Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Jacksonville FL
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Jacksonville FL
Issued by: National Weather Service Jacksonville, FL |
Updated: 1:26 pm EDT Aug 12, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Chance T-storms
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Tonight
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Wednesday
 Sunny then T-storms Likely
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Wednesday Night
 Chance T-storms then Partly Cloudy
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Thursday
 Slight Chance T-storms then Chance T-storms
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Thursday Night
 Chance T-storms then Slight Chance Showers
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Friday
 Sunny then Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Saturday
 Chance T-storms then T-storms Likely
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Hi 94 °F |
Lo 77 °F |
Hi 94 °F |
Lo 78 °F |
Hi 96 °F |
Lo 78 °F |
Hi 94 °F |
Lo 79 °F |
Hi 93 °F |
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This Afternoon
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 105. Southeast wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Tonight
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Southeast wind 7 to 13 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. |
Wednesday
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Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 106. South wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Wednesday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind around 7 mph becoming southwest after midnight. |
Thursday
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A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. |
Thursday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. |
Friday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Saturday
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A slight chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Saturday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Sunday
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Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Sunday Night
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Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Monday
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Showers and thunderstorms likely. Sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Jacksonville FL.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
660
FXUS62 KJAX 121901
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
301 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
...HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS WEEK...
...FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG & WEST OF I-95 THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
...OCEAN SWELLS FROM DISTANT ERIN ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1022 millibars)
centered just offshore of Cape Hatteras. Meanwhile, weak low
pressure (1013 millibars) was situated along coastal Louisiana,
with a trough extending to the northwest of this feature across
the Deep South. Aloft...ridging was positioned along FL`s Atlantic
coast, while troughing was progressing across the southern Plains
states and the upper Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that slightly below
average PWAT values of 1.7 - 1.8 inches were shifting westward
across the Suwannee Valley and portions of inland southeast GA,
while deeper moisture values (PWATs around 2 inches) were
overspreading the rest of our area from east to west. Showers and
thunderstorms were gradually increasing in coverage along the
inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary as it crosses the I-95
corridor in northeast FL, with only isolated convection developing
elsewhere beneath an increasingly subsident air mass. Temperatures
have soared to the low and mid 90s inland as of 19Z, with
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 at coastal locations in
the wake of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze. Dewpoints
remain mostly in the 70s across our region, creating heat index
values of 100-107 at most locations.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Highs this afternoon will climb to the low and mid 90s, with
coastal highs remaining closer to 90 as the Atlantic sea breeze
boundary pushes inland this afternoon. The combination of heat and
humidity will push maximum heat index values to the 103-107
degree range this afternoon at most locations, which is just under
Heat Advisory criteria.
Low level moisture values should continue to gradually increase
from east to west this afternoon, especially for locations along
and south of Interstate 10 in northeast and north central FL.
Convection is expected to increase somewhat in coverage and
intensity as additional mesoscale boundaries interact along the
St. Johns River and points westward to the U.S. Highway 301
corridor during the late afternoon hours. Convective outflows
from thunderstorms developing to the west of the Suwannee River
will also migrate eastward across the I-75 corridor, setting up a
potential boundary collision along or just west of the U.S.
Highway 301 and 17 corridors towards sunset. Lingering dry air
aloft in place over our area may enhance the downdraft potential
later this afternoon and evening as mesoscale boundaries collide
and convection pulses, with a few strong storms possible for
locations along or just east of U.S.-301 and 17 through early
this evening. Stronger storms will be capable of producing
downburst winds of 40-50 mph, heavy downpours, and frequent
lightning strikes. Activity should be more isolated in coverage
for locations along the I-75 corridor and inland southeast GA,
and activity lingering into the evening hours should diminish by
midnight across our area. Leftover debris cloudiness will thin
out after midnight, and lows tonight will generally fall to the
mid 70s inland and around 80 at coastal locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
High pressure ridging aloft builds into the region for the short
term period, with the mid level high center expected to be almost
directly over the Florida Peninsula by Thursday Night. This high
and associated weak subsidence will taper rain chances just a bit,
and also allow a daily sea breeze regime to dominate. General
expectations will be for convection to start firing near the sea
breeze boundaries of both coasts late morning/early afternoon
followed by shifting further inland and converging across
central/inland FL and GA. Inland areas will therefore continue to
see the best chances for strong t`storms where this best
convergence will mainly happen, though of course cannot rule out
isolated strong updrafts elsewhere. High pressure aloft will help
keep daily max temps slightly above normal as well, with
widespread low to mid 90s and minimum temps in the mid to upper
70s forecast each day. Combined with the usual August humidity,
heat indices will flirty with Heat Advisory Criteria for most of
the area, generally in the 103 to 108 range.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
High pressure aloft slides westward into the Gulf/Gulf Coast area
Friday and into the weekend, with generally weak flow likely to
continue as well as a near typical sea breeze driven pattern. A
weak boundary approaches the region and becomes generally diffuse
by this weekend, which will shift the flow direction towards more
onshore and therefore likely pushing highest rain chances further
inland daily. High temps will persist generally above average
during the long term, which therefore will persist heat indices to
near Advisory criteria.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Erin, which is forecast to approach the
Bahamas by this weekend or early next week. Still too early to
predict most impacts - if any. However, higher chances for
elevated surf as well as rip currents could be in store towards
the latter half of the long term period. Make sure to maintain
tropical preparedness and awareness!
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Showers and thunderstorms developing along the inland moving
Atlantic sea breeze boundary will progress northward, with
convection paralleling the I-95 corridor through late afternoon,
with convection expected to then shift inland towards the
U.S.-301 corridor towards 00Z. Due to the scattered nature of this
convection this afternoon, PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions
during potentially heavy downpours were maintained through the
late afternoon hours at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals, with
activity potentially lingering into the early evening hours at the
inland terminals. IFR conditions during heavier downpours are more
likely at VQQ and GNV, where impacts may linger through around
02Z this evening. VFR conditions should then prevail by 04Z at the
regional terminals. East-southeasterly surface winds will
increase to 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals and CRG this
afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze progresses inland, with
southerly surface winds of 5-10 knots further inland shifting to
southeasterly later this afternoon. Surface winds will shift to
southerly once convection diminishes early this evening, with
speeds diminishing to around 5 knots inland and 5-10 knots at the
coastal terminals by 04Z. Surface winds will gradually shift to
southwesterly during the predawn and early morning hours, with
speeds then increasing to 5-10 knots by 14Z Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
High pressure centered near Cape Hatteras will sink southward
towards our local waters on Wednesday, with this feature continuing
to migrate southward later this week as troughing develops over the
southeastern states. Prevailing southerly winds will continue
through Wednesday, followed by prevailing southwesterly winds
developing ahead of an approaching trough on Thursday. Light
westerly winds are forecast as this trough settles over our local
waters on Friday, with onshore winds then developing by late
Saturday and Saturday night as the trough potentially organizes into
a weak low pressure center along the southeastern seaboard.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over our local waters will
continue through Friday, with an increase in coverage possible
during the upcoming weekend. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail both
near shore and offshore during the next several days.
Rip Currents: A longer period east-northeasterly ocean swell will
arrive at area beaches on Wednesday, maintaining a moderate risk
that will likely continue into the weekend. Long period and
potentially powerful swells from distant Tropical Cyclone Erin
will likely begin impacting our local beaches early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Southerly transport winds will prevail this afternoon, with
surface winds shifting to east-southeasterly and becoming breezy
at coastal locations. Marginally elevated mixing heights will
yield good daytime dispersion values at most inland locations,
with fair values forecast at coastal locations. Lighter south-
southwesterly transport winds are forecast on Wednesday, resulting
in fair daytime dispersion values, except poor values for north
central and coastal northeast FL. Southwesterly transport winds
will then strengthen on Thursday, with these winds combining with
elevated mixing heights to create good daytime dispersion values,
except fair values for north central and coastal northeast FL.
Marginally high values are possible on Thursday afternoon for
portions of inland southeast GA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 93 74 93 / 10 40 10 40
SSI 79 91 79 93 / 10 30 20 30
JAX 76 95 76 96 / 20 50 10 50
SGJ 77 92 77 94 / 20 50 20 50
GNV 74 94 76 95 / 20 60 10 50
OCF 75 93 76 94 / 20 70 10 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
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