Jacksonville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

585
FXUS62 KJAX 241047
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
547 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours tonight.
MVFR visibilities will likely develop just after midnight at VQQ,
with periods of IFR visibilities possible during the overnight
hours. Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible during the
predawn hours on Monday at GNV. Westerly surface winds of 5-10
knots will develop at the regional terminals by 15Z. The Atlantic
sea breeze boundary will push inland this afternoon, shifting
surface winds to southeasterly at 5-10 knots after 17Z at SGJ,
southerly at 5-10 knots after 19Z at SSI, and south-southeasterly
at CRG after 21Z. Winds will diminish at the inland terminals
towards sunset, with light south-southwesterly surface winds
expected during the evening hours at the coastal terminals.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Overnight surface depicts high pressure (1021 millibars)
blanketing the southeastern states. Aloft...zonal flow prevails
across the southern tier of the nation. Clear skies prevail
region-wide, with radiational cooling underway at inland
locations, while a light offshore breeze prevails along the
Atlantic coast. Temperatures and dewpoints at inland locations at
08Z generally ranged from the upper 30s to the lower 40s, while
values along the immediate coast were in the 45-50 degree range.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Zonal flow aloft will prevail, with surface ridging settling
directly over our region early this morning. We expect radiational
cooling to continue through sunrise, with widespread frost
formation expected during the predawn and early morning hours for
locations west of Interstate 95 in southeast GA and northeast FL,
where lows will fall to the mid and upper 30s, and a Frost
Advisory continues through 8 AM. Patchy to areas of frost will
extend into north central FL. Lows at coastal locations should
generally fall to the low to mid 40s just after sunrise.

A dry air mass, a light west-southwesterly breeze, and gradually
rising heights aloft will boost highs to the lower 70s at most
inland locations, which is near late November climatology. An
afternoon sea breeze will push westward towards I-95 before
sunset, keeping coastal highs a degree or two lower.

Another night of radiational cooling is anticipated tonight, with
lows generally falling to the 40-45 degree range inland and 45-50
degrees along the Atlantic coast and St. Johns River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

High pressure will remain over the region to start the upcoming
week. A trough stretching southward from low pressure over the
Great Lakes will drag a dry frontal boundary into the SE CONUS
during the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. This will
allow for the dry and calm weather conditions to continue through
Tuesday. Otherwise, pre-dawn fog on Monday will likely linger a
couple hours after sunrise before lifting. Daytime highs on Monday
will rest in the mid 70s across most of the area, with upper 70s
along north central Florida counties. By Tuesday, daytime highs
will be in the upper 70s with some locations in north central
Florida reaching into the lower 80s. Overnight lows on Monday will
be in the lower 50s along far northeast SE GA and along coastal
locations, but most of NE FL will get to the mid to upper 40s. By
Tuesday night, overnight lows in the 50s, with warmer temps along
the coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

The quiet weather will continue through midweek with temperatures
trending on the warmer side of normal into Thanksgiving. Rain
chances will begin to tick upward on Thanksgiving evening across
SE GA and towards the I-10 corridor in NE FL as another cold front
is expected to sweep through the region during the later half of
the week. Most of the guidance suggests the front will be through
NE FL by Friday afternoon, though some do suggest a slower trek
for the cold front passing through by Friday evening. After the
front`s passage, a return to cold temperatures similar to this
past weekend is expected during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

High pressure will settle directly over our local waters through
Monday night. Light prevailing offshore winds will keep seas both
near shore and offshore around 2 feet through Tuesday night. A
weakening frontal boundary will push across the southeastern
states on Tuesday, with this feature stalling over the Georgia
waters by midweek. Southwesterly winds will then strengthen on
Thanksgiving Day ahead of a stronger cold front that will dive
towards our area by Thursday night. Wind speeds will reach Caution
levels of 15-20 knots offshore early in the day, followed by
speeds increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels on Thursday night
and Friday. Meanwhile, speeds near shore will reach Caution levels
on Thursday evening, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible
on Friday. This frontal passage will likely be accompanied by
showers and a few thunderstorms from Thursday evening through
Friday morning. Strong northwesterly winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of this frontal passage on Friday and Friday
night.

Rip Currents: Low wave heights of 2 feet or less should keep a low
risk in place through midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

Low daytime dispersions are forecast this afternoon for most
locations, with the lowest dispersions along the north central
Florida counties. By Monday, the low dispersions will spread area-
wide as near calm winds remain. Drier air will remain in place
over the next few days, however min RH values will remain above
critical levels, moisture will begin to return on Tuesday as
another cold front nears the area from the northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  45  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  71  42  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  70  49  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  72  42  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  72  43  77  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422-425-522.

GA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$