, heavy downpours, localized flooding and
frequent lightning. The main limiting factor for stronger activity
will be weak shear. Convection will be slow to dissipate tonight and
linger over areas mainly west of HWY 301.

Highs will be above seasonable in NE FL in the low 90s with
seasonable temps in the mid/upper 80s in SE GA and along the coast.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
- Summer-like pattern continues
- Afternoon thunderstorms inland Tuesday, along I-95 Wednesday
- Heat index 95-105 degrees

Stagnant pattern continues as deep layer ridging over Bermuda builds
westward, pushing the "train" of shortwave impulse farther west. Due
to a drying southerly flow, and more typical levels of available
moisture, overage in showers and thunderstorms should decrease to
isolated to widely scattered along the sea breezes Tuesday
afternoon.

As the an upper trough dives from the Great Lakes and begins to
flatten Bermuda ridging, flow will veer southwesterly by Wednesday,
tapping into deeper moisture across the Gulf. This will lead to an
increase in thunderstorm coverage and pin the Atlantic sea breeze
around the I-95 corridor. Late day scattered to numerous showers are
likely to focus along the I-95 corridor as the Gulf breeze merges
into the stalled Atlantic sea breeze.

Hot and humid conditions will continue with temperatures rising into
the upper 80s and low 90s each day. The beaches may even reach the
90 degree mark Wednesday as the steering flow turns southwesterly.
Heat index will be around where it has been, peaking in the upper
90s to around 105.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
- Daily Thunderstorm Chances
- Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall Next Weekend

As upper troughing begins to carve out well to the north, the
Bermuda ridge will be flattened and shift southward, favoring a
moist southwest steering flow pattern into next weekend.

This general pattern indicates a dominant west coast sea breeze
regime Thursday and Friday with higher afternoon and evening storm
coverage east of Highway 301 toward the Atlantic coast.

Westerly flow will increase this weekend as a fast-moving shortwave
drifts eastward across the northern Gulf coast and then the local
forecast area. The feature will introduce favorable lift and modest
dynamics that elevated the potential for strong diurnal thunderstorm
activity along the dominant Gulf sea breeze and may promote
nocturnal thunderstorms Saturday night. This will bring another good
chance too add moisture to the dry soils. There is potential of a
`backdoor` cold to work southward Sunday or Monday next week that
could bring drier conditions.

Hot and humid areawide, including the beaches as offshore
establishes, to end the week before ridging backs down with an
incoming trough. Increasing cloud cover and convection will also
play a role in temperatures this weekend, but the forecast will
trend cooler with temps favoring more typical readings to end the
month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Lingering showers and storms will continue to weaken and shift
northeastward expected to pass in the vicinity of VQQ, JAX and SSI
between 06-09Z. Periods of MVFR ceilings at JAX and SSI this
morning, with lower visibility possible at VQQ. Breezy SE winds
around 10 kts develop again this afternoon in the wake of the inland
moving Atlantic sea breeze. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms may impact the TAF sites between 18-00Z. Heavier downpours
could lower visibilities to MVFR/IFR.

&&

.MARINE...


Showers and storms will move into the coastal waters early this
morning. Influence of Bermuda high pressure will continue south to
southeasterly winds over the waters through the week. Isolated to
scattered showers and offshore thunderstorms expected today and
Tuesday. Daily afternoon and evening surges are expected with winds
increasing to exercise caution levels through midweek. Atlantic high
pressure will then shift southward around Thursday this week,
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across our area as
prevailing winds become southerly.

Rip Currents:

Due to breezy onshore winds this afternoon, and surf around 3-4
feet, there will be a High Risk at all area beaches through this
afternoon and evening. High risk is likely to continue into Tuesday
due the afternoon southeasterly wind surge.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     AREAS OF HIGH INLAND DISPERSION FOR NE FL TODAY AND AREAWIDE
- Tuesday

A ridge of high pressure over Bermuda will extend its ridge axis
across the area resulting in a summery like pattern through the
week. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop with the Gulf
and Atlantic sea breeze and may become strong as the two sea breezes
collide between the I-75 and US 301 corridors this evening. A
decrease in thunderstorm coverage is expected Tuesday before
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday.

The Atlantic sea breeze will be dominant today and Tuesday, with
speeds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph. Areas of high
dispersion are expected inland over the next few days as breezy
southerly transport flow continues amid the hot, unstable afternoon
airmass.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
into early next week but patchy morning fog will be possible in
areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic
winds during periods of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  68  88  69 /  80  80  60  60
SSI  86  76  88  77 /  30  10  20  50
JAX  90  74  92  75 /  30  10  30  50
SGJ  89  76  90  76 /  20  10  30  30
GNV  92  73  93  73 /  40  50  40  70
OCF  91  73  91  73 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$