Gainesville, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXUS62 KJAX 070617
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
117 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Nightly Fog Potential through the Weekend for Parts of SE GA and

- Record High Temperatures Possible Inland through Tuesday

- Thunderstorm chances for portions of the area Sunday, Monday

- Extreme Drought has Overspread our Entire Area

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today:

- Areas of dense fog expected along the nearshore GA waters through
Saturday morning. This sea fog spread onshore through the early
morning hours with fog expanding in coverage through mid Saturday
morning.

- Widely Isolated T-storms near the Flagler and St John county coast
will push inland from the I-95 corridor and move inland across north
central FL into the late afternoon hours.

Currently, skies are mostly clear with partly cloudy skies over
north central FL and across SE GA north of US-82 as remnant storm
debris clouds from yesterday`s late afternoon convection drifts
eastward to the GA coast. Low status and sea fog is hovering along
the SE GA coast mainly from Brunswick area northward, but has
remained as mostly stratus with inland extent. Some similarity to
the fog evolution as last night with fog expected to expand inland
from the SE GA coast while coastal sea fog spreads south towards
Palm coast by sunrise with some potential for a Dense Fog advisory
along I-95 and into much of SE GA during the early morning hours.

Today, fog over land should lift by mid morning with exception of
sea fog along the coast from near Saint Augustine north to St Simons
Island persisting until late morning before lifting to low stratus
and hovering over the nearshore waters through most of the day.
Southeast winds will resume 5-10 mph as surface high pressure to
the east shifts more over Bermuda through the day, allowing the
surface high pressure`s ridge axis to shift into NE FL late in
the day. While a seabreeze circulation will continue easterly winds
behind the Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph gusting to around 20 mph
along the coast and into the St Johns river to progressing to hwy
301 mid afternoon. Inland winds will become more southerly due to
the synoptic clockwise flow around the ridge axis as it moves
southward this afternoon.

Slightly drier air will move in from the east and limit convection
to only widely isolated showers and T`storms, mainly focused over
north central FL where the Atlantic seabreeze and Gulf seabreezes
merge near I-75 late this afternoon. There`s potential for a brief
heavy downpour, wind gusts up to around 40 mph, and small hail to
occur from the few T`storms that develop inland this afternoon,
but not expecting severe T`storms. Highs will rise into the mid 80s
inland with some spots reaching the upper 80s inland towards I-75
and allow for near record high temperatures over western portions
of the area (see climate section). Highs will be in the mid to
upper 70s along the coast due to onshore flow across the cooler
nearshore water temperatures.

Tonight, sea fog potential will re-develop again tonight from the
off the coast of the Jax beaches north along the SE GA coast and
will be slower to encroach onshore as winds become more southerly
and parallel the coast. Skies will remain mostly clear away from the
coast and patchy to areas of fog will develop inland due to some
radiational cooling over a moist low level airmass with dewpoints in
the low/mid 60s. All inland showers and T`storms will end before
10PM. Lows will fall into the lower 60s for most areas with mid 60s
over north central FL and the St Johns river to the NE FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances over SE GA Sunday
- Fog potential each night, which may become dense

High pressure over the Atlantic will shift a bit to the east as an
approaching cold front pushes towards the eastern CONUS, but stalls
north of the area on Sunday. Winds will primarily be from the
southwest over inland locations, with southerly-southeasterly flow
along the Atlantic coast on Sunday. Lingering moisture and the
southwesterly flow will bring the highest chances of diurnally
driven scattered showers east of the I-75 corridor towards the
Atlantic coast, with isolated storms possible over SE GA on Sunday
afternoon. By Sunday evening any remaining showers or storms will
push offshore. Could see some fog develop during the overnight hours
for those locations which did see some precipitation as winds weaken.
Monday, looks to be a bit drier as isolated showers will be confined
over along the Altamaha River Basin as the frontal boundary remains
stalled.

Daytime highs for the time period will be in the mid to upper 80s,
with a bit warmer temperatures on Monday as some locations near the
90 degree mark along inland NE FL. Lows will be in the lower to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Greatest chance for thunderstorms this period is on Thursday
- Nightly fog potential continues

Southerly winds into midweek as Bermuda high remains. Dry
conditions return Tuesday and much of Wednesday ahead an approaching
upper level trough. The trough shifts towards the SE CONUS around
the Thursday time frame, with scattered showers pushing through the
area, with storms possible during the afternoon hours. But timing is
still left to be determined as the Euro is a bit faster compared to
the GFS.

Temperatures trend mostly above climo for the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
The 06Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions at the Northeast
Florida terminals, but VLIFR ceilings at SSI as low stratus and sea
fog trend visibility to VLIFR as well by 08Z. The seafog will move
inland and southward to include the Duval county terminals by 08-10Z
and then onto SGJ with prevailing LIFR ceilings with restrictions
from 09-13Z for VLIFR ceilings and fog. The window for IFR ceilings
and MVFR fog at GNV will limit to after 10Z as the fog will be more
patchy inland.

Southeasterly winds will increase to around 10 knots today with fog
lifting by 15Z along the coast and 13-14Z inland, but low stratus
will keep MVFR conditions intact through 20Z at SSI before returning
at by 00Z. Widely isolated showers and storms will stay south of the
inland TAF sites, so no VCSH or VCTS noted for the afternoon. Winds
from the southeast will turn easterly behind the Atlantic seabreeze
10-12 knots at coastal and duval county TAF sites and 5-8 knots
inland after the seabreeze passes in the late afternoon, then winds
settle to around 5 knots towards 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Dense sea fog will continue over the nearshore Southeast Georgia
waters early this morning into the late morning hours. Dense sea
fog will further expand south across the nearshore Northeast
Florida waters through sunrise, leading to difficult navigation
conditions across the coastal waters this morning. Prevailing
visibilities will generally be low, especially within about 20
NM from the coast. Sea fog is likely to continue through the
weekend as warm moist air pushes across the water by southeast
to southerly winds. Otherwise, surface high pressure near
Bermuda with the axis westward into north central Florida, will
remain fairly stationary through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms will develop across the waters Sunday into
Monday.

Rip Currents: For today, breezy east and southeast winds of about
10 kts gusting to 15 kts coupled with nearly direct onshore swells
(with periods around 10 seconds) to the coast will support a
moderate to high risk of rip currents at area beaches. A moderate
to high risk will continue into the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Southeast Ga Sunday

High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through the
weekend, featuring an onshore southeasterly flow as well as chances
for showers inland through this time frame. A weakening frontal
boundary will bring greater chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms as well as patchy high dispersions by Sunday as
southwest winds develop across inland locations. Conditions then
look dry for early to mid next week before a stronger frontal system
approaches around Thursday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Nightly fog potential will continue
through the weekend and likely into next week as well. Slight
thunderstorm chances expected inland during the afternoon and
evening through Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 6:
KGNV: 87/2023
KAMG: 86/1961

March 7:
KGNV: 88/2023
KAMG: 86/1956

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 6:
KGNV: 69/1983

March 7:
KGNV: 66/1935

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  61  85  62 /  10  10  30  20
SSI  74  61  77  62 /   0  10  30  30
JAX  84  62  87  62 /  10  10  30  20
SGJ  78  62  84  62 /  10  10  30  20
GNV  87  62  87  61 /  20  10  30  10
OCF  87  62  87  61 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ450.

&&

$$