Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

836
FXUS62 KJAX 201733
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
133 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...
...NUMEROUS DAILY STORMS RETURN MONDAY...

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)

Day number two of dangerous heat, particularly for sensitive
groups, featuring an region-wide Heat Advisory, highlighting heat
index values maxing out around 106-110F this afternoon.

The latest analysis does indicate the retrograding of the upper and
sfc ridge into the Gulf, setting up a moistening westerly flow
across the north zones in SE GA. Despite lingering warm air aloft
and weak lapse rates (around the 25th percentile), there may be
enough moisture+buoyancy to overcome the limitations and allow
isolated to scattered convection along the Gulf breeze as it pushes
inland. Storms that develop this afternoon are unlikely to reach
severe levels but a strong storm cannot be ruled out along outflow
boundary collisions or with localized storm mergers.

Moisture will be on the increase tonight as a rich pool of near-
tropical-grade precipitable water slides south into the area with a
surface trough. Convergence along the trough may lead to a isolated
showers through the predawn hours, especially along the coast. Lows
tonight will be on the warm side generally in the mid/upper 70s
inland to the low 80s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

High pressure ridging stretching over the northern Gulf will
gradually weaken and retreat as a backdoor cold front drops
southward toward the region into Tuesday. Flow shifts to WNW on
Monday ushering in abundant moisture (PWATs 2+ in.) that is
currently just to our north. Convective coverage increases to
scattered/numerous on Monday with the increase in moisture and a
few passing upper disturbances enhancing showers and storms along
the sea breezes. In the WNW flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will be
mainly pinned to the coast and the best chances for rain will be
across NE FL. Stronger storms may be possible especially along the
sea breeze merger likely near US 301/I-95 corridors. Showers and
storms will be slow to wane Monday evening with convection
lingering til midnight. A wetter, unsettled pattern begins on
Tuesday with the backdoor cold front approaching our area while
pre-frontal troughing will extend from eastern GA to the FL
panhandle. The trough (and likely weak low formation over south
GA), the approach of the front, combined with abundant moisture
(PWATs 2.1-2.5 in.) will lead to widespread showers and storms.
Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be the main concerns
with gusty winds possible with stronger storms. Hot temperatures
continue on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 90s, with
slightly lower highs on Tuesday in the low/mid 90s. With the
increase of cloud cover and rain for early week, this will help
keep heat indices at or just below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through next Sunday)

A decaying frontal boundary will remain draped across northern FL
into Friday as a broad area of low pressure develops along the
southern end of the boundary in the northern Gulf. With abundant
moisture and lingering frontal boundary, numerous to widespread
showers and storms are anticipated each afternoon Wednesday into
Thursday. High pressure then builds back into the region from the
east Friday into the weekend as the low pressure system shifts
into the NNW Gulf. Boundary layer becomes more southerly with the
high to the east. Drier air filters in potentially bringing a
return to more normal rain chances. With the increase in
convection, high temperatures drop to around seasonable in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Temperatures increase to above seasonable
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)

Extensive VFR cumulus field will continue through the afternoon a
few spotty showers may develop with best chances a KSGJ through
the evening. As a trough of low pressure slides south through the
region tonight, increasing cloud cover and shower chances will
increase. Winds will remain westerly to southwesterly this
afternoon then will gradually turn northwesterly behind the
trough during the morning hours Monday. Less influence from
ridging and increase in deep moisture will set the stage for
numerous showers and storms across the region tomorrow afternoon;
PROB30 groups have been introduced with TSRA beginning from
14z-16z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

An increasing offshore flow in response to troughing to the north
will keep the sea breezed mostly pinned this afternoon. A brief
southerly may occur across the outer waters tonight as the trough
approaches. Troughing will sharpen across the Georgia waters through
Tuesday with a low pressure potentially forming along it before it
shifts to the southwest toward the Gulf. Daily storm chances
increase during the first half of the upcoming week as the trough
meanders across the waters. Atlantic high pressure will build back
toward the area once again late this week, resulting in more typical
daily wind patterns.

Rip Currents: Low-end Moderate risk at local beaches through
Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites
through Tuesday, July 22

                Today    Monday    Tuesday
                -----------------------------
Jacksonville    103/2000  102/1942  101/1942
Gainesville     100/1942  102/1942  99/1907
Alma, GA        104/2000  102/1942  100/1942
Craig Airport   100/2000  98/2015   99/1977

Daily record high minimums at our designated climate sites
through Tuesday, July 22

                Today    Monday    Tuesday
                ----------------------------
Jacksonville    80/1872   81/1942   81/1872
Gainesville     77/2018   78/1894   77/2015
Alma, GA        79/1986   78/2015   76/2021
Craig Airport   79/2023   81/2023   78/2025

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  77  96  75 /  20  20  40  30
SSI  95  81  94  79 /  20  20  40  20
JAX  99  78  96  77 /  20  20  60  30
SGJ  96  78  94  76 /  20  20  60  50
GNV  98  76  95  75 /  20  10  70  50
OCF  96  76  94  76 /  20  10  70  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-
     237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$